An Election and a Referendum

This post examines two important votes being held in 2016; the Welsh Assembly elections on May 9th and the EU referendum on (possibly) June 23rd.

First, we shall look at the elections to our beloved and respected Assembly, wherein may already be found talent dazzling to the point of being a hazard to pilots (not that many of those intrepid aviators will be heading for the local airport) before moving on to consider the anticipated EU referendum

WELSH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

At present, Labour has 30 of the 60 seats, and is almost certain to lose a few, the only questions are, which ones, and to which other party or parties will those seats be lost?

To help you make comparisons I have compiled the table below, which shows each party’s percentage of the vote in 2011 compared with the percentages predicted by the latest available poll. You will note that the figures in the recent poll do not add up to 100, this is almost certainly due to respondents stating their intention to vote for the kind of minor parties that combined to give us the ‘Other’ figure in the 2011 results.

Assembly elections poll

These poll figures look credible for Labour but rather odd for the other parties due to little or no difference between the constituency votes and the regional list votes. Even so, the poll confirms that Labour will be the biggest loser and Ukip the biggest winner.

Though the level of Ukip’s support is rather surprising seeing as the party keeps choosing unknown or unattractive candidates (the one often mutating into the other) and in other ways shooting itself in both feet. It begins to look as if Ukip’s leaders could be filmed sacrificing Romanian migrants on Aberystwyth promenade, bollock naked with their nether regions painted bright green, and still not lose support.

As for the other parties, it’s very much a case of little or no change which will, after almost a year of Tory government at Westminster, be a relief to the Conservatives; an even bigger relief to the Lib Dems following their near-extermination in the last May’s UK elections; but a major disappointment to Plaid Cymru, who should be the main beneficiary of Labour and Lib Dems losing support.

Though looked at from another angle Plaid’s level of support might pleasantly surprise some. Let me explain. The Party of Wales would have us believe that it’s a radical party, offering change, improvement. Yet down in Carmarthenshire, where Plaid became the larger party in a coalition last year (after the ‘Independents’ refused to work with Labour any more), Mark James, the tyrannical and vindictive chief executive, carries on as if nothing has happened!

The other party to be disappointed by the poll findings will be the Green Party of Englandandwales. Despite claimed increases in membership, and Welsh people being spotted in the ranks, it seems that the Greens still have difficulty in attracting support. But then, this is a party so English, so frightfully middle class in its membership and support, that it makes the Tories look like a Welsh proletarian rabble.

As I’ve been predicting for some time now, after the Assembly elections we shall probably see Labour in coalition with Plaid Cymru. Though if by some some electoral miracle Labour can cobble together a coalition with Lib Dems and Greens that leaves Plaid Cymru out in the cold, then Plaid will be condemned to another five years of impotence. A period the party may struggle to survive.

Ukip will do very well. In June last year I predicted the Kippers would gain 7 seats, and in October I upped my estimate to 10. (The latest poll suggests 9.) If, as is now being predicted, the EU referendum is held in June, and that EU campaign overshadows the Assembly elections, then Ukip will be the only beneficiary because all the other parties are pro EU and will be singing the same song.

And here’s a thought to cheer you all up. If the Assembly elections are indeed dominated by the EU referendum debate then it is not inconceivable that Ukip could win seats in ‘volatile’ constituencies that in May will be five- or even six-cornered contests. Gaining a percentage of the vote in the low to middle twenties could do it.

‘Nathan Gill, AM for Ynys Môn’ has a certain ring to it, n’est pas?

Gill of course is currently an MEP, which is a handy link to the next part of this post.

THE EU REFERENDUM

THE BIG PICTURE

When I was young and idealistic, the matinee idol of the nationalist fringe, I considered myself to be quite the ‘European’. With my study of history, my admiration for Charles de Gaulle, being avowedly anti-communist, and after reading The American Challenge, I persuaded myself that a strong Europe was needed as a bulwark against both the USSR and the USA.

I still believe I was right, but the world has moved on. For a start, the Soviet Union is no more, and its demise was the cue for the USA to begin its advance in eastern Europe, first with its war on Serbia and then by gradually encircling Russia with newly signed up members of NATO. Have you ever stopped to think how weird that is?

NATO started life in 1949 as an alliance to deter the Soviet Union from invading western Europe (if indeed the USSR ever had that intention). It was a Cold War organisation, from the era of Dr Strangelove, which should have ceased to exist along with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, yet NATO has expanded since the Cold War ended. This is bizarre.

Strangelove

Unless of course you understand that the USA (and to a lesser degree, the ‘West’) must have enemies. Now this presents a problem for a country bordered only by friendly and peaceful Canada to the north and to the south by a third world state where the strongest armed forces appear to be those of the drug cartels.

Clearly this lack of a credible threat is an inconvenience to the military-industrial complex, neocons, the National Rifle Association, big corporations, news media, and politicians looking to make a name for themselves. So ‘enemies’ have to found elsewhere, which has resulted in a succession of ‘threats’ being exposed since the Second World War. These are often pantomime villains of dusky hue, with difficult to pronounce names, and living in far-off lands of which most Americans know very little. Plus of course we have the post WWII constant – USSR / Russia.

At this point many of you will be wondering why, in a section headed ‘The EU Referendum’, I’m banging on about NATO and US foreign policy. There are two principle reasons.

First, a single political unit allows the US – as we are now seeing with TTIP – to gain preferential access to the richest market on earth through influencing just a few people. The danger here should be obvious to all. Second, the EU is viewed by many US policy-makers as a sister-body or even an extension of NATO. It’s no coincidence that NATO and the EU have marched east almost hand in hand.

Let me try to explain the NATO-EU link with the table I’ve compiled below. It gives the dates that eastern European countries joined first NATO and then the European Union. And it has always been in that order (sometimes simultaneous), but never is EU membership allowed before joining NATO.

The delay in Albania’s accession to the EU can be explained by the fact that the country is a ramshackle land with large parts, especially the area bordering the Serbian province of Kosovo, controlled by people-smugglers, drug-traffickers, organ-harvesters and a motley assortment of old-fashioned vendetta-pursuing, blood-feuding bandit chiefs. Albania’s chief export is gangsters.

NATO

An exception to the NATO-followed-by-EU rule is of course Turkey, which has been a NATO member since 1952. No surprise then to learn that there have always been voices in the upper reaches of the EU arguing in favour of admitting Turkey. ‘Bridge to the Islamic world’ and other bollocks has been spouted in support of this idiocy. The truth is that the USA wants to reward its faithful ally – and currently chief Bear-baiter – so it periodically applies pressure on the EU to let Turkey join the club.

Turkey, that backward, Islamist state where the security services bomb their own people. Turkey, the country that persecutes its fifteen million Kurds and has a very ambivalent attitude towards ISIL. Turkey, that just a century ago introduced the world to the concept of holocaust with its butchering of the Armenians.

In the ongoing conflict in Syria the USA has encouraged Turkey to provoke Russia, and although the US may belatedly be trying to rein in its proxy, there remains the possibility that this dysfunctional country could start World War Three. If Russia does retaliate to Turkish provocation then we (and here I have to mean the UK), as fellow-members of NATO, are Treaty-bound to line up with Turkey.

How do you feel about going to war with Russia because Turkey has done something stupid and deliberately provocative?

THE VIEW FROM WALES

Leaving aside these wider concerns, what should be our approach to this referendum from a purely Welsh perspective?

‘Wales does well out the EU’ is a mantra trotted out by those urging us to vote to stay in. ‘Does well’ is just a euphemism for hand-outs, we export little. In other words, we get EU grants because we are so bloody poor. Which makes this ‘argument’ just another defence of begging-bowl politics, an acceptance of Wales’ poverty and deprivation.

And what has happened to the billions we’ve received in EU funding? Where are the great infrastructure projects? Where is the multi-skilled workforce we’ve trained? Where are the successful indigenous companies the funding was used to start? Nowhere to be seen, bois bach!

That’s because the greater part of this windfall has been wasted on the shysters and parasites of the Third Sector. Most of whom – unsurprisingly – seem to have Labour Party connections. 

If the UK left the EU then the UK government would have to make up the lost EU funding. If it didn’t, we’d have to go without the Third Sector. (Don’t cry!) And if the UK government didn’t make up the shortfall, then it might cause a few more people here to wake from their slumbers.

Looking further afield, the UK leaving the EU would have far more serious repercussions for England, more specifically south east England, and to be very, very specific, the City of London. Because if the UK left the EU then many of the banks, investment houses and other financial institutions would decamp for Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich, Berlin, etc.

This would result in tens of thousands of very well paid jobs being lost to London, and a few hundred thousand more would be lost in a knock-on effect. So just spare a thought for all those Lamborghini salesmen, tailors, high-class hookers, hairdressers, tattooists, coke suppliers, estate agents, jewellers, etc., etc.

eu_logo

Remove the City of London from the balance sheet and the economy of England heads south very fast. With the City of London creating less wealth the UK economy must suffer, and despite the malaise being centred on London we can be sure that – as ever – the Old Etonians will see to it that peripheral areas suffer most.

This should serve as another wake-up call to the slumberers who unquestioningly believe that London rule is best for Wales.

Another argument used is that we must vote to stay in the EU to prove how different we are to England (assuming the English vote to leave). A position that invariably cites the fact that Scotland will definitely vote to stay in. Let’s look at this argument in a bit more detail.

First, Wales is not Scotland. The obvious stated, let me add that many hundreds of thousands of Scots will vote to stay in the EU for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the EU itself. It’s all about promoting independence, hoping that England – or Englandandwales – votes for Brexit.

Should there be a vote south of the border to leave the EU, and should that decision lead to Scottish independence, then it will reverberate here no matter how Wales voted. Scottish independence will concentrate minds in Wales no matter how it comes about and will make redundant whatever views may have been held in Wales when Scottish independence was just a vague possibility.

So let me spell it out. How Wales votes in the EU referendum is almost unimportant. The vote is being hyped up in Wales by those posturers who like to regard themselves as ‘progressive’, and done in order to show how superior they are to the ‘xenophobes’ who want to leave the wonderful EU. Smug, precious, and self-deluding bollocks!

CONCLUSION

There is no party standing in the Assembly elections for which a nationalist can honestly vote. That being so, there is an argument to be made for voting for any party that might help weaken the regional socialist party that for decades now has done so much damage to the Welsh cause.

Personally, I probably won’t bother voting. There’s a temptation to toddle along to the polling station and scribble ‘None of the above’ on my ballot paper, but that’s always struck me as a bit desperate unless part of an organised campaign.

When it comes to the EU referendum I shall definitely vote to leave the EU. That’s because the EU we know today is a great disappointment for someone of my age who genuinely wanted to see a strong and democratic Europe play a leading role in the world.

Instead, we have a byzantine nightmare that I suspect no one properly understands, a monster created by bureaucrats that seems to have been subverted to serve US economic and strategic interests rather than working for the good of Europeans.

And yet, I could still be converted to a united Europe, a European army, a European diplomatic corps . . . but my Europe would need leaders of stature, not the anonymous, paper-shuffling committeemen we are cursed with today.

If only the General would come back . . .

66 thoughts on “An Election and a Referendum

      1. Anonymous

        Ok. I took your underlining of ‘never is’ too broadly.

        Finland has had to manage its difficult neighbour for decades and its situation with the EU and NATO make it unique. During the cold war the Finnish-Soviet relationship gave rise to the term Finlandization – ‘to become like Finland’ – a process by which one powerful country strongly influences the policies of a smaller neighbouring country while allowing it to keep its independence and its own political system.

        Today the majority in Finland oppose NATO membership in order not to p*ss off Russia.

        The majority however also support EU membership. Some believe that the EU would not tolerate an invasion of a member country (and in particular a Euro currency member) and would take drastic actions to provide military and other assistance.

        1. Finland’s relationship with Russia is unique. If I have time, and when I sober up, I shall explain all, taking in Sibelius and Finlandia.

          1. Anonymous

            I look forward to that. Living there made me realise a lot about of my own Welsh identity – became a ‘Gwell Gymro oddi Gartref’. Now back yn y fro, but with ties still, it continues to inform it.

  1. Ian Perryman

    According to the opinion polls before the last general election UKIP were going to win 30 seats in the Westminster parliament – and we all know how that turned out.

    I would suggest that NATO has expanded since the Cold War because Russia is still the fourth largest military force in the world with three quarters of a million frontline troops, more tanks than any other country on the planet, and the world’s third largest air force, – and of course there’s the small matter of China – the second largest military machine on the planet.

    The Europe referendum has nothing to do with immigration, benefit payments etc. – that’s all a smoke screen, which is why their figures are so easily discredited. It’s all about keeping the Tory party’s chums in the City out of the reach of European legislation.

    I doubt that, at the end of the day, we will leave Europe because every party political leader, bar one, will tell their supporters to vote to stay in – and of course the Americans won’t like it if we leave, because we are their proxy (note the letter ‘r’) voice in Brussels.

    Voting to leave is just self-indulgent nonsense. You can’t turn the clock back 40 years and expect everything to be what it was. The Empire is gone, the Commonwealth is gone, the preferential trading partnerships with other non-European countries are gone, the UK’s manufacturing industry is gone, European co-operation on maintaining the value of pound Sterling will disappear and London is not the unchallenged financial capital of the world any longer.

    Leaving Europe is not just about leaving Europe. If you leave it puts you in direct competition with one of the largest free trade zones on the planet, right on your doorstep. Don’t expect any favours or special deals – there won’t be any.

    The problem is that the great British public, spoon fed their daily dose of World War II films and avid consumers of a Brit nationalist press, don’t realise what an empty shell of a a country the UK has become.

    Without Europe the UK is as vulnerable as a new born lamb on a motorway.

    Vote to stay in, and vote to get the London Labour Party branch office out of the Senedd. Then we might get a Welsh Government that can let Wales benefit properly from membership of the European Union.

    1. Maybe I should have spelled it out. I am arguing that things need to get worse before they can get better. I accept almost all you say about the consequences of Brexit, which is why I believe that the long-term interests of Wales will be best served by leaving the EU. Call me irresponsible, call me cynical, call me Machiavellian, but if you think about it, you know I’ve got a point.

    2. dafis

      ” ………let Wales benefit properly from membership of the EU …..”

      What precisely does that mean? That we get an alternative approach to handling the begging bowl ? that we manipulate the “poverty statistics” to ensure we stay in the bottom division alongside all those emerging satellite states in Eastern Europe destined to become vassal states of the EUSSR having had plenty of lessons while occupied by the USSR ?
      The European project is such a deviant exercise in accumulation of power that not even UKIP can grasp the magnitude of its intentions. Wales can forget any real aspiration if we remain part of this lot, at best we might scramble a minor incremental materialistic improvement but will be condemned to a satellite vassal status for ever. This EU edifice needs to be exploded, the bureaucrats put out of work and the dirty deals with global corporations torn up. Then we might start to roll out a new vision based on freedom and independence, and reorientate to coexist with most other parts of the world . Until then without change we just get used to being regulated – it’s for your own good, or so the creeps in Brussels will tell you.

  2. We are seeing the birth of Project Fear Mk 2. The BBc mentioned yesterday that by far the most imporant leader of Europe is Merkel. What kind of equality is that? Agree with Jac. The EU has been an enormous dissapointment.

    1. Colin

      An enormous let down is an enormous understatement. I think it has been disaster for us, if we were to get independence and leave Europe it would be a rough time for Wales without a doubt but it would be the only way we get any better than we are doing now. Just look at our traditional industries, coal, steel, farming…… the only growth industry here now is exploitation

  3. dafis

    I appreciate your view on the Assembly and we certainly get the politicians we deserve, a bunch of conniving committee punters better suite to old style town hall “politics”. That said I will look at my motley crew of local candidates, including dear old Carwyn, the Santa Claus of Welsh politics. He personifies the curse of gifts – so often politicians say that they will give this & that, when in reality they give nothing cos it’s paid for by us !!

    The Tories , bless them, have punted a Syrian immigrant into this patch – can you credit it ? That’s real inclusivity, or is it taking the piss ? Nice boy but will go down like a lead balloon. I haven’t seen any of the others yet but no doubt they will be bottom of barrel material thus giving CJ a clear run back into Senedd, his domain secured without much of a fight. No doubt there are other constituencies where this pattern will be repeated.

    So 10k payrise secured and another round of mediocrity safely installed at greater expense to the taxpaying mug public. Maybe we need a nasty little revolution just to remind people that governing involves stewardship of the trust of people to act in the interests of those people.

    Any good ideas on how that gets done ?

  4. I thought you could have gone out to vote for me in the PCC elections especially when you consider the amount of time I spend in Meirionnydd (don’t you just hate South Gwynedd!) I will bring a box of leaflets down to you next week and you can sign my nomination papers same time! ????

    1. I’d forgotten about the PCC elections. I suppose I’l vote for you. You’re also welcome to drop off some leaflets. When are you planning to come?

      1. dafis

        PCC ? – yet another layer of roles for professional hangers-on and fellow travellers. Look at South Wales – led by the ever present party hack, Mr Michael, and used as a “career development” stop by that Labour woman Sophie Howe who is now moved onto bigger & better things in the Assembly regime.

        1. I agree. The way these jobs have been used for political advancement by party hacks discredits the whole idea of a PCC.

  5. Brychan

    The predicted election result for the Senedd in 2016 is exactly the result of the election result of the devolved parliament in Slovenia in 1990. The pro-devolution SDP (Labour) not having an outright majority, the pro-union establishment Conservative-Liberal party in second, with the nationalist party (outright independence) coming in at only 13% of the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovenian_parliamentary_election,_1990

    The fragmentation of the Soviet block resulted in significant issues for the unification of Yugoslavia even though ‘devolved’ democracy already existed and Yugoslavia had a more ‘arms length relationship with the Soviet block. I am convinced a full exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union would have a similar effect on the European Union. It would also have a similar effect on issues of unity of the United Kingdom.

    One year after the 1990 election of the Solvenia devolved parliemnet there was pre-emptive action by the Yugoslav government to consolidate the union. The issue that kicked it all off was who controls the police and legal system. It is shown here…

    It was this action that prompted the people of Slovenia to refuse to be occupied and dominated and that changed support for outright Slovenia independence from 20% to 90%. The rest is history.

    Slovenia is now a prosperous independent country the size of Wales with top-table independent membership of the European Union. Isn’t that what we want for Wales?

    All I ask is : a year after a Brexit, for England (on behalf of the United Kingdom) to put tanks on the M4/A55, to ‘enforce law and order’.

      1. One day we’ll know the truth about what happened in the Balkans, but we’re unlikely to get it from any western source, unless it’s someone like Snowden or Assange.

      2. Big Gee

        Or as they’ve funded and been the architects of ISIS behind the scenes in Syria? It’s well understood by the more observant that ISIS appeared like a genie out of a bottle – fully armed with US military hardware & ready supplied funding. From where? Israeli (Rothchild & Rockefeller) pockets via the USA + US weapons. Ever wondered why the US & Britain have been so sheepishly lazy about attacking ISIS & why Israel has been so quiet? Simple, the whole fiasco was planned and contrived by the west to implement regime change and chaos in the Middle East.

        A) Because Middle East chaos and in-fighting is honey on the fingertips for Israel

        B) To goad Russia & others into a third world war which would result in a total clampdown on freedoms under the guise of ‘security’ (see the American ‘Patriot’ act and our own anti terrorist acts).

        Then to take the next step towards a world government, a world army and the total enslavement of the 99% who currently only have access to 1% of the world’s wealth i.e. people like us. A plan that was put in place a long, long time ago, by the Rothchild Zionists who bankrolled the whole thing, when organisations like the UN, NATO and the EU were first set-up. First regions, who have their individual national identity watered down (e.g. the European block plus the latest refugee crisis). One stepping stone at a time, and then total domination with the defeat of those who stand in their way.

        The plan has gone a bit awry in the Middle East because no one expected Russia to be so efficient at stopping the shenanigans, so the ante has been raised by getting Turkey to poke more sticks at the Bear. What we are seeing is the conspiracy guided by the ‘hidden hand’ that manouveres these actions, and through the banks dominate governments.

        Of course you won’t make head or tail of this if you only listen to the propaganda coming out of the media in the west, which are only repeater stations for the govenments’ line. For more information on how the Rothchild banking family have been the architects of this mayhem go along to this site: http://www.angelfire.com/music2/fullcircle/rothschild.html

        Sorry to hijack the thread Jac, but I felt I needed to get that off my chest, seeing as Jobovich touched on the subject.

        1. Colin

          I remember maybe 30 years ago watching a documentary on TV about the Rothchild Zionists and their control on the US financial system. It was one of those things where I thought I was the only bugger in the world who saw it and since saw what the worldwide effects were as every time I mentioned it I got dismissed as some form of ranting idiot. I’m firmly in the belief that if they (the Zionists) don’t want it to happen in certainly America then it won’t, or will happen if they do. Basically the real power in the land of the free.

          1. Big Gee

            That’s the clever bit Colin, when you latch on to these facts, and then start repeating it you get labelled as a conspiracy theorist i.e. a ‘loon’. It’s been very well disguised, but is becoming more exposed – thanks to the Internet, which of course they are now trying to clamp down on and control through the governments.

            Poor David Icke has been the greatest victim of ridicule, but if you follow what he’s been saying for the last 25 years you soon realise that he has been spot on with his research and observation.

            In theory, with 7 billion people on earth being controlled by a handful of psychopaths then the very numbers alone should be able to overcome it. However, despite the awakening over recent times, it’s still hard to get people to fully wake up and understand what’s going on. Unless they fully wake up before the ‘New World Order’ gets a total grip with a world government in place, kept in power through an Orwellian scenario by a world army, then it will be game over.

            See http://www.davidicke.com/ & https://www.youtube.com/user/davidicke

            1. Colin

              I’m afraid I’m guilty of thinking he is a nutter too, like many my views like many were/are clouded by the widely publicised claims of yesteryear. Beyond those claims I’m guilty of not investigating, I’ve looked at your links and yes it would certainly seem that he is not such a nutter after all and I’m going to have to look more at him and re-evaluate my thinking about the man.

              Thank you Gwilym and sorry David

        2. Myfanwy

          Yes, that is what is happening, the continuation of Operation Gladio. Most of us are still asleep though, living in an Orwellian dystopia, brainwashed by the mainstream propaganda, with just a chink of light and truth let in via Social Media, which the powers that be are desperate to shut down.

          1. Yes, I should have mentioned that NATO wasn’t just ‘defending’ Europe from Soviet invasion it was also fighting against internal subversion, because following WWII the Communists were very strong in Italy and France, and almost gained power via the ballot box.

            Later came the curious incidents in Belgium, and the security services in Italy using fascists for false flag operations, culminating in the Bologna train station massacre. Following this outrage a certain Roberto Fiore fled to England and became pally with both MI5 and Nick Griffin (then in the National Front).

            This linkage resulted in activity similar to what had been seen in Italy but at a much lower and less bloody level. For example. I can recall NF News with a front page splash saying that the NF now supported Meibion Glyndŵr! Other groups unpopular with UK security services received similar ‘support’.

            I even remember the NF saying they were going to turn up at the Abergele commemoration in 1989 (the twentieth anniversary). Done solely to discredit the Abergele Martyrs and those attending the commemoration. Of course, on the day, there was no sign of the NF, it was all done for publicity.

            For a while, under the direction of Roberto Fiore, the NF became a tool of MI5. This of course confused the knuckle-draggers and led eventually to a split.

            1. Big Gee

              Interesting that you mention ‘false flag’ incidents Jac. It’s as popular a ploy as ever, and is being used more & more. It goes something like this:

              1. PROBLEM (covertly create a problem – think Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya & now Syria)
              2. REACTION (get the desired reaction “do something – we are under threat”)
              3. SOLUTION (impose the solution to the problem you have created – more security, more serveillance & bombing wars)

              See this video for a better explanation of how it works:

              And this video by David Shayler (ex MI5 operative) on one example of how this ‘false flag’ act was actually carried out in the US. It was the catalyst to what has been the ongoing current mayhem (planned & bloody chaos) that we are seeing being executed in the Middle East.

    1. It’s an interesting comparison and links with something I have suggested in the past, which is that independence is more likely to be delivered by Labour than by Plaid, and it will follow some catastrophic breakdown in trust between the Assembly and Westminster. And as in Jugoslavia, events in other areas – i.e. Scotland – will influence thinking in Wales.

      1. Brychan

        The important thing is not to get side-tracked into issues as to what happened a few years later in the irrelevance of Bosnia or Kosovo, which, incidentally is more like northern Ireland with a history of direct plantation and cultural with quasai religious division. Those ‘issues’ did not apply in Slovenia, Croatia, and core-Serbia. These nations are more like Wales, Scotland and England, respectively.

        It is notable that the Serbian majority Yugoslav government decided to intervene directly in Slovenia rather than Croatia. Croatia declared a stronger will of independence at the time, and had already elected a majority nationalist devolved chamber. Sending Serbian tanks into Slovenia was seen as a softer option, but it had the opposite result. Both got independence. Croatia already having declared and the nationalists later gaining an outright majority in Slovenia, which they didn’t previously have.

        Very much like Scotland and Wales.

  6. Anonymous

    I’ll probably end up voting for Plaid in the Assembly election, not for what it is but for what people, especially outside Wales, think it is. They think it is a national party devoted to defending the Welsh nation. It’s good for people to think there is a Welsh nation and that it has its defenders, even if it doesn’t.

    I’ll also be voting to get out of the EU. Much of the support for it in Wales seems to be wishful thinking, an act of faith rather like a religious belief. The reality neo-liberalism, warmongering and an anti-democratic disdain for nationhood. Wales has a faint hope of emerging as an independent nation from the UK, none at all from within the EU.

    Of course the EU camp will win the referendum but I’m consoled that greater forces than anything we have to offer will bring the whole corrupt ededifice down before long. Whether that can happen before NATO adventurism lands us in World War Three I’m not so sure.

    1. There will be many doing the same thing – voting for a party in which they have little faith, a) because there’s no alternative and b) in the hope of reminding the world that we still exist.

    1. dafis

      good luck to you, although I suspect that UKIP will do no more to improve the performance of the Assembly than the motley bunch already in residence. Amazing how the behaviours of pigs can always be modified by the smell/sight of a trough ! Read ART Davies’ latest zany idea on student funds – pay 50% of rents ! , another way of piling cash into landlords pockets. Just fiddling around with funds while doing nothing to break the downward spiral. Cynulliad needs to clear their collective heads, think LESS about spending (& fiddling funds into pet projects ) and start addressing Efficiency.

    2. Brychan

      Joe, you got almost 20% of the vote in Islwyn in the last election for the Westminster House, the highest Ukip vote in Wales. You recently called for Nathan Gill to resign as your leader in Wales.

      The Plaid leader is an AM and the unequivocal party policy spokeswoman.
      The leader of the LibDems is Wales is overlooked and ignored by her English bosses.
      The Labour Party treats their Welsh leader as ‘honorary Welshman’ as if a viceroy.

      Strangely, out of all the UK parties it’s only the leader of the Conservatives who has a command of ‘Welsh Affairs’, and has an arrangement so that even the Sec of State has to defer to their Welsh leader in such matters. A recent schism settled this matter.

      The leader of all other political parties in Wales is an AM elected to the Senedd. If Ukip does get an AM elected, who will be your ‘Welsh’ leader? Should it not be an AM? As you say, Nathan is a liability, and Farage, not even elected as an MP in England, is distant, ignorant and damaging.

      If Ukip does get an AM elected in May, to capitalise on this in Wales you will need to have a proper Welsh leader. Particularly in the run up to the June referendum. You need to have such a leader otherwise any ‘leave the EU’ will be shrouded as ‘anti-Welsh’ in sentiment, which no doubt other parties will portray (although ironically, not Plaid as DET has contradicted Leanne on this).

  7. Keith Parry

    You have been a Gaulist for many years. After the war Charles de Gaulle set up the Ressamblement de People Francais Party. A French nationalist Party of the right of centre..

    1. treforus

      de Gaulle vision of a free trade area of sovereign nation states from the Atlantic to the Urals was derided at the time. He now seems a prophet but was just seen as a difficult man in his lifetime. I shall be voting to leave as I don’t see a future for us as supplicants to Brussels.

      1. De Gaulle may have been a difficult man to deal with but much of this reputation is down to his Anglo-American detractors, who denigrate him because de Gaulle saw earlier than most that there were elements in the USA bent on controlling the world, and that in Europe their agent would be the UK – hence his objection to the UK joining what was then the Common Market.

        1. Myfanwy

          There were multiple attempts made on De Gaulle’s life, precisely for taking the stand, that you describe. If a similar figure existed today, with the same principles, it’s very likely, they would soon be silenced!

          1. This episode gives us another insight into de Gaulle’s character and thinking.

            When he returned to power in 1958 everyone assumed that he – the hero of the Free French during WWII – would hang on to Algeria where the French were engaged in a bitter war with Algerian nationalists. But he had already concluded that the days of empire were over, it was time to give the colonies independence. This led to a revolt by the Europeans in Algeria and the attempts on his life.

            It was the OAS that tried to kill de Gaulle. The OAS was made up those who opposed his policy of giving Algeria independence, the right wing in France, elements of the armed forces, and of course, the European settlers. Which is not to say that there wasn’t UK or US involvement, but I’m not aware of any.

            Though I’m sure that many in London and Washington would have been delighted if the OAS had got their man. Not least because de Gaulle had always been a thorn in the side of the ‘Anglo-Saxon Powers’ and in 1966 he pulled France out of NATO, which resulted in the HQ moving from Paris to Brussels.

            1. treforus

              de Gaulle took France out the unified command structure rather than NATO itself-they remain members to this day. But he also demanded the removal of all US troops from France which caused Dean Rusk to enquire whether those in the cemeteries were included. He really hated the Americans.
              As well as being thrown out of Canada for his “vive Quebec libre” speech, he attempted an anti British speech at a dinner during a visit to Ireland. It was said that an international incident was avoided by Jack Lynch switching his microphone off.

            2. His ‘Vive le Quebec libre’ speech was intended to remind French-Canadians that France had not forgotten them, and was well received by those it was aimed at. If it pissed off the Canadian federal government, the US government, and the UK government, then I doubt if that would have caused de Gaulle any sleepless nights.

              As for the Irish incident, I have my doubts about that.

  8. Myfanwy

    Jac, the UK has often been described as the 51st State of the USA, if the UK exits the EU, won’t that allegiance inevitably grow stronger and what will that mean for Wales and our future hopes for Independence?

    1. In many ways the UK is the 51st State of the USA, and this is why the US wants the UK to stay in the EU – to promote US interests. The UK outside of the EU is of less use to the USA and there will be less benefit from the US controlling the UK.

      1. Colin

        Which ties in nicely with Gwilym’s post above regarding the Rothchild Zionists who could well be reinforcing the “Special relationship” in order to exercise their will over the likes of David Cameron, for example yesterdays EU talks

        1. Big Gee

          It’s important to see the bigger picture, by that I mean the global picture & where it’s leading. The more support there is for ‘regional’ integration of nations the less our chances (and the chances of far bigger & more powerful nations) of clinging on to independent freedoms and rights.

          It is evident to a blind man with at least two neurons that there is a huge push now for a ‘New World Order’ (often described by the originators of the phrase as ‘Order Out of Chaos’ in Latin “Ordo ab Chao”, it is unsurprisingly the slogan of the 33rd degree of Freemasonry) – it is the phrase coined over and over by the puppets controlled by the ‘hidden hand’. The process is done in steps. Vandalise countries with autonomy and self rule that are outside the gang (cause chaos), as we’re seeing in the Middle east. Create situations where war can vastly change the demographic layout of countries, manufacture immigrant/ refugee waves into other countries & cultures and by so doing dilute the sense of sovereignty within the ‘regions’.

          World war is a huge leap forward in this regard, as we’ve witnessed twice in the 20th century, with border changes, the creation of newly named countries & regions, and the lumping together of nations under the dictatorial powers of the victors. A third world war would guarantee another gigantic leap towards the eventual goal, as the two big current sticking points are Russia & China – that the ‘hidden hand’ needs to manoeuvre out of the way. Thereafter a world government would be created (for our so called security), and a world army to protect the ‘New World Order’.

          Positive steps to thwart that scenario is to wake up the peoples of the world to the reality, and to stop them sleep walking into this pit, they are cuurrently stupified by the crap that is fed to them by the puppet media. Secondly the people need to dismantle what has already taken place – like for example- the formation of that big region called the EU (a contrived part of the hidden agenda). Only then can we start working on liberating and protecting our own little country and planning for it’s future. That’s why my tiny little vote will be to get out of the EU as soon as possible.

          It’s a time to see the big picture, rather than staring at our navels and putting energy into our own back yard problems. Focusing on just ourselves is like trying to paint the funnels on the Titanic as it’s sinking. When it goes down the funnels go down as well!

          With the advent of global communication via the Web, it is possible to foul up the plans of the ‘hidden hand’. It is for that reason that they are splitting a gut to shut down our freedoms on the Web. It needs a big surge of effort to open people’s eyes right now – the time is short. Leave it too long and we’ll all see ourselves landed in Eric Arthur Blair’s (pen name George Orwell) dystopian novel 1984.

          Why was it so prophetic? Because given his position by birthright he was party to the inner sanctum of the ‘hidden hand’ and basically spilt the beans on the hidden agenda that has been in motion for centuries. He was no prophet, just ‘in the know’. The accuracy of his writing is almost perfect. Once we arrive at that point it will be too late to do anything about it.

          Not familiar with what the ‘New World Order’ is abpout? Here’s some bedtime reading for you:

          http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/order_chaos/order_chaos.htm#CONTENTS

  9. I’ll be voting to stay in the EU. You just need a quick look at the Brexit crowd: Chris Grayling, Michael Gove, Ian Duncan Smith and UKIP to convince you to vote “Yes”

    1. As I argued in an earlier comment, things need to get worse before they can get better.

      Wales today is stuck in a comfort zone of subsidised poverty that still allows the untutored mob the luxuries of modern life: satellite TV, smart phone, holidays, booze, fags, drugs, tattoos, etc. Without the restraining influence of the EU the Tory hard-liners will, hopefully, go too far, people will start losing out on those things they’d taken for granted, and that will provoke a reaction.

      That will be our opportunity, because there’ll be no EU to blame, just the English connection, and politicians ‘up in London’. This is why the repulsiveness of those wanting to leave the EU is another reason for voting Out, not to stay in, as you suggest.

    2. Big Gee

      To the contrary apemyr. If you listened to what Jeremy Corbyn said this weekend about this EU fiasco you might think differently. He rightly pointed out in an interview that this has nothing to do with the UK or it’s citizens, it’s purely an exercise by Cameron to sort out his Tory party on the European issue. It’s about the Tory party European side-show circus, so you shouldn’t be influenced one way or another by which ones amongst the clowns vote which way.

      Use some other basis for your decision. Like for instance what was the original purpose of the EU? It was to create a ‘region’ for the promoters of ‘The New World Order’ an exercise in doing away or watering down the sovereignty of individual countries, their patriotism towards any specific country and the erosion of individual cultures. Anything else is just an exercise in smoke & mirrors misleadingly based on the economy, security and commerce.

  10. Anonymous

    Don’t doubt that voting to get out runs the risk of subservience to US interests but the EU by, to give just one example among many, sabotaging south stream has already shown the same subservience.

    Take TTIP, of course Cameron would be anxious to signup but like the poll tax it could be ditched in the face of popular discontent. The corporate friendly EU will also sign-up but it’s remote, anti-democratic structure seems to drain people of any will to fight back. At least we can kick the neo-liberals out if we are so minded, much harder in a 28 state EU many of whose politicians due to PR can never be shown the door.

    I belong to that tiny minority who actually want an independent Wales. I don’t let my dislike of London rule convince me of the merits of Brussels rule.

  11. Anonymous

    In the polls there is a clear difference between how the people Scotland view the EU and how the people of England and Wales view the EU. With the polls showing little difference between England and Wales. At the moment polls gather information on the age, gender, socio-economic group, voting intention and even ability to speak Welsh. However unlike the national census they do not ask those they question about their identity – do they identify themselves as Welsh, British, English etc.
    I suspect that if the polls in Wales did include questions on what nationality those questioned identify themselves as it would uncover a difference between the attitudes of those in Wales who identify themselves as Welsh compared to those in Wales who identify themselves as being English. On many issues including the EU.
    I think this likely difference is of sufficient interest that those commissioning polls must be deliberately avoiding investigating it.

    1. Big Gee

      Even with smoke being pumped up their arses on an hourly basis by the media, who conjoured up a false image of their true position, and Farage being the darling of any BBC programme you watched (like Question Time) – you could’t be blamed for imagining that they were about to get a man at No. 10. The true reality was revealed in the acid test ONE MP!

      In Cymru I believe that there will be a return to the norm – now that people have sobered up. The Valleys are very excitable sometimes and give the impression of a false dawn, based on a whimsical herd mentality that then cools off and reverts to type by the following election. Remember Plaid going hysterical over Geraint Davies being elected in the Rhondda?

      Come the Senedd election this year the bulk of the voters in the south will ensure another term for Labour. The English immigrants in mid Wales and the north may have a slight effect on the UKIP vote, but overall don’t expect any earthquakes.

      I still maintain that all people of voting age should be tested as to their competence to cast a vote & Cymru should have a citizen test to ensure that the only people allowed a vote on this side of the border should first be citizens of Cymru who have taken an oath to that effect.

      1. Daley Gleephart

        It’s the regional vote using the d’Hondt system that will benefit UKIP.
        Usually, Labour Wales says “Vote Labour in the Constituency, Vote Labour in the Region.” and that, in some regions, ensures that the Labour vote in the region is a wasted vote.
        Take the results of the last Assembly elections and South West Wales Region.
        Labour had the most votes in the South West Wales region but, because they had 7 constituency AMs elected, the Labour vote was divided by 8.

        1. Obviously, but I still think there’s a possibility they could get a seat or two in a five- or six-cornered contest.

          As for Labour’s exhortation to vote and vote again. Maybe they don’t understand the system.

  12. Brian

    Can’t get a fag paper between Welsh Labour and fellow socialists Plaid, propping up Carwyn will just about finish the nationalists off, that is if they can still be called nationalists. Most outspoken in the party seem to be English converts.

    UKIP may get a couple of list seats but nothing spectacular, all in all the Assembly elections will go unnoticed because nobody is interested and I don’t blame them, expect it to be the lowest turnout ever and I wouldn’t be surprised if the EU referendum has near double the turnout.

    Plaids economic policy is based on pointing the begging bowl at Brussels instead of London, Wales will never be independent till the Welsh embrace right wing economics and accept things must get much much worse first, this wont happen in your lifetime or mine and probably never because Wales isn’t very nationalist

  13. dafis

    Well it didn’t take long for the public school bully boys to fall out, Boris in the out corner and Dave in the In corner. Tragic that the MSM , indeed most channels see it in those terms. They should perhaps express it as Federal European forces trying to retain and extend slavery while secessionists want to secure freedoms ( sorry Jeff Davis, but I knew you’d be useful someday ! )

    Sad thing is that there are very strange bed fellows on both sides – like Dodgy Dave and Ms Sturgeon, plus Corbyn & Leanne as ballast , lined up against the likes of Boris, George G and N Falange.

    Who ever wins one thing is for certain Wales would be better off well away from either shower .

  14. Colin

    It will be very interesting to see how the Scottish “Yes” supporters vote in the referendum, it seems to me that their best interests would be served by voting out despite wanting to stay in to force a second split from the UK referendum

      1. Brychan

        That’s exactly what the SNP argue, because it’s true. Over half of the output of the Scottish fishery is sold to mainland Europe, and the shellfish product which makes up three quarters the catch by turnover is almost wholly sold to France and continental mainland. A Brexit will devastate the Scottish fishing industry. The idea that the government in London will negotiate a new trade deal to benefit Scotland is bollocks. Membership of the EU means that Scottish currently has unfettered access to the market where it makes most of its profits. London is the enemy of Scottish fishermen not their premium price customers, who speak French.

  15. Anonymous

    Really enjoyed this post, dont know what to think but see a lot of sense in what you say about Wales’ dependency on handouts

    1. There is a terrifying absence of ambition in Welsh politics. ‘Success’ seems to be gauged by who can get the biggest handouts. The thought of creating wealth here in Wales so that we won’t need handouts seems to terrify these bastards.

  16. A

    The expected high UKIP vote in the valleys isn’t a symptom of Britishness, it’s an indictment of Plaid’s failure.

    1. That’s what I’ve always argued. People – Welsh people – pissed off with Labour find Ukip more attractive than Plaid. No other interpretation. Hell of an indictment of Plaid Cymru.

      1. Anonymous

        Neil Hamilton standing as UKIP’s candidate in West Wales should ensure tV coverage for the “celeb” which should include his England football song (as featured on a Youtube clip on National left blog). It would be a real turn off for Welsh identifying potential UKIP voters in the valleys.

  17. About Me: I am a History Student at Aber from London (but with a Welsh Great-Grandmother) and am learning Welsh in my spare time. I have long had an interest in languages, and as a young boy was very excited that foreign languages (ie not English) were spoken in these islands. I have long since had an interest in Welsh and other celtic languages. Having Visited Y Felinheli near Caernarfon many new years during my childhood, I always heard Welsh being spoken by children and in the street, but when in Aber I was surprised at how little there was. I then found out about Cymuned and colonisation in the Fro Gymraeg, and as an Englishman, I sympathize with Cymuned and don’t like colonisation but understand that Plaid Cymru want to be politically correct.

    Anyway, a few Questions, if I may:
    1) What affect would a Brexit have on the survival of the Welsh Language in places like Ceredigion and Gwynedd? What will happen when all those English colonists in the Costa-Del-Don’t-Learn-Spanish are kicked out of Spain and to a lesser extent France? What if, struggling with house prices in England, they like the look of Blaenau Ffestiniog? That would be the death knell of Heartland Welsh, wouldn’t it?

    2) What other affects may Brexit have on the Fro and on Welsh?

    3)What will happen to Plaid Cymru in a Brexit scenario?

    4) Will Party politics in England-and-Wales as a whole change significantly?

    4) How will Brexit affect the status of English both in the EU in general and as a second language/Lingua Franca on the continent?

    5) How will Brexit change the way the English view themselves?

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