Tourism or Survival; Wales Must Choose

My intention was to start winding down this blog, spend more time with my wife, grand-children, books, Malbec . . . but things keep cropping up. That said, it’s very unlikely I shall undertake major new investigations. Diolch yn fawr.

I had planned a Miscellany this week, but then realised that all but one of the items was on tourism. So I dropped that one item – about a bunch of good-lifers pretending to be local and demanding funding so they can live on Gower – and I’ve gone for a selection of pieces on tourism.

FERODO / ‘AWEL Y FENAI’

It seems like a different world when a small town like Caernarfon could have a factory employing over 1,000 people, but it wasn’t so long ago. And there were other employers in our smaller towns.

In the south west there were big creameries making use of the locally-produced milk. These creameries closed and nowadays that milk is shipped over the border, providing thousands of jobs in England.

As an example of colonialist exploitation it’s on a par with Cuban tobacco leaf being shipped ‘home’ to Spain to be made into ‘Cuban’ cigars.

But I digress.

After a change of ownership and name, labour disputes, and other problems, the old Ferodo factory eventually closed for good some twenty years ago.

The Ferodo plant in its hey-day. Click to open in separate tab.

New plans for the site were announced just over 2 years ago, and you can catch up with my article here (scroll down) before pushing on to get up to speed with the latest news.

A number of sources have kept me updated, so let’s see what they have to report.

And where better to begin than by looking at the planning application, which is for:

 'Development of a holiday and leisure park to include 173 holiday lodges; 51 new-build holiday apartments; change of use of building to 4 holiday apartments; a leisure hub building; re-configuration and renovation of industrial units; provision of a private water treatment plant; and, associated car parking, landscaping, access and internal access roads.'

We can also see that the plan covers not only the old Ferodo site but also Plas Brereton. And if that sounds familiar, then it’s probably because Paul and Rowena Williams of Plas Glynllifon fame were talking of buying the place.

Go on, you know you want to – take a trip down Memory Lane.

Just over a week ago the developer, Mr Peter Brendan Gerrard O’Dowd, was promising untold benefits to the area from his Gwel y Fenai project. But planners seemed unconvinced, on a number of issues, including the impact on the Welsh language.

Speaking for Mr O’Dowd, agent Rhys Davies, of Cadnant Planning, promised the site would have bilingual signage. Wow!

Though, in fairness, planners had many more reservations about this project than just language impact. Which explains why it was rejected by councillors on Monday.

Though you’ll see from the report that a number of councillors spoke up in support of the project, or else urged planners to continue discussions with Mr O’Dowd. I fear that some councillors in Gwynedd have reached a point where they genuinely believe that low pay, low skill, tourism jobs are the best our people can – or should – aspire to.

I hope I’m wrong.

Another source, who worked at Ferodo, reminds me that one reason the site has lain empty for so long is the asbestos. Either still in situ, or else in the sealed tip on site. Though this source sees no real problem with building on adequately sealed asbestos tips:

'With a cover of several feet depth of inert material and soil, mobile homes or lodges could safely stand on top of the tip as no noxious gases would be generated by the buried material.'

This source’s concerns focus on where the money for the investment is coming from. So let’s give this some thought.

O’Dowd is a property speculator. If we look at his Maybrook company we see assets of over £11m pounds. Which looks fine. But most of the £11m is accounted for by property he’s bought with loans. The rest could be explained by overvaluing that property.

The 11 loans taken out before December 2017 have all been repaid. Most of these loans were with banks you and I would recognise. Since then, there have been 7 further loans, but none after October 2018. And these loans are with less recognisable institutions.

The two most recent loans were taken out with Together Commercial Finance of Manchester, who got in so deep and lost so much with Paul and Rowena Williams. You may remember that Together also funded the purchase of Llangefni Shire Hall.

In fact, Together has appeared on this blog a number of times, invariably associated with rather iffy companies and individuals. It’s a lender of last resort, where you go when banks turn you down.

In fact, Together may be worthy of investigation itself.

The suggestion is that Mr O’Dowd is over-reaching himself with this £70m+ project, because it’s impossible to see where the money will come from.

To progress this project, Bryn Coch Ltd was formed. As far as I can see, all the shares are owned by O’Dowd’s other company, Maybrook Investments Ltd. Bryn Coch’s only asset appears to be the Ferodo site, for which it paid 195,000 + VAT.

(But not all the site is owned by Bryn Coch Ltd. Go to the plan on the title document I’ve just linked to and you’ll see that part of the site is covered by title number WA965076. Here is the relevant title document.)

Click to open in separate tab

Yet in the latest accounts, Mr O’Dowd values that land at £5.4m. And it might be worth that, with planning permission. But it doesn’t have planning permission, and without it that land is worth no more than the £195,000 + VAT that was paid for it.

Maybe less.

I suspect Mr O’Dowd may not be alone in this venture. There may be associates yet to be identified. Until we know the full story, planning permission should be rejected. And even if the project does become more transparent, the planners’ objections remain valid.

And those objections will not be overcome by the magnanimous gesture of bilingual signs in a town where 85% of the population speaks Welsh.

Before moving on, I just want to touch on Mr O’Dowd’s new companies, and his other holdings in Gwynedd.

Maybrook Investments Ltd has two holdings on Penamser Road in Porthmadog. (The Pwllheli road.) Title numbers CYM135945, CYM255694. One is the old Gelert outdoor clothing unit, the other, nearby land.

Then, through new company, Lendline (NW) Ltd, Peter O’Dowd owns Parciau Farm – or part of it – which lies just across the A487 from the old Ferodo site. Lendline is owned by Maybrook Investments.

Finally, moving to Bangor, we find that another new company, Maybrook Investments (Parc Menai) Ltd, owns land either side of Penrhos Road, close by the A487, and not far from the A55 Expressway.

Land in two parcels: one to the south west of Graig House, Capel y Graig, title number WA533768; and the other to the west of Nant y Mount, Vaynol Park, title number CYM71442.

I can’t help wondering what has attracted Peter O’Dowd to Gwynedd. And why he’s bought the land he’s bought. Does he know something we don’t?

Or someone?

CARRY ON GLAMPING

There was a Twitter dispute last week with the owners of a new glamping venture near Pwllheli. I got roped in and found myself blocked by the proprietors of Brook Cottage Shepherd Huts.

As you might have guessed, the spat was over that toe-curlingly twee English name.

Also, that the venture got a £50,000 loan from the Development Bank of Wales. I mean, Wales doesn’t already have enough glamping sites? Those involved couldn’t have raised the money they needed from Barclays or some other bank?

The two behind this exciting venture are Jonathan Gooders and Mark Barrow, who were previously in the fine arts business according to this piece from NorthWalesLive. Their ignorance of Wales would seem to be exposed by their belief that Welsh shepherds lived in glamping sheds.

Click to open in separate tab

The company involved in this exciting venture at Y Ffor is Brook Cottage Holidays Ltd, formed just over a year ago. The two directors and shareholders are, as we would expect, Gooders and Barrow. On the Certificate of Incorporation both describe themselves defiantly as ‘English’.

I mention this because most people use ‘British’. I would obviously describe myself as ‘Welsh’, but it’s often the Ukip types who go with ‘English’.

But this is not their first company.

Let’s go back to what I wrote earlier, and the quote in NorthWalesLive, that said:

'Jonathan Gooders and Mark Barrow both have a background in fine art and wanted to put this and a passion for nature into redeveloping land near their new home at Y Ffor, near Pwllheli.'

But that’s not the full story. There are other recent companies that have nothing to do with ‘fine art’.

Certainly, Gooders and Barrow ran a company called Framers (London) Ltd, and Barrow may even have had a small gallery. Though Mark Barrow Fine Art (formerly Modern British Artists) seems to have folded. Certainly, the Twitter account hasn’t been used for a few years.

What really interests me is that Jonathan Gooders has been involved in a number of companies that have nothing to do with fine art, and all of which were dissolved around the time they moved to Wales. Three on the same day!

Barrow was also involved in at least one. Here they are:

Doesn’t inspire confidence does it?

This glittering business record might explain why Jonathan Gooders and Mark Barrow couldn’t get a loan from a ‘High Street’ bank. (Remember them?) It should also have been the reason why the Development Bank of Wales turned them down.

So I just hope that the £50,000 of our money is safe. But even if it is, don’t expect it to create any jobs.

But rest easy – for they have a wealth of experience in tourism and glamping.

TOURISM MAKING LIFE DIFFICULT FOR LOCALS

Now it’s time to move south, to Carmarthenshire, land of my great-grandfathers. And to be precise, to Cydweli (Kidwelly), which lies between the county’s two metropolises of Carmarthen and Llanelli.

An interesting town in many ways. Let me explain.

Something I’ve noticed over the past 50 years or so is that in rural areas the Labour Party is now almost entirely dependent for members and active supporters on people who’ve moved in. Invariably from England.

An example would be the we-know-best harridans trying to take over Knighton in Powys and dictate to everyone else.

Which might make Cydweli the most westerly community in Wales where the Labour Party is still native-run, just. But even here, in recent years the thinning ranks have been swelled by an influx of Guardian-reading know-alls who feel Cydweli can’t manage without their input.

Back to the narrative.

Earlier, when discussing plans for the old Ferodo site in Caernarfon, I suggested that some councillors may have given up on their communities seeing any jobs better than those provided by tourism. And that’s what might have happened in Cydweli.

For the Labour gang controlling Kidwelly Community Hub CIC has been handed £270,000 by the ‘Welsh Government’ for the ‘Black Cat Tourism Strategy’.

This seeks to ‘grow the visitor economy’ – at any price.

The no-expense-spared launch of Kidwelly’s Black Cat tourism strategy. Click to open in separate tab

The Black Cat project lead is Suki Baynton, who recently arrived from the Cynon Valley, where I’m told she was Contaminated Land Officer for Rhondda Cynon Taf council. She was certainly Property Manager for Ashfield Solutions for a while.

We see Suki in the above picture, on the right, in the red coat.

Suki has also launched her own company, Room Publishing Ltd. The website tells me it’s a load of New Age bollocks; but then, I’m a cynical old bastard who grew up in the real world.

Back to Cydweli, and the growing problems being experienced by locals as the county council and others seek to ‘grow the visitor economy’. (Why not just be honest and say, ‘We want lots more tourists’?)

For, clearly, tourists visiting the holiday homes and the Airbnb rents in this rather cramped old town are going to cause parking and other problems. Sure enough, this is what’s happening, and it’s pissing off the locals.

As my source puts it – ‘This is what happens when a Plaid Cymru council (Carmarthenshire) prioritises tourism and starts closing Welsh medium schools in surrounding villages.’

To help you make sense of what else he has to say I suggest you open this Google map of the town. Now read on . . .

'THE CASTLE AREA

There’s a cluster of holiday rentals inside the town walls of Bailey Street and Castle Street and Cadw have installed a barrier stopping parking to the little car park next to the castle. 
This has resulted in lots of tourist parking on New Street, the main through road. Residents, when they arrive home from work, are finding the free parking outside their homes occupied by visitors (sometimes with trailers of kayaks and jet-skis). So residents have been parking of the pavements and double yellows causing obstruction or getting parking tickets.

GLANYRAFON

There is a free car park at Glanyrafon (the overflow) which has been used by residents for many years. Now there is a plan to build a new grant funded museum next to it, on the nature reserve. This is the ‘History Shed’ relocated from Laugharne, a kind of WW2 Spitfires and gas masks hobby attraction. 
The adjacent car park, which has been free to residents, will now be paid parking, reserved for visitors. Residents of Bridge Street and New Street will lose their free parking.

PARC PENDRE

Carmarthenshire Country Council intends to close two schools. Ysgol Gymraeg Gwenllian in Station Road within the town and also Ysgol Gymraeg Mynyddygarreg in the nearby village (where children from Trimsaran also attend). It is to be replaced by a new consolidated school at Parc Pendre within the town behind the Coop. 
It’s anticipated there will be parking chaos due to the school run. Parents dropping off the kids to attend school arriving by car from further up the Gwendraeth valleys. This was anticipated in the plans and is to be mitigated with ‘enhanced parking controls.’ 
This involves new double yellows in Parc Pendre and a residential parking scheme in surrounding streets. Residents will be charged £30pa for a permit.'

Without recourse to a crystal ball, tea leaves, or seaweed (great-aunt Fastidia’s favourite), I can confidently predict Cydweli’s future . . . properties will be bought up by ‘investors’, coming from that enchanted land, ‘Away’, at prices few locals can afford.

This will result in the town losing its Welsh identity, the age profile will change for the worse, the rugby club will close, one or two pubs, and, as I can testify from my area, there’ll be no need for the new school – because there’ll be so few kids living locally.

And all this will have been achieved by ‘growing the visitor economy’!

Jobs! Did I mention jobs? No, because there won’t be any, this is ‘Welsh’ tourism.

UPDATE 26.11.2021: My source has now heard from Carmarthenshire County Council Highways Officer that –

All permanent residents in Cydweli will be charged £30 per household for a parking permit. All properties will be eligible to apply for a permit to park, even those with existing off-street parking and all properties run as holiday homes, self-catering lets, AirB&B will all be able to apply for a business permit for their guests. HMRC documents such as a tax code in England will be acceptable documentation for a permit.

BEWARE OF SMOKESCREENS AND VIRTUE SIGNALLING

Not long ago, in a wonderful example of those who are unaffected by the decisions they take affecting the lives of Welsh people, the ‘progressive’ consensus in Corruption Bay – i.e. Labour and Plaid Cymru – abolished Right to Buy.

In the village where I live most of the council houses had been bought by their Welsh tenants. Without the option of RtB most of them had little hope of buying a property in their own community. And it’s the same in other villages in the area. With Aberdyfi being the stand-out example.

The reason for that is outsiders snapping up properties; some for holiday homes, others because people want to move here permanently. With many more of the latter than the former.

Yet a bunch of virtue signallers see nothing wrong in depriving Welsh working class people of their only hope of owning a property in their home community. Perhaps they believe the lower orders must be cared for, and dictated to, as if they were children, by those who have sipped at the fount of socialist knowledge.

There were so many other options the leftists could have adopted that would not have disadvantaged our people, but they weren’t prepared to consider them.

And now those ‘progressives’ are in some kind of informal coalition down in the swamp. Which is more nonsense; for despite periodic bouts of foot-stamping from Plaid Cymru they’ve always been in alliance. Nobody was ever fooled.

One of the problems this repulsive mob of mediocrities pledges to confront is that of Welsh people being forced out of their communities by rising house prices. Now I’m a firm believer that to confront and deal with any issue one must first understand it.

Unfortunately, there are those among us, supported by influences external to Wales, who wish to misinterpret the crisis in our rural and coastal areas.

Click to open in separate tab

Canary is a left wing English publication, fighting what can no longer be called class war because the working class has been alienated by the modern left’s obsessions with gender, race and climate.

It’s no longer even ideological. It’s a kind of cult-like belief in certain absurdities, as we saw when Undod (mentioned in the panel above) and its allies sought to take over Yes Cymru earlier this year.

The left wants to view the crisis in rural and coastal Wales as some fault of the capitalist system; as part of a bigger, UK-wide, ‘housing crisis’. Without ever addressing the influx of good-lifers, retirees and the rest.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. Jennie Bibbings works for Shelter Cymru. This is one of the forty-odd ‘homelessness’ outfits funded with our money by the so-called ‘Welsh Government’. Done for no better reason than to employ otherwise unemployable Labour-supporting graduates and drop-outs from our oversized universities.

Click to open in separate tab.

If Jennie Bibbings genuinely believes that our rural and coastal areas would still have a housing problem without ‘2nd homers/saes’, then she’s a fool. But she doesn’t believe that. She’s merely spouting the leftist line.

Which believes that only nationalists care about the destruction of Welsh communities. And because ‘All nationalism is evil’ the only acceptable response is to either ignore such concerns entirely or else subsume them into something bigger that can more comfortably be supported.

So I urge you to be on your guard for attempts to cloud the issue and misrepresent the crisis facing us. These attempts will come from the socialist consensus in Corruption Bay and its ideological soul-mates elsewhere in Wales, and outside of Wales.

‘TOURISM, TOURISM, WHAT BULLSHIT IS SPOUTED IN THY NAME’

Some forty years ago, not long after the start of the Meibion Glyndŵr campaign, I was watching a television programme in which the late Prys Edwards, then head of the Wales Tourist Board, was being interviewed and the subject of holiday homes came up.

Edwards seemed almost offended and asked, ‘You surely aren’t suggesting that holiday homes have anything to do with tourism?’ The interviewer let him get away with it and the discussion moved on.

Prys Edwards. Click to open in separate tab

I use that example because it’s symptomatic of attitudes in Wales, the dissociative thinking that results in us being unable to honestly identify the problems facing us, and, as a result, solving them.

Despite what Prys Edwards wanted us to believe, holiday homes are an inevitable consequence of tourism. The clue is in the name.

I have yet to meet anyone who has bought a holiday home in an area with which they did not already have some familiarity from having taken holidays there. Have you?

And yet, as I’ve already said, I suspect that holiday homes will be used as a distraction from the bigger problem to which I have alluded. Which would be a terrible mistake, and a betrayal of our people.

For the problem of locals being priced out of the communities in which they were born and raised, and the anglicising of those communities, can not be resolved until we accept that permanent in-migration is a bigger factor than holiday homes.

This article in the Guardian last week, focusing on Llandudoch, was headlined, ‘Cultural genocide by bank transfer’. The words were those of veteran language campaigner Ffred Ffrancis.

Who also said, ‘ . . . the problem was being turbo-charged by the “flight” from cities caused by Covid’. A reference to people buying properties in Wales in order to work from ‘home’.

And he’s right. But the problem won’t go away with Covid-19.

We, as a nation, and more especially, Welsh speaking communities, are facing an existential threat to our existence. And it all stems from tourism.

Whether it’s the mass tourism that destroyed the Welshness of Abergele and Borth, or the more up-market tourism that is making us strangers from Rhossilli to Rhosneigr.

We are past the stage where consultations and working groups serve any useful purpose – these are just delaying tactics employed by a Vichy administration under orders from its masters in London. We need action. And we know what that action must be.

The ‘Welsh Government’ must introduce legislation that limits who can buy domestic property in Wales.

There can be no more words. No more dithering. No more obfuscation. No more passing the buck. Either the ‘Welsh Government’ acts, and acts quickly, or there’s a growing risk that others will.

Faced with cultural genocide, many will argue that any action will be justified.

♦ END ♦

 




14 thoughts on “Tourism or Survival; Wales Must Choose

  1. Dafis

    Jac In one of your recent tweets you commented -……. ” ‘A private debate at Plaid’s virtual conference’. Mmm, this is how @YesCymru was taken over.https://www. ..” I suspect that the take over of Plaid predated that of YC. After all the “closed shop” election of Alun Ffred ( remember him ?) was a classic example of how to fix an outcome. These schemers within Plaid have been at it for a while and know how to get away with it. At least there were elements within and around YC willing to kick up a fuss when pirates took over that ship although the viability of that movement remains in the balance.

    1. Even before Covid Plaid managed to stitch up the election you mention – held at the Grand Theatre in Swansea – by deciding who was and who wasn’t allowed in.

      1. Dafis

        There are people in and around the Plaid leadership who would make Feliks Dzierżyński and others who built up the early Soviet political police extremely envious. As yet Plaid leaders have refrained from bumping anyone off ( as far as I know !) but that might come in the next phase as they now have the right party as bedfellows with a short track record in unexplained deaths. Don’t cross Carwyn/Mark/Adam or you might get an axe in yer ‘ead !

  2. Dafis

    In migration by Saeson, or those who want to be Saeson, is the big threat because they either buy homes to live in most of the time or acquire “second homes” to live in some of the time and at other times rent out to their chums. Then comes the businesses of various sizes from one house to several who exist to cater for people who want a holiday in a nice place. Then we have the camping sites, the glamping sites, caravan sites and any old hole that a punter with or without his/her family can climb into for a stay. Beyond all this kind of “holiday market” for lack of a better term comes those government funded parasites – housing associations – who seem to make it their mission to ship in deserving cases from beyond Clawdd Offa because there is a shortage of deserving cases this side of the Clawdd. Now I can appreciate these H.A’s being a bit fussy about local prospective tenants but their track record of fetching in people with severe anti social profiles is not very impressive. So if you want to give a wanker a chance give it to the local wanker first ! Or is that too complex a proposition ?

    So back to the point, or the many points in all this. Government has made a fine mess or presided over the deteriorating situation. In classic Labour -Plaid form they now announce a big new deal, in fact an intention to deal which is not really a deal at all until we see some evidence of achievement. My money is on not much ever happening. Adam will perform his periodic rhetoric rich act, Mark will tell us how those mean bastards in London won’t fund his grand plan and Boris’ secret ( or not so secret ) army of colonial land grabbers will carry on cheerfully until we’re all living on a reservation, if we are lucky enough to get there.

  3. John Ball

    It’s difficult not to add anything original to my earlier thoughts.
    Who’s doing the due diligence?
    Who’s asking the questions in the Senedd; or councils for that matter?
    Plaid Cymru is irrelevant and totally incapable of acting in any way, local or national, as a “nationalist” party.
    And the Bank of Wales…weird scheme, right words (innovative; green) and an English accent. No problem, how much would you like?

    1. Hi John, yes, you’re right about the DBW. There’s a guy I’ve written about a couple of times, based in Cardigan, who’s had quite a few loans. One for a company of his in London. I submitted a FoI but never got a response.

      Last I heard he may have gone bankrupt, owing DBW a lot of money. OUR money.

  4. David Smith

    Probably a bit of a gross generalisation, but I think you have to be a bit of a big ‘I am’ to own a holiday home, and that’s putting it nicely. A comparable archetype to the brash, flashy pricks who drive BMWs or Mercs and are always right up your arse. And if anyone thinks this is the ‘politics of envy’, if I had 250 grand or so spare to put towards holidaying endeavours, I’d take 250 holidays around the world over my lifetime, and not tie myself to perpetual jollies to Abbasock or BenLeck.

    1. There’s no question that a holiday home is a kind of status symbol for the upwardly mobile. Plus, of course, it’s a very good investment. Making it less attractive as an investment would go some way to reducing the demand. And also the pressure faced by so many communities.

      1. David Smith

        What other country on the planet stands back and lets outside speculators do what they will to the detriment of the indigenous? I hope they’re getting to that loophole that allows them to pay business rates instead of council tax by letting to their mates a couple of weeks a year, or whatever it was soon too.

        1. Neil Singleton

          As a retired surveyor and valuer, I was always taught that the value of something was what someone was prepared to pay for it. This is certainly the case in respect of houses. Whilst many, including myself, are concerned about the influx of second home owners (not from just England, but from other parts of Wales), the question I cannot ever recall being put, is the role which local/indigenous property owners play in this scenario. In other words, how are local house owners to be encouraged (or is it forced) to sell their properties to other indigenous purchasers, at lower values than can be obtained on the open market from second home owners? Demand from “outsiders” could conceivably be restricted to some degree by legislation, planning laws etc. but, in my opinion, this would not reduce such demand significantly, whilst at the same time, potentially upsetting local vendors wishing to sell at the highest value obtainable.

          1. Dafis

            You raise a legitimate question there Neil, one which doesn’t enter the debate very frequently although most of us who ever had some contact with the buying and selling of a home would be well aware of this aspect of the issue. Interference with “market forces” is a policy best avoided unless there is an acute crisis. I believe that we are now in that state of crisis, indeed have been for the last 20 years or more but escalating from a moderately low base as the Meibion Glyndwr saga contrived to shove much of the discussion of the subject under the rug for a while.

            My take on the whole subject is rather convoluted. At the abstract level I would have no objection to a massive influx of English and other races into “nice bits” of Wales if most of them came with an urge to integrate culturally and linguistically. That would retain the character of the areas settled as the identity would modify marginally. However the reality of the experience of recent decades is, as said by Ffred Ffransis and quoted by Jac, “Cultural genocide by bank transfer”. Covid has provided some sort of accelerant, but this problem was there ages ago.

            Other regional authorities have seen fit to regulate the market in their territory in response to the second home and affordability crises ( not always the same but massive overlap) . What makes it a more touchy subject here is that anything done in defence of Welsh culture is immediately branded as racist or fascist by those who’s own attitudes and motives will not stand up to much closer scrutiny.

            It occurs to me that Welsh government might look at compensating vendors for any “market gap” when selling to local purchasers. I hear the immediate response of those opposed – what a waste of public money – yet the same people are ominously silent when that same Welsh government dishes out millions to H.A’s who indiscriminately resettle all kinds of misfits from outside of Wales into our communities when they have a real challenge to meet within Wales. Seeing the problem in it entirety is something our government and opposition are notably unable to do. Or if they can see it they steadfastly refuse to act on the obvious.

            1. David Robins

              Plugging the market gap is an interesting idea, Dafis. The mechanics of it look quite challenging. You’d have to have an objective basis for determining the market value. Average of three surveyors’ opinions? No collusion, obviously, perish the thought. Average of local prices for that house type? What if it’s unique?

              The only objective value is a sale price, so perhaps the subsidy provision can only be triggered by a homeless local gazumping an incomer? But then what would be the margin allowed above the sale price to persuade the vendor to change horses? Would that be factored in, with dodgy dealings on all sides (Adam sells to Beti with the help of Carl, who never wanted the house but, for a fee, will make Adam richer at the taxpayers’ expense: Carl operates as a professional gazumping victim)? To avoid the higher price, the gazumping would need statutory backing, but are there still loopholes unclosed? The model that comes to mind is export licences for works of art, where museums are given time to match the auction price.

              What is the status of Welshgov’s money now embedded in the value of Beti’s home? Is it a grant? Interest-free loan? Shared equity? Written-off, or recycled through future re-sale?

              1. Dafis

                What the market gap exposes is the massive difference in “ability to pay” which might open yet another can of worms around regional differences in pay rates and employment prospects.

                How to regulate and “finance” any kind of scheme based on market gap is not something I’ve dwelled on at length. It is something that branches of government should have studied given the problems that exist in various parts of UK but London has always adhered to the good old “let the market rip” approach to housing while mouthing platitudes about ramping up building programmes, defending communities etc.

                Your closing question on the treatment of any government money sunk into such deals is very relevant and the scope for scamming such provisions would need to be examined and constrained as far as possible. As you probably know whenever a set of rules are laid out a segment of professional advisors make it their business to explore boundaries and find holes which can be exploited. Market gap support schemes would most likely attract that kind of attention and need fine tuning without ever shutting out 100% of the risks associated.

          2. David Smith

            The best, most sustainable way to deliver it would be as an ancillary benefit. In other words, independence, grow our economy to the point where actors in the marketplace are on an equal footing. And yes, I broadly categorised second home owners as flash gits but it doesn’t mean they are unequivocally awful people, or are part of some deliberately coordinated colonisation or plantation effort, nor are locals who sell to them quislings or collaborators. They are individuals exercising self interest, participants in a system which has benefited them, and which threatens Welsh heartland communities. It is the system that needs to change, and improvements will follow from that.

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