Senedd Elections 2021

I’M IN SEMI-RETIREMENT AND THIS BLOG IS WINDING DOWN. I INTEND CALLING IT A DAY SOON AFTER THIS YEAR’S SENEDD ELECTIONS. POSTINGS WILL NOW BE LESS FREQUENT AND I WILL NOT UNDERTAKE ANY MAJOR NEW INVESTIGATIONS. DIOLCH YN FAWR.

This is the first of my promised reviews of next month’s elections. This initial foray into a crowded field is longer than intended, so take your time.

I’ve concentrated on those parties with a chance of winning seats, so apologies to the Communist Party of Britain, Captain Beany, the Freedom Alliance, the Socialist Party of Great Britain, the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition, the Welsh Christian Party, the Workers Party, and any others I may have missed.

A more specific and detailed approach may follow in subsequent pieces . . . unless I lose interest entirely.

The risk of simply switching off is real, partly because we lack inspiring politicians and partly because the liars and the bullshitters are already at work and – unchallenged by our wonderful media – spewing forth all manner of nonsense.

Not content with being conduits for misinformation certain elements of the media themselves contribute to the confusion by pretending that only ‘establishment’ parties are standing. Or maybe they believe that only establishment parties should be heard.

WHO’S STANDING?

This time round there are more candidates representing a wider range of political perspectives than in any previous Assembly / Senedd elections. From the genuinely nationalist Gwlad to the extremes of the BritNat fringe.

While many are trying to paint these elections as being about Covid, the truth is that the big question lurking in the shadows is whether Wales should become independent or cease to exist in any meaningful form.

As for what we have now, there are few ready to speak up for it. In fact, I’m amazed that anyone has the chutzpah to defend devolution on the record of the past 22 years.

LABOUR

Which might explain why the Labour Party is asking for another 5 years to do the things it’s failed to do over the past two decades and more. An example would be introducing a register of lobbyists.

On BBC Radio 4 last week, Vaughan Gething, the ‘Welsh Government’s health minister, told listeners that his party was “entirely open” to introducing such a register. Yet they could have done so in January 2018. And even earlier in 2013.

The truth is that, in Wales, the term ‘lobbyist’ is interchangeable with ‘third sector’. And the third sector is ‘Welsh’ Labour’s private army, soaking up hundreds of millions of pounds of public money in providing sinecures for Labour cronies, in return for which the third sector will support Labour in any way it can, including attacking Labour’s opponents.

Image BBC. (I used to have a suit like that, but it was more of a powder blue, with narrower lapels.)

Perhaps the major problem for Labour is that it’s beginning to look clapped out, devoid of fresh ideas, and relying more than ever on voters’ blind, family loyalty – and not being, ‘them wicked Tories’.

Which no longer works, as we saw in the December 2019 UK general election, when Welsh Labour seats fell to, ‘them wicked Tories’. More may go the same way next month. Certainly, there’s not a hope in Hell of Labour getting near the 30 seats needed to form an administration.

That said, there is a widespread perception that Labour is faring less badly here in the popularity stakes than in England. (In Scotland, of course, Labour is now neck-and-neck with the Monster Raving Loony Party.)

Why this might be so mystifies me. Could it be the magnetic personality of Mark Drakeford? Or maybe the abundance of talent we see lined up behind him? Or could it be that the other ‘major’ parties are so unappealing that by comparison any bunch of muppets might look half competent?

(Please don’t think that I’m trying to insult muppets by comparing them to ‘Welsh’ Labour politicians!)

Some argue that Drakeford has handled the pandemic and its restrictions better than Boris Johnson. I don’t buy that. Labour in Wales clearly panicked when restrictions on pubs, gyms and other establishments were lifted in England, and this explains why they brought forward the lifting of restrictions in Wales . . . which now take effect before the elections on May 6 rather than after.

Of course, there may be another explanation for the timing. If so, then it escapes me. I’m open to suggestions.

What’s not in doubt is that Labour will need all the help it can get. Poll findings published last Friday by YouGov put Labour on just 29%, with the Conservatives romping ahead on 43%. These are of course UK figures, but even so, Labour is also in trouble in Wales.

The only question is how far short of the target 30 seats Labour will fall.

PLAID CYMRU

I’m turning to Plaid Cymru now not because it’s the second largest party in Wales (it’s not, by a long way) but because to have any hope of staying in control Labour will probably need to go into coalition with Plaid Cymru.

And the terms of this coalition have been discussed for months. So it makes sense to lump Plaid Cymru in with Labour. So remember, folks . . .

A vote for Plaid Cymru will be a vote for Labour.

Yes, Plaid Cymru talks of winning the election, and of becoming the largest party, but the kindest way of describing such suggestions is wishful thinking.

Because for many years Plaid Cymru has been drifting ever further left. This course to political irrelevance might appear to have changed with the crushing defeat inflicted by party members on far left leader Leanne Wood in 2018, but that would be to misinterpret the situation.

The 77.7% that voted against Leanne Wood is the silent majority, playing little part in the running of the party. Those who support Wood – a vociferous and nasty minority – still control the party’s direction of travel. Largely through intimidation.

Intimidation of the kind that can get a Member of the Senedd to apologise for daring believe that a person with a penis and testicles could be anything other than a woman. And worse, suggesting that transphobia may be rather less heinous and genocidal than pushing Jewish children into gas chambers.

Happier times. Helen Mary Jones MS meets Teifi, and a dog’s best friend, Aled Gwyn Williams.

These are the sort of people that might reluctantly agree to take action against child trafficking, but only on condition that it didn’t involve discrimination against the ‘child-trafficking community’. Because in their world just everyone belongs to a ‘community’ – which is of course oppressed – except those who are part of the white, western patriarchal system, which does the oppressing.

What a fucked-up world these lunatics have invented! Worse, many of them genuinely believe they are living this nightmare. Others just encourage them in that belief.

Even figurehead party leader Adam Price was forced to grovel to this carnival of grotesques. Because they call the shots nowadays in Plaid Cymru. Them and the anti-Semites, and those who believe that the priority for Wales should be extending Harri Webb’s Green Desert to the whole country.

The long-gone Lamb Inn, Merthyr, which Dic Penderyn is said to have frequented, and where a young Jac sank many a pint. Happy days!

A green desert with no nation, no jobs (not for us, anyway), no homes; an emptiness exploited by foreign enviroshysters and renewables mountebanks in order to ‘Save the Planet!’.

It’s no coincidence that Labour pretends to have bought into this planet-saving bollocks. Because if you’re saving the planet, then it stands to reason we don’t need jobs; for example, Port Talbot steelworks can go. And the only roads we’ll need are those to bring our neighbours to and from their holiday homes. We Welsh won’t need roads because we won’t be able to afford cars. But don’t worry, because we’ve always got our rail system – a mere three days to travel from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth. (Don’t forget to change at Scunthorpe Low Level!)

Let’s cut the bullshit. ‘Wales saving the planet’, ‘Green jobs’ (that never materialise), are simply excuses for Wales being a basket-case economy.

Anyone arguing that the future economy of Wales lies in foreign-made and foreign-owned wind turbines and solar panels, providing not a single Welsh job, is either a fool or a liar.

Regrettably, the left in Wales is replete with both.

Perhaps to distract us from its internal problems, and the lack of an economic strategy not approved of by Saint Greta, Plaid Cymru promises a referendum on independence in the first term of a Plaid administration.

Cynics will point out that Plaid is not going to win the elections. Also, that there’ll be many in the Party of Wales happy to ‘lose’ such a referendum.

I’ll conclude this section with an observation I’ve made before, and I’m not the only one to have said it. There is a growing interest in independence; one recent poll put it as high as 39%, but Plaid Cymru’s support has remained static.

It’s as if a growing section of the Welsh public is considering independence . . . but they don’t want it delivered by Plaid Cymru. To think the unthinkable (for some, anyway) . . . Plaid Cymru may be the reason more people aren’t considering independence.

My interpretation is that while it’s well chronicled that socialist parties in the West have largely lost the (white) working class through pursuing policies designed to appeal to ethnic minorities and middle class left liberals, the problem for Plaid Cymru is that it had few working class votes to begin with.

Which leaves Plaid Cymru fighting a 20th century class war with 21st century ‘Woke’ warriors. This, and the elitist obsession with ‘the environment’ – rather than the issues people care about – will not pull in many new punters.

CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY

There’s no question that the Tories are riding high, but considering the opposition they face, maybe they should be doing even better.

For as we’ve seen, the opposition is composed of a Labour Party with 22 years of failure to its name, and a party even further to the left in thrall to identity politics extremists.

Add to that the popularity of BoJo and his jolly band up in London and the Conservatives should be heading for control in Corruption Bay. But that may not be the case.

One problem the Tories face is a combined opposition, one that works well because Plaid Cymru wins seats in areas where Labour is a lost cause. Whereas the Tory vote is more evenly spread across the land than the more ‘focused’ support enjoyed by their socialist opponents.

But this time around things might be different. I say that because of the BritNat parties. If I can remember them all . . . There’s the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, then there’s Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party), and, finally, Ukip.

I suggest that they could combine because, with the demotion of Suzy Davies and other broad hints – not least the promotion of Suzy’s anti-devolution son – the Conservative and Unionist Party has made clear that it’s worried by the rise of the BritNats, and will defend its lawn from their tanks.

Yet when all is said and done, they have so much in common.

Where it could get very interesting would be if the Conservatives emerged from next month’s elections as the largest party.

(It should go without saying that sometimes, my brain enlivened with the produce of Argentina, I dream of Labour and Plaid Cymru combined falling short of 30 seats!)

Andrew R T Davies, Leader, again, of the Conservative and Unionist Party in Wales. Another blue suit? Mmm . . .

As the largest party the Tories could just plough on and test the resolve of opponents with popular policies. I mean, if they promised to take a chainsaw to the third sector and invest the money saved where it could do more good, who would dare object?

Well, obviously, the Labour Party would object because it wants to keep Wales poor, blame the Tories, and keep getting elected. The third sector, constantly moaning about Welsh deprivation while doing little or nothing to remedy it, is essential to this scam. Plaid Cymru’s attitude to the third sector is little different to Labour’s.

But what of the others heretofore mentioned, the Queen and Country boys; what if they cobbled together enough seats to push the Tories towards the required 30?

It’s possible, because even though this election is difficult to call, due to the number of parties and candidates involved, we can be almost sure that the three largest parties will get fewer second preference votes and therefore fewer regional members.

I could live with a Conservative-BritNat parties coalition for a number of reasons.

In the short term, I would expect it to undo the socialist webs that Labour has spun to enmesh and enfeeble Wales over the past two decades. I would also expect such a coalition to put an end to Labour’s war against Welsh farmers.

In the longer term, the unrelenting Britishness might be the kick in the nuts some people need to accept that independence is the only option.

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

Well, what can I say without being cruel?

I will say this . . . I’d be pleased to see William Powell back in the Senedd. He’s a decent man and his heart’s in the right place, which is more than can be said for most of those who’ll be elected on May 6.

THE GREEN PARTY OF ENGLANDANDWALES

This is a party made up largely of Green white settlers, some of whom espouse colonialist views that might have embarrassed old Leopold II.

An attitude exemplified by their refusal a few years back to actually create a Wales Green Party, preferring to stay part of the England Green Party. In Scotland, the Green Party is Scottish, and has long supported independence.

The non-existent ‘Wales Green Party’ now claims to also believe in independence, not because they care about me or you, but because they see an independent Wales as somewhere they can wield influence that will in no way be hindered by their lack of electoral support.

Which, in a sense, takes us back to lobbying.

The shameless opportunism of the Greens is not a lot different to the entryism we’ve seen recently from far left loonies who have jumped on the indy bandwagon since Comrade Corbyn was given the bum’s rush.

The one consolation, of sorts, is that just about every other party now pays lip-service to the Greens’ message. Which is not good for Wales but, on the plus side, it makes the Green Party of Englandandwales largely redundant.

That can only be good.

THE BRITNAT PARTIES

As I said earlier, these are Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, Reform and Ukip. They are almost guaranteed to win some seats, and they will naturally align with the Conservative and Unionist Party.

These possibilities are discussed above and there’s not a lot to add.

Beowulf Headbanger celebrating VE day. Now that he’s recovered a little he’s allowed out to canvass for the Abolish the Welsh Party.

No doubt the BritNats will insist there are great ideological differences between them, but these are little more than degrees of anti-Welshness.

Of course, they’ll say they aren’t anti-Welsh, just anti-devolution. But as we know, let someone talk long enough about their opposition to devolution and before long hostility to the Welsh language and other indicators of a separate Welsh identity emerge. Such as the existence of Welsh national sporting teams.

And yet, they’re right. Devolution, and the corruption-infested swamp that is Cardiff Bay, should be done away with. But in favour of independence.

That’s why I believe the BritNats can be useful idiots in realising their worst nightmare.

NORTHERN LIGHT

In the next couple of years Scotland will either become independent or else the UK will slip into some kind of ‘soft’ (maybe not so soft) totalitarianism in order to thwart Scottish independence. At this moment I can’t see any other outcome.

Either of those eventualities will be a wake-up call for Wales. Either of them will tell us that it’s time to go, time to leave the United Kingdom.

When we’ve reached either outcome, anyone still arguing in favour of the UK will be acting out of self-interest or contempt for Wales. Among them we’ll find people like the Kinnocks, discredited Tories, holiday home owners, and others whose objections must be brushed aside.

This is why I tell everyone to watch what’s happening in Scotland. Because events in the Old North could have a bigger impact on Wales’ future than anything we do down here.

WALES’ BEST HOPES

As many readers will know, I had a hand in the formation of new, conservative-ish nationalist party, Gwlad. A party that was desperately needed to represent those who reject incompetent Labour, Rule Britannia Conservatives and BritNats, and Woke Plaid Cymru.

Gwlad is standing a good slate of candidates in next month’s elections. As WalesOnline said in an article last week: “Gwlad has put forward 14 constituency candidates and 21 candidates across the regional lists. Aside from Labour, Tories, Plaid, Lib Dems and Reform UK, they have the most candidates seeking election on May 6.”

Not bad for a party formed just a few years ago. Click here to download the full Manifesto.

Among the many excellent candidates is Rhydian Hughes, standing in his own patch of Clwyd West. Here’s a leaflet being distributed in the constituency.

Though I won’t be able to vote for Gwlad in my constituency of Dwyfor Meirionnydd, that’s because the party is not standing in seats held by Plaid Cymru. But I will be able to vote for our excellent list candidates in Mid and West Wales.

My constituency vote will probably go to the Propel candidate, Peter Read; but the Llais Gwynedd candidate, Glyn Daniels, is also in with a shout.

Having mentioned Propel it’s only right that I tell you a little more about this other new and genuinely Welsh party.

Most of you will have heard of Neil McEvoy. Despite what his opponents would like you to believe, Propel is not a one-man band; Neil is the leader, but he has a good team around him.

As a Member of the Senedd Neil McEvoy has made himself unpopular with Labour and Plaid Cymru through exposing the corruption and duplicity that characterises Cardiff Bay. (Anybody who can piss off both Labour and Plaid Cymru is OK with me.)

Also because, when standing for Plaid Cymru in 2016, he came within 1,176 votes of defeating Mark Drakeford in Cardiff West. Neil McEvoy is standing against Drakeford again, making this one of the more intriguing constituency contests.

(As an example of the way the media is misreporting these elections, Cardiff West is being portrayed by some as a straight fight between Labour and Plaid Cymru!)

Click to enlarge

The fact that Labour and Plaid Cymru attack Neil McEvoy with almost equal vehemence helps expose a long-standing relationship between two self-styled ‘progressive’ parties. The coalition that might emerge after May 6 would be just a continuation of this co-operation.

I’m not absolutely sure, but I’m fairly confident that Gwlad and Propel are not standing against each other in any constituency. I’m not aware of any electoral pact, I think it just panned out that way.

My advice therefore is to put Wales first by voting for Gwlad or Propel. Both parties are new, but fresh thinking is exactly what Wales needs at this critical juncture.

Because, and I repeat: the next few years are about choosing between independence and assimilation. Which do you want?

♦ end

 




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Dafis

About this time last week I commented that some of the antics of certain people and organisations “places me at risk as it makes me come over all Fascist, like !”

Well, having scanned some of the utter drivel being trotted out by so called “progressives” I can only say that if I am to be labelled Fascist for holding certain views and stances then so be it. However I must say that I am a strange kind of Fascist because I’m a damn sight more tolerant of open debate and diversity than those who purport to be the advance guard on such matters. Maybe we occupy different universes but for some odd reason there has been an “intersectionality event” which has brought us into each others’ spaces. My space is full of tolerance, there are things I dislike but I let them get on with it. Their space appears decidedly monocolour although that colour changes as the flavour of the month shifts. Is it too much to hope that it all goes away sometime soon ?

ANON

summit to sea is on its way or already here – just look at this map – identifies the opportunities for the colonisers and rich gentry [tax dodgers?]. see link from NRW.

was this ever in any party’s manifesto?

http://lle.gov.wales/apps/woodlandopportunities/#lat=52.8094&lon=-2.6147&zoom=7

Red Flag

The YouGov poll is more believable than the Opinium the week before.

Lab: 35/33%,
Plaid: 24/23%,
Con: 24/22%,
LDem: 3/4%,
RP: 4/2%,
AWAP: 3/7%,
Grn: 3/5%,
Oth: 4/4%
Senedd Seat Pred: Lab 26, Con 14, PC 17, LDem 1, AWAP 2

Averaged across the last 4 weeks would suggest a seat outcome to be around :-
Lab 26, Con 17, PC 14, LD 1, AWAP 1, Oth 1.

Dafis

Quote of the day – “My son just very excitedly said, “Adam Price has children, he is gay, he is in a mixed-race relationship, he really cares about people… He would be the best prime minister ever!” @Plaid_Cymru @plaidbme” So what ? Adam is very inclusive lifestyle and likes to tell us about it all the time. He is very fortunate that he has those choices, those options to adopt. Others don’t want them, choose not to have them, but are made to feel “outcasts” because they choose to live a different dare I say more traditional lifestyle. It is this “othering” by the militant wokeys that pisses me off

Dafis

I suspect not. However it’s even more ridiculous that an adult chooses to attribute such a shallow concoction to his/her child. More of the base “look at me, look at us” virtue signalling that passes for commitment among these lifestyle lefties who just can’t pass up an opportunity to splash their wokey drivel among their fellow bullshit junkies.

Brychan

Up until recently, Adam has been quite happy to live a family life of his choice, and is happy, and best of luck to him. However, of late there has been some ‘activists with an agenda’ which has, quite probably, upset this. It is not new. Back in the 1990s there was an agenda of ‘outing’ by activists which cause much distress, particularly from those who just wanted a quiet family life. Similarly, when I see election material which says “mother of three”, I have to ask the question of why are they telling me this? I vote for a party based on my political beliefs, independence, not on what domestic arrangements are of the candidate, nor what they do in the bedroom department.

It’s important to note that, although I disagree with Dr Dylis Davies, the point she raised was at what age a person has dominion over their bodies.

She does not have issue, in any way, adult transsexuals, but asks a question over prescription of puberty blockers in children. Are they old enough to make such choices? Traditionally parents have dominion over their children, and this can cause much distress if the orientation of a bad parent is at odds with the wishes of a young teenager. That’s the crux of the issue, and it is not enlightened by the abuse and bullying that has been expressed from some quarters on social media. Adam Price is full aware of the ishoos. The problem arises is when he has failed in his leadership of Plaid Cymru, and this lack of leadership is also apparent elsewhere, where certain cliques with a divergent agenda has subverted the main purpose for which that party was established.

Ioan Richard

I sent the e mail below on 2-4-21 to my local Gower Constituency Plaid Cymru Gower Candidate John Davies and copied it to other Plaid People I had e mail addresses for. It is copied below. It is a fair comment and a set of important questions for this constituency. Now three weeks on I have not even had an acknowledgment, let alone any answers. So, they will not get my vote . What do you “Jac” readers think? Despite the strategic issues for our local constituency I mention below, I note from Plaid’s Leaflets that still trespass through my letter box that their top priority is “Climate Change”. How can Wales avert Climate Change in the face of the Carbon Emissions of China & USA & India & Brazil & Industrialised Europe all (including Germany) are still burning amazing amounts of coal? Plaid would shut our Blast Furnaces down and Port Talbot Steelworks if they blindly follow the UK Climate Change Commission’s recommendations of a few weeks ago in January 2021 this year. I’ve not heard Plaid opposing this proposal of ending Blast Furnaces by the year 2034 to appease the “Greenies” , and please don’t bluster about Electric Arc Furnaces – as they recycle metals and will not reduce iron ore as in the blast furnaces to iron / steel.
***************************************** .
From Ioan Richard – 23, Mountain Rd., Craigcefnparc, Abertawe SA6 5RH. 2-4-21
OPEN LETTER TO PLAID CYMRU
I note that Plaid Cymru Gwyr’s candidate for the Senedd is a John Davies who I am told is really very capable. I was told that a while back, and that he was the “main person” behind a “Soup Run” for the homeless around Swansea – a very worthy cause, and that project involved using vegetables from an organisation called D2E (Down to Earth). Personally I am not very supportive of organisations like D2E as they tend towards the “One Planet good lifers” in my opinion. These “One Planet” set ups are slowly eroding the Welsh culture of rural Wales by drawing in good lifers from outside of Wales who take advantage of the living off grid policies of the Senedd – these TAN6 policies unique to Wales. I wrote many months ago to John Davies of my concerns about these One Planets and similar. I must have upset him, and Plaid Cymru Gower, as they will no longer communicate with me. That being so I will not be voting for anyone churlish who refuses to communicate on issues with me – capable or not.

One topic John Davies needs to do is ask Freedom of Information Questions (FoIQs) to the Chief Executive of the City and County of Swansea asking about an extremely strategic matter concerning the economy of the local region – as follows :-

FoIQ 1 – When was the last time the former Felindre Tinplate Works site was on the Agenda of any Council or Committee meeting at Swansea Council?

FoIQ 2 – For what future purposes is the former Felindre Tinplate Works site being marketed for?

FoIQ 3 – Are any current solid discussions taking place at present for the development of the former Felindre Tinplate Works site with any developer? ( Not asking for details due to business sensitivities – just – are there any serious current discussions?)

F0IQ 4 – Has the LDP made any changes in Planning Policies, from the Structure Plan Policies, for the former Felindre Tinplate Works site’s future aspired use? If so, what are the changes for proposed future aspired usage?

These issues above are far more important than apparently supporting One Planet developments for incoming good lifers.

Neil Singleton

Somewhere north of £30 million has been expended on the “Felindre Strategic Business Park.” Since it was acquired by Lliw Valley Council in 1996, and transferred into the ownership of the City & County of Swansea Council later that year. Arising from the ill fated LG project at Newport, and also to protect the marketability of sites on the Swansea Enterprise Zone, Swansea Council (on the recommendation of it’s planners) decreed that only one large developement should be located on the site. Artist’s impressions illustrated the development of a 1 million+ sq ft building for one occupying company. This was in direct opposition to the Welsh Development Agency’s view that the site should be split into individual plots of 10-20 acres, to cater for the then known demand. Swansea Council has contributed minimal funding to infra structuring the site (most of the funding coming from the WDA, Welsh Assembly and the EU). From the outset, the Council’s role was to “market” the site, and it was insisted that the “Business Park” should only accept “emerging undertakings, hi-tech companies, leading edge industries” etc., definitely no warehouses (sheds) etc. So where are we now. After TWENTYFIVE YEARS of little discernible effort and activity, ONE company has built on the site. That company occupies a large distribution warehouse which relocated it’s business from nearby, creating very few NEW jobs. If driving past the site, you would be hard put to see this large shed, as so embarrassed are the Council at renaging on it’s long held objectives to secure quality, high-tech, leading edge companies, it insisted that the development be tucked away almost out of public gaze. The only other activity on the site is a temporary car park, originally to enable a Park & Ride facility for DVLA, but now available for all comers. Swansea Council should hang it’s head in shame at the debacle of a major site, with direct access from the M4 (also upgraded for the site in 2000 at the cost of several million). People like Mr Richards are perfectly entitled to enquire as to WTF the Council have been doing to generate employment on this Strategic Site, for the last TWENTYFIVE YEARS!

Dafis

Things are on the move in Jac’s backyard !.

Will the Planners decision to deny permission to build holiday homes at a disused quarry near Aberdyfi prevail, or will the usual backdoor tactics be deployed successfully ?

Brighter Foods gets sold to some big foods group. Will it be allowed to retain its Tywyn presence under new ownership or will the usual corporate instinct to centralise rear its ugly head especially when it comes to good businesses located away from motorway networks ? Shades of Halo Foods, or anyone of many others lost due corporate manipulation. Such is the fate of colonial businesses.

A ap G
Dafis

That’s a hell of a shock. I wasn’t aware that there were any heteros left within Plaid. They will probably deny that he’s a member and trot out that ambiguous twat from Bangor as evidence of their “norm”.

Dafis

Made my way to the capital this morning for a brief visit. Very pleased to see a number of McEvoy posters along Cowbridge Road West. If the grass roots out in places like Ely decide to turn out then Mr Drakeford could be in for a hell of a shock and the Plaid vote will end up back where it was years ago with only the Crachach plus the pseuds and BLT’s from likes of BBC/S4C in support. Some of those shits might have to get out and find proper jobs for the first time in their crummy lives.

Stan

I’ve not got a dog in this fight but see that Mike Parker has just announced he’s not voting Plaid Cymru even though he’s a former candidate, and still a member of Plaid. He’s voting Green. The main reason is given as Helen Mary Jones still being a Plaid candidate and he’s pretty pissed with her transphobic history. He’s also concerned about saving the planet from extinction by fire.

The Greens are never slow to miss an opportunity and there have been suggestions put to him he might consider running for the Greens in future. He’s not ruled it out.

Can HMJ survive this constant barrage of accusation and criticism by the Carnival of Grotesques in Plaid 😉? Doesn’t Parker’s behaviour fall foul of Plaid’s conditions of membership? The Grotesques who have recently resigned from Plaid due to them not sacking HMJ are rubbing their hands in glee tonight.

Dafis

“Plaid Cymru will degenerate….” says Jac. I say it’s already about as degenerate as it could get unless it opts out completely from political dialogue and focusses on the activist/ demo frequenting segment for whom anything that doesn’t chime properly with its own noisy rants is deemed fascist, mysoginist, waycist, blah blah etc. Neither left nor right, just plain infantile.

Dafis

Perhaps I have an underlying, unconscious phobia about the word “transphobe” hence the omission !

Dafis

Reading stories like this :

https://nation.cymru/news/staff-employed-by-homeless-charity-reveal-shocking-working-conditions/

places me at risk as it makes me come over all Fascist, like !

Somebody needs to get a grip of these charities soaking up cash like blotters yet have no standards of service worth talking about. Maybe a lot of crap written in policy books but at the sharp end – nothing much at all. Yet the CEO or whatever that jumped up creep is called gets paid well over the odds. They are all cnuts.

Brychan

The ishoo with “trans” is that politicians and governments should not have dominion over other peoples bodies, or discriminate access to places or services based on gender.It should be noted that HMJ, like Mari Arthur does not live in the Llanelli constituency, nor in the Mid and West Wales region, both having moved to the suburbs of Cardiff.

This is not the only problem with HMJ. Like most former Plaid Cymru voters in the Llanelli constituency, I will not be voting for HMJ. I noticed yesterday, the distinct lack of vote HMJ posters at properties throughout the Gwendraeth valleys, households I know to be previously Plaid supporting. Like the recent Westminster elections it is likely that the Tories will beat Plaid in Llanelli, with the increasing possibility that Sian Caiach, a strong Gwlad candidate will also beat Plaid Cymru into fourth place.

This will also have a significant effect on the second votes, that of the regional top-up.

Stan

How do you know there’s an election shortly in Neath?

Your Plaid councillors actually appear in your street and stick a newsletter through the letterbox.

Jeremy Miles tweets every day with testimonials from people who think he’s the best thing since sliced bread. Those giving him a good reference currently include Christina Rees MP (allegedly), Lord Peter Hain, Lord Hain’s previous agent, and a guy from Resolven who stood unsuccessfully for the council – for the Labour Party. Miles also claims credit for everything ever spent in the council’s patch, schools, town centre improvements (I use the term loosely), inward investment (?), blah, blah, fucking blah!

The police get tough on anti-social behaviour and crime in Neath. That’s a definite signal. Happens every election. Usually cue for a photo opportunity with Labour luminaries and the force commander.

I think I’m going to spoil my ballot paper – again.

Red Flag

Final nugget from Welsh Opinium poll: Best UK PM:-

Boris: 31%
Starmer: 24%
None of these: 29%
DK: 16%

With 78% of Con backing Boris but only 54% of Lab backing Starmer.

Red Flag

I would be very wary about this Opinium poll in Wales. It’s the first one they have done there on record (going back as far as 2016) and is wildly out of kilter Labour-Plaid wise compared to regular Wales pollster which is just YouGov. Since 2016 the only other pollsters to have done Wales are ICM (x4), Sky Data (x1) and Survation (x1). YouGov over the same 5 year period have conducted 21 polls. Thing with polls is they have to be fine-tuned and that takes a track record.

Red Flag

yea that’s the regular YouGov one for ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni

Dafis

You should be wary of all opinion polls. The only one that’s worth looking at is the one on Polling Day where all the X’s get added up. God help us if certain people start messing about with that process. The last POTUS election arouses suspicion and it’s often the case that shit that gets initiated in USA often gets replicated here.

Penddu

Gwlad and Propel are head to head in 3 constituencies. Cardiff South, Cardiff Central and Vale of Glamorgan. But otherwise have managed to avoid each other.

Dafis

Neither party will have much immediate impact in those constituencies. Gwlad have given McEvoy a clear run ( and I hope support) in Cardiff West when he goes gunning for the FM and plastic Plaid. Gwlad are contesting Penybont and both parties are presenting 4 each for the SWW Region. You got to laff, well I do anyway – Tories have 7 on the regional list, Plaid have put 10 names forward. Obviously that’s the result of being inclusive !

Red Flag

Latest Opinion Poll, just released.

Opinium. 09-19 April

Westminster Voting Intentions
Lab: 42%
Con: 33%
PC: 14%
LDem: 3%
Grn: 3%
Oth: 5%

—————————–

Senedd (Const/List)
Lab: 40/38%
Con: 30/27%
PC: 19/19%
LDem: 4/4%
Grn: -/5%
Oth: -/7%

(seat proj: Lab 29, Con 19, PC 10, LDem 1, Oth 1)
——————————

WindyRef
Yes: 34% No: 66% (Yes: 28%, No: 52%, Oth 20%: )

Red Flag

Just to remove doubt, the Westminster VI is Wales only

Red Flag

Very very illuminating article on Page 15 of the Sunday Times about the failings of child care in Wales. There are towns in Wales – such as Torfaen, where 1 in 44 children are in local authority care, one of the worst rates in Europe.

Can’t reproduce it because Sunday Times is firewalled, but if you can get hold of a copy it’s well worth the read

Red Flag

Best FM
Drakeford: 29%
RT Davies: 10%
Price: 8%
(but 32% DK and 14% ‘none of these’)

Stan

That score flatters Adam Price, who is yet to lead his own Party. He’s just a figurehead with out-of-control eyebrows and a decidedly dodgy stare that makes me wonder if there’s anything behind it (or even causing it). The real power in the Party still rests with the previous encumbent if you ask me.

This whole blog post by Jac was hugely entertaining and really insightful. Thank you. I’ll miss you when you hang up your quill. And I’ll never forget that description in this blog of the loony Woke fringe within Plaid Cymru – “carnival of grotesques” 😂I hope you’ve got that copyrighted. I’d buy a T-shirt with that on!

Dafis

There’s been a number of truly outstanding descriptive phrases from Jac over the years. I started dropping in about 5 or 6 years ago and the gems have been frequent features. Makes reading about these smug self-obsessed creatures just about tolerable as it informs me that my view of so many of these wankers is not unique. Good kindred spirits on here with a hub that offers insight and a dash of humour.

Ioan Richard

Apologies for bringing Mynydd y Gwair Wind Turbines up yet again, but I have to say after all ups and downs at the end of the day it was LESLEY GRIFFITHS who made the decision to finally approve this immense scenic destruction for very little Energy Power and no local ‘green jobs’. I just cannot fathom how such a person can be allocated the job to care for the Environment of Wales. It beggars belief. I wonder who was her ‘adviser’ at the time. Any suggestions?

Bedd Nedd

Who are the two women opposite the adorable adoring couple? I’m referring to the one with a red jumper and the one with a red scarf. Are they another cosy Labour couple? I notice three are enjoying a Guinness but the Minister seems to have a glass of white wine. Probably a habit from having so many Wine freebies in the Bay’s Senedd Restaurant. You know the one, its where the poor lone waitress was forced to breach Covid Rules by pathetic Bully Boys and now faces action whilst the Bully Boys get no disciplinary action. What says you readers?

Wrexhamian

Judging by the smile on their faces, looks like Gary the Goat’s banged all three.

I can’t work Leslie Griffiths out. Who in Wales did she think would benefit from her sanctioning of this eyesore of questionable productive value?

Brychan

The level of corruption has reached such a level that scientific studies commissioned by the Welsh Government, particularly in areas of agriculture, is being subverted because they do not provide the answers desired. I bet Lee Waters is more worried about Lesley Griffiths loosing her seat than he does about the security of his own. The fall out, I suspect, will be significant.

Brychan

If you remember, following my contact with Lee Waters, my MS, over issues with NRW, he launched a broadside against Lesley Griffiths in the plenary in the Senedd. It related to corrupt land deals, timber contracts and public access. LG then scapegoated the CEO, and sacked her most senior civil servant.

Neil Singleton.

Was not Griffiths in charge of the relevant portfolio which “oversaw” the disgraceful RIFW scandal, that cost taxpayers £100+million? The reward for failure in Corruption Bay is to be moved into another Ministerial post, and leave all your cock-ups behind.

Ioan Richard

In my haste to enter my item about “Green Jobs” I could have said a lot more. I will just add two points. As for Mynydd y Gwair – it is owned by the “Somerset Trust” or “Family Trust” of the feudal Lord of Gower’ who is no other than the Duke of Beaufort one of England’s wealthiest non Royal Dukes. that Trust is not a Charitable Trust was set up after WW2 maximise benefit for vast lands it owns in South Wales from Marcher Lord Status and a whopping big chunk of the Cotswolds. By ancient Charter the Welsh speaking hill farming grazier commoners only own the grass sward. Then next door is Mynydd Betws where the Turbines there are owned by an Irish Company. So come on Politicians what the hell are you talking about when you say “green jobs”? Your leaflets and false promises are just rubbish! As for Wales leading the world over ‘Climate Change’ , how can Wales avert the carbon emissions of the USA : China; Brazil; India and the industrialised countries of Europe especially Germany that burns low quality lignite coal in its ‘modern’ power stations. You are all Trumpier than Donald Trump. EXPLAIN !

Red Flag

Polling average for March is (Const/List):-

Lab: 32/31%
Con: 30/28%
Plaid: 23/22%
LDem: 5/4%
RP: 3/0%
Grn: 2/3%
AWAP: -/7%
Oth: 5/4%

This loosely translates into seats as Lab:22, Con:19, PC:14, AWAP::4 LDem:1

Comment. This is significant as this is Labour’s worst performance in Wales since devolution. They easily lose their majority and Plaid Cymru are making it fairly clear they will not go into coalition with nor provide a Conf & Supp arrangement unless Labour Wales backs certain Plaid policies. No oither arrangemebnt can give Labour a majority other than working with the Tories (which suits Plaid as they can weaponise that – “vote Labour, get Tory” etc etc.

Such a result will almost certainly lead to Drakeford having to resign as First Minister.

Red Flag

The main thing going against a Labour-Plaid Coalition / C&S is that the demands Plaid are already starting to make, which Labour Wales cannot agree to (in some instances, they don’t even have the power to within the GB Labour Party as it’s controlled at NEC level and higher) as it goes against Labour GB by quite some margin and undermines that scourge of shoplifters and anti-Royalist Knight of The Realm sir Keir Mackerel. (nice and shiney in the moonlight but soon starts to stink in the full glare of sun) – it basically makes Labour Wales ‘rogue’ and no longer following GB national policy. One of Plaid’s fledgling ‘demands’ is Drakeford not stand as First Minister – Labour London will not allow Labour Wales to allow in turn Plaid to decide who can and cannot be Labour’s figurehead in Wales – they cannot be seen to be backing down to more nationalists on top of the SNP.

Labour in England is in serious trouble in the locals and it is looking more and more certain they will lose the by-Election in the formerly safe Labour seat of Hartlepool to the tories as well as a swathe of councils across the north and midlands, along with a couple of PCCs and Mayoralships. Labour London will not want to be seen to backing down to Plaid on the back of what will be a disastrous locals for them in England and an on-going disaster in Scotland.

We are due another Welsh poll in the next few days – and if it confirms last months average, then Labour Wales, are goosed and will be left with two options – back down and take the knee to Plaid’s demands contrary to the instruction of Labour GB, or work with fellow unionists the Tories in a German style ‘Grand Coalition’ fobbed off as for the good of Wales. Personally, I think at strategic level, Plaid will be very satisfiedwith a Labour-Tory Coalition precisely because they can weaponise it for the next General Election, which planning will start for at the end of this year because the Fixed Term Parliament Act will be scrapped by then, meaning at any given moment in time the PM can unilaterallycall a General Election with as little as six weeks notice (just like pre 2010)

These elections – not just in Wales but in Scotland and also what happens in England north of the Watford gap, are going to be the death knell of Labour across GB as things stand at the moment (probably why they are making such a noise about lobbying – tnot really arsed about it but it resonates well with the voters) and Starmer will almost certainly face a serious leadership challenge on current result forecasts.

Red Flag

My source about Plaid and it’s fledgling demands is a Plaid candidate who I have actively campaigned for several times in the past. They are apparently already having ‘very informal’ fireside chats with Labour Wales over coffee and biccies behind the scenes and apparently Labour Wales are digging their heels in suggesting Plaid would be a junior partner just there to provide it’s votes, not dictate policy.

Dafis

… which is about all Plaid is good for anyway ! Plaid expresses itself now in fantasy wish lists that resonate well within an echo chamber of like minded wokey types. Add to that the multiple contradictions and fudge and it all adds to something out of a juvenile’s playbook. Go out to the country and tell them what Plaid’s proposals are and the typical reaction from those likely to show any interest at all is – “That sounds nice, but who the hell is going to pay for it ?”

Red Flag

For any that missed last nights debate between the big three (it was anything but an actual debate), I provide a link to the stream here

https://www.itv.com/walesprogrammes/articles/wales-decides-the-itv-wales-debate

I made it a draw between Plaid and Tory – who were strikingly similar in some policy areas. Labour fared very badly IMHO.

Simon

I have to disagree with the central tenet of this article that this is an election like any other election with the main parties fighting it out over their (much similar) policies – and lockdowns and social restrictions based on covid-panic is not a central issue.

If mainstream politics emerges from this election still in control, we are looking at endless on-and-off-again restrictions with each new “variant” resulting in the complete destruction of Welsh-owned and controlled businesses, not to mention social and cultural life. There won’t be enough of a Welsh Wales left come next election in 2025 to even entertain independence as a viable option.

The ongoing covid-panic destruction of Wales, compliments of Cardiff Bay, is the most important issue in this election whether people want to admit it or not.

Dr John Ball

Well said Ioan!

Just a quick addition. Transport and construction of the turbines above Pontarddulais followed the exact pattern explained by Ioan
In this case however, the local roads could not accommodate the very long low loaders that transported the turbines from the docks to the site.
So… the local authority had to remove road islands and re-configure some of the roads, in addition the very slow moving vehicles held up local traffic for hours whist of course spewing diesel fumes into the air.
When finally delivered the road changes were reversed – all at the cost to Swansea’s council tax payers.

Ioan Richard

GREEN JOBS :- There is a lot of hype generally by Politicians about creating “Green Jobs”. This hype is currently intensifying in Wales due to the Senedd (Wales Assembly) imminent election. What does it all mean? All I can say is, that surrounding the village where I live, we have seen many ugly ineffective developments that are supposed to be ‘green’. Nearly all the construction jobs went to outsiders and mostly to foreign based companies. Let’s consider the destruction of Mynydd y Gwair here for Wind Turbines in north Swansea. All the Turbine Parts were imported by sea from Germany and transported to the site from the Docks by specialist heavy long haulage lorries from England. The site was prepared by the now defunct Welsh company Dawnus that employed mostly Irish men on the site. The wiring was done by a French company. Wind Turbines are only 25% effective of quoted capacities.
Then there are numerous Solar Panels covering many farm fields here that once had prime livestock for milk and beef and lamb with some arable. All these solar panels were imported from overseas mostly from China and Spain and contractors were outsiders notably from Spain. Once constructed, nobody works on these sites, other than occasional maintenance men from away turn up in a white van. Solar Panels are only a mere 10% effective of quoted capacities.
One small part of the problem is that Planning Applications that have ticked the correct Boxes on the Forms are now supported by Green Policies whatever real destruction they do on the ground for ineffective schemes. If the Boxes worded “Sustainability” ; “Renewable”; Green Jobs”; “Off Grid” ; One Planet”, and the like, are all ticked then Approval is guaranteed. This begs the question – “Where are the green jobs?”. All the Politicians are all keen to be seen as green and these greenies must think we are ‘green’. I note that ‘Green Jobs’ are the priority on several election leaflets I have had recently. These same idiots want to close wales’ Blast Furnaces that provide real jobs a lunacy policy. If they close our steel works then that capacity will just transfer to blast furnaces in India and China and the like.It’s a scary world despite getting rid of Trump. Our Senedd / Assembly would be members are all mini idiot Trumpites!

Dafis

It’s amazing that so few people seem to appreciate the duplicity of these green apostles. Recently some dame representing a Green advocating group was spouting about how our forests needed protection and further development. All very admirable laudable stuff. Yet the same stupid bitch was notably missing and very silent when another bunch of green opportunists ripped up several square miles, hundreds of thousands of assorted woodlands to make way for the turbine “plantations” plastered all over the Welsh countryside. Moorland, bogs and other long established natural features all scraped away to make room for man’s new follies.

Dafis

I won’t listen to her again. I have heard or read enough in the recent past from a range of hand wringing “well meaning” poseurs. I have reached maximum tolerance level and any more of this bullshit could trigger a nasty eruption of violence. Talking of eruptions, when I watched that volcano blow off in the Caribbean last week it occurred to me that Greta is never around when you really need her. There again she probably doesn’t include the emissions from that type of source in her abstract calculations. Daft kid needs educating.

Brychan

To answer the ‘truancy’ question. In Sweden, a school pupil can take one year out from aged 15 and drop back a year of attendance. At age 15, Greta Thunberg took this option and started her Skolstrejk för klimatet, the stunt outside parliament. This was August 2018. This was her sabbatical year. She has now had to resume her studies, and upon graduation, is required to complete a 12mth period of National Service, which is compulsory and gender neutral. There is an alternative called Vapenfri Tjänst, a non-combat coconscious objection, which usually involves street cleaning for the municipality. That will start in August, and she is expected to excel in washing pavements or assisting at recycling centres. It is compulsory, even if your parents are media tycoons or opera singers.

Brychan

It’s a good system. Whether it’s a broomstick at Carbon Black (yourself), or a coalface prop at CwmCoedEly (myself). It’s important that anyone who aspires to a career elsewhere, or even to political office, that they have grounding of the real world. There are too may politicians who’s life experience is school, uni, office admin for an MP/MS, and then expect to be elected to rule our country.

Simon

This attack on farming and nations’ abilities to feed themselves is co-ordinated worldwide as well documented by the “ice age farmer”. We are being herded down a path of complete dependence on external bodies to supply our most basic needs such as food – preparing us for lab-grown meat and other soylent green concoctions. We must not let this pass. If we do allow this to progress, having an “independent government” would be but a cruel joke.

Neil Singleton

I have no time for Trump, but isn’t it Biden (controlled by the “Squad”) who is proposing the closure of all steel plants, coal mines, fracking operations etc. in the US? The Democrat’s Green New Deal also proposes the eradication of air passenger transport and fossil fuel operated vehicles. Trump’s position was that he opposed all these proposals.

Brychan

I am quite prepared to support the transition of steel making from fossil fuels to other forms of metallurgy, however, I have not yet found a method of making steel by strapping chunks of iron ore to wind turbines. When western governments argue for closure of steel plants, they are just arguing for the export of emissions to Russia and China, and then importing the resulting manufactured goods. This does not address any perceived contribution to global climate change. It just allows certain affluent people of feel better about themselves, in Wales, lifestyle settlers, in scant regard for the natives, be it farmers or steelworkers.

Dafis

Watched opening rounds of Adrian Master’s quizzing of the 3 moronic party leaders last night then elected to surf the channels to protect my sanity. What a bunch of seriously defective cnuts. Good job we have access to likes of Propel and Gwlad to support. That’s how democracy can be made to work for us. Shame those media crooks choose to shut them out.

Dafis

I got about 15 minutes of hurling abuse at the telly, which irritates the hell out of my very patient wife and does nothing to impress the 3 clowns ! Although Masters did manage to inject the odd flash of wit into the otherwise repugnant repulsive event. But after those opening rounds I gave up, chucked in the towel.