Caerffili By-election: Random Thoughts

This piece is totally unplanned; but I want to get it out because I see so many misinterpreting the result and failing – or refusing to understand – what lies behind it.

PLAID CYMRU AND LABOUR, LABOUR AND PLAID CYMRU

Let me begin by congratulating Plaid Cymru on a great victory. As I’ve mentioned more than once, I was a member of the party for many years and, back in the 1970s, a candidate for both Swansea council and the old West Glamorgan county council.

But it was a different party back then. Though the victor in Caerffili, Lindsay Whittle, seems in some ways closer to the party I belonged to than the modern party. We shall see.

The Plaid campaign was strange in that it seemed to be more about stopping Reform than offering any policies of its own. And so it was reduced to a two-horse race; portraying Reform as the agents of Putin, Trump, and English nationalism (get your head around that!), with Plaid as the standard bearer for Wales, decency, and ‘progress’.

Which was bollocks. The election was really about voters’ rejection of Labour. Everything else flowed from that.

The people of Caerffili were justifiably pissed off with Labour for two reasons.

First, 26 years of abject failure by the Labour party managing Wales from Corruption Bay. From which Plaid and Reform profited.

But let’s remember that Plaid was in coalition with Labour between 2007 and 2011, and the two are currently in some ill-defined ‘agreement’. Furthermore, and just like Labour, Plaid supports the Globalist-Woke agenda on climate, gender, race, etc., and would go further.

Second, there was Keir Starmer factor: cancelling winter fuel allowance, rocketing electricity bills thanks to ‘clean green energy’, rising taxes, rent boys, immigration, Chinese Communist Party influence, rape gangs, Digital ID. A tower of betrayals and lies that will soon topple and destroy Starmer.

So Plaid profited because they were seen by many as being a change from Labour. An improvement. And marginally preferable to Reform. With a strong local candidate, in Lindsay Whittle.

But in addition to the shared outlook I just listed, and since Plaid abandoned independence the difference between Labour and the Party of Wales is, well . . . anybody got a fag paper? Don’t bother – there’d be nowhere to fit it.

Here’s what they both really want: More political power for the Senedd and more funding from London; then they can make California Democrats look like Confederate flag-waving rednecks buck dancing by their likker stills.

And as someone has pointed out to me, the constituency itself needs to be understood.

His take is that the northern part of the constituency probably went to Reform.

But the southern part, which touches Cardiff’s northern suburbs, is home to many ‘progressives’ who realised Labour is cooked and switched to Plaid.

ATTITUDES, REACTIONS, RESPONSES

One of the more puzzling outlooks came from those claiming to want independence but attacking Reform, and using choice language, for being “English nationalists“. Which exposed, yet again, that the modern nationalist movement is home to some very strange, and stupid, people.

I love to see the England flag. I want the English people to reclaim England. I want three independent countries on this island respectful of each other. The threat is not England or the English, the threat is a form of Unionism that has little respect for us and is subservient to supranational bodies and the Globalist agenda.

Yet most of those who attack Reform as English nationalists want independence in order to rejoin a bankrupt and increasingly authoritarian EU pushing for war with Russia to distract from its internal collapse. This is insane.

Reform may be Unionist – but looking at the bigger threat, to which independence under those now promoting it would sacrifice us – Reform appears to want the same things I want.

There was a post-election piece by Martin Shipton in Nation.Cymru today. Here’s one of the comments. Who’d have thought the president of Russia could be worked into a small comment on a Welsh by-election.

Though I’m at a loss as to why proximity to Cardiff should matter. Unless it links with my earlier reference to the nature of the Caerffili constituency, and the dread thought of hairy-arsed ‘flag-shaggers’ encroaching on those leafy northern suburbs.

Knowing the political sentiments of some of those commenting to this piece (even the writer), I was struck by how easy it’s been for them – and others I’ve read today – to switch from Labour to Plaid.

For them, it’s clearly the agenda that matters, not which party pushes it.

Yet we might still see Labour go for broke, and try to out-Woke Plaid before next May’s Senedd elections. That’s what Paul Embery might have suggested today in this tweet.

Did a Labour Senedd member really say that on the Home Service?

If so, how will Labour go about it? Just imagine . . . “We have set up a taskforce, with a budget of £20m, to tackle the problem of transphobia in Llanfair Caereinion“.

LOSERS, WINNERS, CONCLUSION

The party I support, Gwlad made little impression; hardly surprising if you lack rich backers and the media ignores you.

But then, I remember it took Plaid Cymru 40 years before Gwynfor Evans won the Carmarthen by-election in 1966. So maybe it’s time to put Plaid’s victory in perspective.

First, Caerffili was a by-election; strange things can happen at by-elections. I recall the Orpington by-election of 1962. But it didn’t lead to a Liberal revival.

And Plaid has been here before, winning seats in the Valleys. In the first Assembly elections (of 1999) Plaid took Islwyn, and Rhondda, also Llanelli. Plus of course the usual seats further west and north.

More recently, Leanne Wood won, then lost, Rhondda.

I can even remember Plaid briefly taking control of Merthyr council.

So Plaid winning a seat in this area is not unprecedented, but they tend to be flashes in the pan. Will Caerffili prove to be any different?

The big difference now of course is that Labour is in real trouble. Is it terminal? Is Labour’s century of dominance in Wales over, just as the 1920s marked the end of Liberal hegemony?

It’s too early to say, because as I said earlier, Labour paid the price in Caerffili for both its own record in Wales, and the unpopularity of a Labour administration in London. A change of government in London would almost certainly help Labour here, but only so much.

Because I think Labour in Wales was on the skids before Starmer got elected. In the Senedd elections of 2021 Labour got 46% of the vote in Caerphilly. In last year’s UK general election, it was down to 38%.

And we may never see a majority Labour government in London again. Many younger voters, and middle class voters, will desert to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

And where are the Conservatives? Remember them!

Looking ahead to the Senedd elections next May, and unless something dramatic happens between now and then, we’ll see Reform with most seats, but Wales run by a Plaid-Labour coalition.

Which means that the big winner last night in Caerffili was, and the big winner next May will be, the Globalist agenda.

The punters looked from Labour to Plaid, and from Plaid to Labour, and from Labour to Plaid again; but it was already impossible to say which was which.

Apologies to George Orwell, Animal Farm.

♦ end ♦

© Royston Jones 2025

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David Smith

Need I point out there there is a difference between English nationalism of a flavour whereby a love for their own nation and respect for their neighbours is the watchword, and the Greater Anglia, “For Wales, See England” kind? Reform being about the latter is not an illegitimate concern for my money.

Ioan Richard

As somone who worked for a number of years at the former Steel Company of Wales, and later British Steel, in their cold steel strip mills, I sympathise with the worries of the workers today on facing a long Christmas shut down. I presume they will continue to be paid, but minus shift allowances and less tonnage bonuses, which in my days accounted for a sizeable part of the weekly pay packet. 
In those days the tinplate strip mills, with their electroplating lines, were susceptible to the odd lay offs due to occassional slumps in orders from canning factories reliant on seasonal tinned foods e.g. Argentinian Beef grazing patterns on the pampas or drought affected South African Fruits, but they were only for rare short periods of time. 
Those lay offs, now called production pauses, would cascade back into the whole steel production scene from furnace to finished plate. Let’s hope it’s now only a one off temporary pause.
This brings me to an interesting query. Knowing that the five electrical drive motors alone of just one single cold reduction mill consumed about 25,000 bhp, there’s going to be a huge surplus of electricity in the South Wales Grid over the period of these extended Christmas heavy end industrial closures. Will this obvious big slump in electricity usage affect the seasonal market price of electric to our home energy bills? In all other markets, supply and demand, control prices. 
Having quoted the statistic above of 25,000 bhp for the drive motors alone of one single heavy consuming steel mill, I’d like to ask a second query in that when things hopefully return to full production. How will erratic Wind Turbine Power drive these immense machines without futher load shedding on calm weather days causing havoc to large scale Grid demand? You cannot run a high tension heavy work roll load steel mill on erratic power supply reliant on inadequate battery storage power without mill wreck stoppages galore.

Jonathan Dean

As you know, as I have told you numerous times, there is no intention to run the GB grid with only wind or solar power – just take a glance at the Clean Power Action Plan

However, for both wind and solar, although variable (not erratic), the output can be forecast with surprisingly good accuracy, and cause no issues for the grid operator

Ioan Richard

Why ‘split hairs’ Jonathan? Is it just to be awkwardly clever?
Was your Doctorate in a speciality of being consistently irregular?
Oxford Dictionary – Meaning – Definitions for Wind Conditions
Erratic – not even or regular in pattern or movement; unpredictable.
Variable – not consistent or having a fixed pattern; liable to change.
Of course there are ‘issues’ with the Grid – as we all know – except you.
Why is it all being reconfigured at a cost of £ billions?

Jonathan Dean

Profuse apologies but I have never been particularly good with the English language

To me they are quite different where erratic would imply a far more frequent variation that was difficult to predict. As you have said, unpredictable

To me variable means it is capable of having different values and easier to predict. As you say, liable to change

Renewables are very easy to predict thanks to weather forecasts, and the weather is liable to change

There are issues with grid capacity (we need more), but not with the stable operation of existing capacity

My doctorate was in three phase fluid dynamics which can have both highly erratic behaviours and beautifully variable behaviours, simultaneously

Ioan Richard

Slightly off subject :- How many ‘Jac Readers’ feel they are now blacklisted and censored from adding any comments to articles on the publicly funded Welsh News web site ‘NATION.CYMRU’. I know I am one, because I’ve submiited several comments that have been received by NATION.CYMRU but then never appear on its web site. This is state sponsored censorship ! Please tell us here on this open democratic site that Jac provides.
Another thought – why not nominate ‘Jac’ to our local five Senedd Members for a Wales Government St. David’s Day Award for democratic service to to Wales.
I think now is the time to make such nominations to our own five local Senedd Members ready for March 1st 2026 honours. It will really irritate the fawning twats!

malc

All Plaid victories whether in Y Senedd or Westminster, send a message to the UK Government. The clearest si gular message over the decades has been- The Welsh are a little upset, but no real reason to change anything. The message from Caerphilly is stark. Labour are ‘done for’ in the next Senedd Elections. Could it be that Wales may now benefit from some Srarmer ‘bribes’ as he tries to rebuild the perception of Labour in Wales before they go to the polls in 2026? Either way, we still find Wales scrambling for crumbs falling from the Treasury table. To finish on a positive note, yesterday, people who have never voted for Plaid voted for them. That is a major step forward.

Martin Evans

I am attached the the area where I grew up, through familiarity and family ties. I’m not obsessed with DNA, simply saying that I cannot claim to anything more than British. Scotland formed as you say, by bringing together various elements and that process developed to form the Union. Nothing unique or wrong with that; better than fighting each other. As to language, the majority hereabouts speak only English, so why do the Welsh junta try to force their will on people? I suppose this answers the other points; one lot of people force their wills on others, who eventually lose patience and fight back. History can be summed up as a series of power struggles.

I am reminded of the words of the late Llew Smith, old school Labour MP for Blaenau Gwent. That may be a dirty word these days but you cannot always say that all policies of a party or MP are wrong or that they are all right. On this point, I agree with Mr Smith “In my opinion, the Government must now consider decreasing the powers of the National Assembly for Wales and devolving them to local authorities. Unlike the creation of the National Assembly for Wales, that would be an act of real devolution, not nationalism. It is also necessary for central Government to devolve a number of their powers to local authorities”.

Martin Evans

What do you mean by anti Welsh?

I have said that I have no wish to move, which is hardly evidence of hating Wales. My patch has covered much of south east Wales and Monmouthshire/Gwent, pre and post 1974 (When Monmouthshire became Gwent, it made no practical difference), plus the border shires of England. Lines on maps mean nothing to me; is a typical person, from Skenfrith, any different from one who lives in Broad Oak? 

Since the Assembly was set up, a process has continued, where drip by drip, powers of and interference by the Assembly have increased. The self styled Welsh Government seek only to promote themselves and their version of Welsh Nationalism, with a measure of virtue seeking wokery thrown in, to try to show everyone what lovely, caring people they are. Their stated aim, to make Wales “Racism free” by 2030, is a good example, overlooking their own discriminatory policies, which seek to make me a second class citizen, in the area where I was born and have lived for over sixty years. I might add that all my grandparents were born either in Merthyr or Beaufort. Three were not Welsh speaking. My paternal grandfather could speak Welsh, since he was brought up with his grandmother (His father sadly was killed, before my grandfather was born; his mother re married but my grandfather’s three half sisters and half brother spoke only English) but he didn’t pass it on to his children (He would sometimes swear in Welsh, so as not to offend my grandmother). I believe I am as entitled to live here as anyone and to do so without discrimination.

Whether I am anti Welsh depends on your views. Rhun Ap Iorweth would no doubt say I am. I would disagree, though I am against what he, his party and his Quislings in Welsh Labour seek to do to Wales. If the charge is that I am anti Welsh language, then I would say that I am only against it being FORCED on people, linked to nationalism or misused to discriminate against people, who don’t speak it. Language is only a means of communication and the main thing is that everyone understands what has to be said (This site being a good example). Aside from perhaps some very recent incomers, everyone in Wales understands English and (Based only on Drakeford’s aim, of 1000 000 Welsh speakers by 2050) I am guessing that perhaps around 20 or 30% presently speak Welsh (Let us assume fluently). I suspect you will find many of these are west of the Vale of Glamorgan/Hirwaun and that, in these areas, the percentage of bi lingual Welsh speakers is much more than 25 or 30%; in places, such as Tregaron, perhaps close on 100%. I am not familiar with much north of Brecon but I know some people from the Wrexham area and they tend to sound Liverpudlian. I don’ t think it is necessary or reasonable to pass a Welsh Language Act, that makes Welsh the official language, when the majority don’t speak it. I don’t think it is reasonable for road signs to be in Welsh first, where the majority don’t understand Welsh (They need to be clear and concise). I don’t think it is reasonable for all manner of automated phone systems to be answered first in Welsh and for people, who don’t understand it, to have to listen to something they don’t understand (At least the numbers should be separate). Tellingly 999 is in English only. In the Welsh speaking areas, people don’t need to be told to speak Welsh, by a one size fits all Welsh language act; they just do it. English speakers don’t need and have no English language act and I think there are more important things, on which money should be spent. The same applies to many of the items this site has highlighted, such as mysterious and murky quango type organisations, many apparently involved in so called “Green” issues. The one size fits all 20mph speed limit scheme is another, as was the purchase of Camp Drakeford (Gilestone Farm).

Martin Evans

I think the persecution complex and the obsession with language comes from Plaid Cymru (I have come into contact with one or two of the kinds of people you describe). I haven’t always felt this way and until the Welsh Assembly was created and morphed into the Welsh junta, people could please themselves more and it wasn’t an issue. It’s an ongoing process and I don’t know where it will end. These things (To use the phrase of someone who lived in Germany throughout the 1930s) develop drip by drip and it is only with time, that the full implications become clear.

I am lucky to be at the end of my working life (And self employed) but I have heard it said (By a former MP from England) that in order to get a senior position, in the Welsh private sector, you really need to speak Welsh, whilst in the public sector, it is essential.

I haven’t tried to decide who is or isn’t Welsh; that would be an impossible task. Are you suggesting it is someone who speaks Welsh? I simply suggest that to impose a Welsh first policy, in the east of Wales, is unreasonable. As to the rest of Wales, it serves no purpose; the people will do as they wish. Ironically, when I visited Porthmadoc, the main railway station there had no Welsh announcements, yet in Abergavenny, they came first. Granted the Welsh speakers, of Porthmadoc, could understand the English announcements but they may well have preferred them to be in Welsh. It seems to me that the Welsh junta are trying to force it where it’s not wanted. It’s not just in matters of language that the Welsh junta are dabbling with what could be called social engineering. Give them time and Wales will end up as an outpost of North Korea and if Starmer survives long enough, that could apply to the rest of Britain. I think the EU poked it’s nose in where it had no business and that is what was essentially wrong with it. I don’t think the idea of the EEC, as a trading organisation, was so wrong but making it into the EU was more than a step too far but one which didn’t happen overnight.

If my views are wearing and not welcome on this site, I am happy to unsubscribe.

Martin Evans

The size and scale of the places have nothing to do with it. When the Welsh Assembly was first suggested, it was justified as democratising the Welsh Office. It has become much more than that (I don’t know that it ever was that), as some opponents predicted it would. I hasn’t happened overnight, rather by a fairly constant process, which some hope will result in Wales becoming an independent country, within and funded by the EU or a state, within a state, funded by the UK Treasury. Based on many of your past criticisms, of the regime in Cardiff, I don’t believe you would be in favour of either outcome and indeed, you recently suggested the idea of independence be put on hold. I don’t think the Assembly justifies it’s existence and what powers it has could be devolved to local authorities.

Ioan Richard

Martin you say I have come into contact with one or two of the kinds of people you describe”. That’s a very small number to be called even a sample. You must lead a very isolated life. Get out more frequently and talk to more real people before self inventing peculiar opinions about Wales and all things Welsh.

Martin Evans

The reason I haven’t come into contact with more of those people is because there aren’t the kind of people I want to meet; the ones who really do have chips on their shoulders and peculiar ideas.

Martin Evans

Perhaps good advice for Mr Richard?

I am not going to get drawn into trading personal insults but would ask my detractors whether they would be happy if the Welsh language act was repealed or would they take to the streets armed with aerosol paint?

Martin Evans

You didn’t answer the question but I know the answer. You wouldn’t be happy were the shoe on the other foot and English came first. It wasn’t non Welsh speakers who used to daub out signs all those years ago. They were the ones who clearly had nightmares about signs.

There is more to this than just signs and all I have suggested is that a one size fits all WLA is wrong. If decisions, of this kind, were taken on a local basis (If the Welsh Assembly didn’t exist), then they could reflect the linguistic tendencies of an area. What you seem to want to do is force your beliefs and preferences on everyone in Wales.

Ioan Richard

Martin, your reply makes no grammatical sense. Did they teach English in your school? Was it a Welsh only school?

Martin Evans

I got a good grades in both my English O levels.

Ioan Richard

This reply is bad ENGLISH grammar again. Read it out loud to yourself.
You wrote earlier ” If the charge is that I am anti Welsh language, then I would say that I am only against it being FORCED on people”.
It seems to me, that it’s a pity the English language was not forced upon you in the grammar lessons.
Was your English teacher Welsh? This is getting hilarious.

Jonathan Dean

As a constituent of Rhun ap Iorwerth, and have met him many times, and campaigned on various issues and spoken in public alongside him, I don’t recognise any of what you say about him or Plaid

My father ran a nuclear power station, my mother a social worker, neither spoke a word of Welsh and my mother still struggles to pronounce the name of the place she lives, after 60 years

Martin Evans

Many thanks; the term control freaks springs to mind and it does rather bear out the idea of giving an inch and a mile being taken. Wales certainly suffers from a severe case of over (Not to mention bad) government.

Jonathan Dean

Who or what are the”Welsh junta” forcing their will on you?

Ioan Richard

I must have missed it, but I did not see mention during this election campaign of the 1968 Caerffili By-Election when Dr Phil Williams, Plaid Cymru, nearly took the seat with 14,274 votes to Labour’s Alfred Evans 16,148.
Another interesting thing is that this latest sensational 2025 result only made a small report on page 15 of Swansea’s Evening Post. It’s as if the Swansea editor and his readers are not interested in Welsh politics unless it’s Labour. The distance between them is less than 45 miles. So you would think this merited better detailed reporting in Swansea due to its possible implications to the May 2026 Senedd elections for all of Wales. Further more in that a very prominent Swansea Councillor is going to stand for Labour for the Senedd in May. When will he declare where?

Wynne

Great post Jac. I agree with your concluding statement, as copied below.

“Which means that the big winner last night in Caerffili was, and the big winner next May will be, the Globalist agenda.”

I wish more people in Wales would understand that Welsh Government ministers are WEF puppets, as depicted in the graphic on the side bar of your blog.

Wynne

If you do publish another post on the subject of globalism Jac you may wish to include the G3P chart attached. It’s the best chart I have seen that helps to explain the public / private partnership process.

G3P_chart
Dafis

Frankly, you don’t need a chart to explain the evil axis between big government and international big business, sometimes regarded as the international money conspiracy. This axis has cracks in it due to individuals’ and some organisations’ craving for power. Maybe that’s what will bring about its ultimate failure. Wokey bullshit and a fixation with oddball green gospels should provide ample ammo for the self-destruction processes to accelerate.

Dafis

Had a conversation on that very subject earlier today. A neighbour, bit of a BritNat Unionist, said he was pleased that Plaid beat Labour in Caerphilly. I expressed some surprise expecting him to bang the Reform drum. No, he said, let them (Reform) win seats at Westminster where they can put an end to the Milliband folly. Then a spot of anger about the green levy crap and how it needs removing in this upcoming budget. Reeves banging on about black holes and Milliband’s crazy scheme is the biggest black hole of the lot.

Jonathan Dean

My greatest disappointment with Miliband is he has yet to have a single idea of his own. He’s currently implementing the Boris Johnson strategy from 2022 to deliver the Theresa May target from 2019

Jonathan Dean

That would be a great help as I don’t understand what you’re going on about re globalism

Jonathan Dean

Globalism for Dummies

Jonathan Dean

I wasn’t aware of either of those things

Jonathan Dean

Oh that! Read it yesterday. I didn’t interpret that as “the climate scam is falling apart”, more that there is much more to do as well as address climate change. I would have thought you saw that as a bad thing

Jonathan Dean

Well if climate change is naturally abating, that would be wonderful. Now we can get back to ditching fossil fuels for all the other reasons that we used to use, and now we have better technology to do it

Jonathan Dean

Any oil state can become problematic, not just the Middle East, that’s why we’ve been trying to wean ourselves off it for as long as I can remember

I’m pretty sure the reliability of supply hasn’t changed over the past couple of decades while renewables have grown. You’ll be talking about yo-yos and gridwatch next 😉

Jonathan Dean

USA and Russia, certainly. Just look at both of them now!

Norway are the exception, but they’re not in the position of the others

Jonathan Dean

er … no. Quite shameful the way Trump backs Putin against Ukraine, but then Putin has all the photos, and probably more! We’ll just have to wait until his presidency finishes, or he is assassinated, before things can return to any type of normality

Have you done an update on Nathan Gill! I was reading your old stuff on him not so long ago

Dafis

or unreliables as they might be known in the land of rational sensible folk.

Jonathan Dean

Except they aren’t unreliable. They do exactly what you would expect them to do. No wind, no sun, no generation

Unreliable would be doing what you didn’t expect them to do. Renewables are very reliable

Dafis

Can’t be counted on to deliver juice when needed. That in my book is “unreliable”. No point telling me to hold off doing anything until the sun shines or the wind blows!

Jonathan Dean

Ok, it’s how you define unreliable, but that’s not how the reliability of machinery is defined. Is your car unreliable if it fails to start when it has no fuel in?

But in any case, we don’t need them to, as we will not have only wind turbines

Martin Evans

When Labour do badly in Wales, Plaid Cymru pick up the pieces. Frankly, Plaid Cymru have been pulling Labour’s strings and are as responsible for the performance of the Welsh junta as anyone (Something they now chose to forget). Yes, Plaid would like Wales to be in the EU, as their plan is based on someone else (Preferably not the hated English) providing the money, whilst they play at being a government.

There was a time when Caerphilly was a border town, the river being the border. Plaid Cymru don’t represent such places but know that this is where the votes are to be had and the lemmings therein fall for their propaganda. From the frying pan into the fire.

Cardiff never used to be pro Plaid; during the 1970s, it was said that most Cardiff TV aerials pointed over the water, rather than to BBC Wales/HTV. I don’t know what has changed and whether the Welsh Office and Assembly has brought in people from other areas.

Martin Evans

It would perhaps depend on which part of Monmouthshire/Gwent. Once you get to Brynmawr (Which was Breconshire), you are clearly in an area similar (But still with differences) to Merthyr. Go to the other side of the old county and it’s another story, perhaps borne out by the fact that in 2011, the current Monmouthshire voted against further powers for the Assembly. Certainly my father’s uncle, who hailed from Penallt, was a Dean Forester through and through. He worked as a farrier in Merthyr Vale Colliery (I think he had an aunt in Merthyr Vale or Aberfan and went there to get work) but every holiday was back at his brother’s farm in Clearwell. He hoped to retire back to the Forest of Dean but he only lived about five years after he retired and it never happened.

Interestingly, someone has made the point about the WRU. I have long felt that rugby has been misused for political purposes and some of the more suggestible may see politics in terms of the rugby field. I shall never forget Welsh rugby players being paraded, in favour of a yes vote, during the 2011 referendum. Maybe they would be the new Free Wales Army?

Martin Evans

I’m not on X or any other social media. I know nothing about that.

Gwent never was an English County, Monmouthshire was. My father’s uncle was born in the far east of Monmouthshire and was very much a Forest of Dean man. Beyond that I don’t know whether he classified himself as English or British and he was dead before 1974. The point is that Monmouthshire covered a large area and there was a big difference in outlooks between Monmouth and Aberbargoed.

Martin Evans

Based on 2011 results, the present day Monmouthshire isn’t well disposed towards increasing the powers of the Assembly, though the former Monmouthshire areas, of Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen etc did vote yes. At the time, someone (I forget who) suggested kicking Monmouthshire out of Wales.

Liz

You cant spell it Caerphilly any more its Caerffili…haha…joke!! but its true…

Martin Evans

I think usage should decide. If you walk around Tredegar, you don’t hear Welsh used, yet in Porthmadoc, you hear it a lot. However, it’s not forced on you in Porthmadoc, the way it is in the Valleys (At least it wasn’t in 2013).

Martin Evans

Probably Wales but there is more to politics than rugby (Rugby was more popular in the Gwent Valleys than it was in Merthyr, which was always a football town). You don’t have to be from Manchester to support Man Utd. I remember being in Cardiff on the day Wales won the Grandslam in 1978 (France were playing there) but due to the politicisation of rugby, I now see a defeat for Wales as one in the eye for that process.

I don’t think that, if we only count the last 2000 years, with all the mixing that has gone on, any of us can truly say we are anything more specific than British. I know one of my great grandmothers was from Cardigan, whilst that my maternal grandfather’s grandmother was from Somerset and that I was born in what was England but is now Wales. Had I been born in China, that wouldn’t make me a Chinaman.

The problem is that language is too tied up in Plaid Labour politics. Drakeford apparently wants there to be 1000 000 Welsh speakers by 2050, suggesting we are some way off that. If we assume that there are about 3 000 000 people living in Wales, all of whom will be fluent in English, 1 000 000 would still represent a minority. Granted, many of them will live in the (To use the east Monmouthshire analogy) mostly sparsely populated areas of the north and west, where they may well represent a majority. However, in Tredegar (No matter what rugby team people support), the majority speak only English and I don’t feel it is reasonable to give priority to the minority. If you dial 101, you are even told, in Welsh first, what to press in order to speak to someone in English. If you understood that, why would you need to?

If people, in Porthmadoc, chose to speak Welsh, that is one thing but don’t force it in places like Abergavenny (In 2013, when I spent a memorable week in Porthmadoc, I went by train, including the Ffestiniog Railway – at Abergavenny Welsh came first, yet a Porthmadoc BR station, there was no Welsh at all, which seemed rather odd). If I decided to emigrate to France, I feel it reasonable that I first learn the language. Similarly, even if only for social reasons, I may feel the need to learn Welsh if I wanted to move to Llandeilo. The fact is I want to stay put but I don’t feel I should have to learn any other language, to do that or to be made a second class citizen if I don’t.

David Smith

In a sense, the nation is the ultimate fiat concept; it is because we say it is. A group of people who feel a kinship based on a common shared history. The logical endgame to this guy’s logic is that black or Asian ethnic minority people born here are not British, English, or Welsh, etc. He makes the same mistake as the reparations lot, in his do-goodery and virtue-signalling efforts towards world citizenship.

That lot are too stupid to realise they are parroting the racial purity dialogue of the Nazis and plantation owners by default in their demands that African-descended people be compensated for past wrongs. Where would such a line be drawn as to who’s eligible, and how the fuck would any such allocations be quantified?

Jonathan Dean

This “forcing” you keep going on about. Can you give me one example of you being forced?

David Smith

I’ve a suggestion. The logical extrapolation of your dismissal of nations and their home territories as mere ‘lines on maps’, is that there should be no such imaginary line in Ireland. Why not take your message of oneness to the good loyal Crown subjects of the Shankill Road in Belfast, and see how you get on?

Fran

Interesting commentary. At least you are looking at the result more deeply than most. I lived in Caerphilly until recently and thought Reform had a good chance. Husband though is a Valleys boy and was convinced that a Socialist would win, and let’s face it Plaid are Welsh speaking Labour. Sadly, all that will happen is that Welsh Labour will double down saying that clearly they need to apply their policies even more stringently, they are incapable of honestly investigating what the Welsh actually want and need. Worse because they are not honest with themselves or the Welsh people they are incapable of doing those difficult, and I mean really difficult, things that are needed to achieve success for Wales.

Liz

very true…but I object to the fake Welshification too…I am Welsh and speak it…but I grew up in N Wales, and bomb blast accidentally killing 2 men in 69…and its not fake news as someone said to me to blacken Plaid…but if you live in N Wales the anti English hatred is growing like a poison…it always was bubbling away, you walked into a pub and spoke English you were either ignored or scorned at and stared at…so I would start speaking Welsh to embarras them…always worked…but we rely on tourism…so politeness would be a good idea…my grandfathers side of the family were from the Valleys, but they were into everything and did alright for themselves…

Jonathan Dean

“the anti English hatred is growing like a poison”???

Not in the north Wales I live in

Nicola Lund

Great analysis.
For some it might be the agenda, rather than the party that pushes it. For many hard of thinking people, it’s just like switching brands of washing powder to see if it makes a difference, when most of the brands simply aren’t fit for purpose.

Mikee

Interesting putting the cart before the cook, although it said that too many cooks upset the apple cart, particularly in a land where the most inoffensive is king.
it staggers me that our national rugby team and politics are not linked, inasmuch as there not only appears to be a lack of direction in both but it has become common practice to celebrate losing by a narrow margin, however is there any winners or losers, in my opinion yes there’s always someone who will benefit from others failures, in this case I would suggest it’s Plaid, although maybe result will entice others to stand up and be counted, doubt though if this would be the case on a national level and we will once again be governed by those who wear the right colour !!

Ioan Richard

Why was Carwyn James overlooked by WRU?

David Smith

Is Ponce Willipeg still the patron? What a fucking sick joke that is. What other national sporting side has a scion of the Old Enemy’s ruling dynasty as a patron? The cunts.

Nigel Bull

The relationship was clear during the last referendum when more power was sought by Roger Lewis as one of the people (and chosen by Labour) just as Labour approved finance for the building of a rugby centre of excellence in North Wales. More than a little mutual back scratching going on there! True to form in the years since it has achieved very little other than your point!

Alison Bond

Unsurprisingly Jac yours are the most interesting comments I’ve heard today about the Caerffili by election. And yes, Alan Davies did come out with those comments on the Today Programme. I couldn’t believe my ears! Labour in Greater Manchester and the wider NorthWest of England, with no “nationalist” party around to buffer Reform votes are toast, as that existential Labour showing in Cymru demonstrates.

Jason Barker

Did plaid really win?
They are very unpopular in Carmarthenshire, seen as labour sells outs.
Is the fix already in for may?

Jonathan Dean

But Plaid most definitely don’t support pylons

Jonathan Dean

No idea about those

Ioan Richard

You say “They are very unpopular in Carmarthenshire”, is that due to Plaid Cymru’s total committed support for giant Wind Turbines in the rural areas?

Jason Barker

Yup, that and the ongoing war on farmers. Seen as total sell outs

Dafis

Plaid have huge capacity for shooting themselves in both feet. Someone has injected the party with an anti-farmer virus and topped it up with some drug that induces abnormal affection towards wind turbines and their cumbersome infrastructure.