It might seem odd for me to be writing about elections to the EU parliament 8 years after Wales voted to leave the EU, but I’m doing so because these results are important, and will have repercussions for us.
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THE BIG PICTURE
There was a swing to the right across the continent, but of course the media found it almost impossible to engage in honest reporting. There were crude references to the 1930s, or even suggestions that the swing was largely due to a low turnout.
Watching the exit polls and the early declarations on Sunday night, on the BBC, CNN, and Euronews, I was struck by the way commentators used terms like ‘centre’, ‘centre left’, ‘socialists’, even ‘green-left’, but never ‘far left’.
While on the other side there’s rarely a ‘right of centre’; that side of the spectrum begins with ‘right wing’ or ‘far right’, even ‘hard right’. (Yeah, well hard!)
There’s also the ‘populist right’, whatever that means. (Answers on a post card.)
I got the impression that some of those misinforming me would have liked to slip into Antifa black bloc and yell, ‘Nazi!’, ‘fascist!‘, and ‘transphobe!’ Displaying commendable restraint the Beeb limited itself to images like this, linking Austria with Germany (Anschluss), and showing raised arms. (Nudge, nudge.)
When it came to Gorgeous Geert Wilders, there was an early attempt (Netherlands voted on Thursday) to suggest that his Party for Freedom PVV had somehow tanked, even though projections had it increasing its representation in Brussels from 0 to 7 MEPs. (As it turned out, the PVV won 6 seats.)
Done by making the rather silly comparison with the national election last November, which the PVV won.
The talking heads were almost united in bemoaning the swing to the right, but chose to focus on the personalities, or the possible line-up in the EU parliament, rather than address the reasons for the upheaval they were witnessing.
Those reasons being unsustainable levels of immigration and the hardships being imposed by the completely unnecessary drive to net zero.
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THE VIEW FROM THE EAST
The picture across the continent is too big and complicated for me to look at every country. What’s more, the picture in the east, from Finland to Romania, is coloured to a greater or lesser degree by the war in Ukraine, and attitudes towards Russia.
For Finland was ruled by Russia until 1917, then Stalin invaded in 1940. Anti-Russian sentiment is widespread in the Baltic States. Poland borders Ukraine. Hungary tries to play the honest broker. Many Romanians fear Russia will push west, towards and beyond Odessa, to link with Transdnistria, where there is already a Russian military presence.
So I’m going to focus on Central and Western Europe. Where results are marginally easier to read, and then, due to the size and influence of some of the countries involved, the consequences will be felt beyond those countries’ borders.
I should also point out that in a number of countries the EU elections were held on the same day as local or national elections. Which can confuse the picture, and also influence the result of the EU poll.
I’m going to focus on France, but I’ll also zip around a few other countries; including of course, Germany. Once the economic and industrial powerhouse of the continent . . . but then came net zero.
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LA BELLE FRANCE
As I’ve suggested by focusing on France, the big story of the elections was that Macron got his ass kicked by Marine Le Pen’s protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.
Marine Le Pen fought hard for National Rally (NR) to shake off the worst of her father’s legacy, but no matter what did she was stuck with the name. Bardella, of mainly Italian background, but also having an Algerian great-grandfather, has no such problem.
Also in the mix, almost unnoticed, was the Reconquête! party. It linked with a few others to fight under the La France fière banner, got 5.47% and 5 seats. Founded as recently as 2021 by Éric Zemmour, the son of Arabic-speaking Berber Jews from Algeria.
I mention this because Zemmour is usually said to be further to the right, and more hostile to Islam, than NR.
The map below shows that NR came top of the poll in every départment other than Paris. A reminder of a problem found across the West – the disproportionate influence of a metropolitan elite.
By which I mean, politicians, the media, self-styled ‘progressives’, academics, countless thousands in NGOs and similar gangs living off the public purse.
In response to his drubbing Macron has gone for broke and called a parliamentary election. His job won’t be up for grabs, but he’ll be there to undermine his party, and the liberal left more generally, by reminding French voters he’s now a lame duck president.
An example of a weak man acting tough. And it invariably ends in disaster.
Something that cost Macron and his party votes was his call for what sounded very much like war with Russia. This Spectator article from March 10 suggests Macron made his remarks about intervention in Ukraine to combat NR’s 10% lead in opinion polls ahead of the EU elections.
This cunning plan was so successful that the eventual gap was 16.2%, with NR getting 31.4%, to Macron’s Renaissance getting just 15.2%.
The plan to give Putin what for was not well received by his neighbours and allies. (‘”Follow me!“, he cried, sabre held aloft . . . then looked back and saw he was alone.’)
Incidentally, the French Communist party got just 2.36%. Now if that don’t warm the cockles of your crypto fascist heart, missus, then I don’t know what will.
Back in the days of Gladio there was a real worry, in London and Washington, that France (and Italy) might actually elect a communist government. How times change!
Macron is now urging the French to ‘say no to extremes’ in the elections at the end of the month. Rejecting his brand of banality, mediocrity, and incompetence, does not make people extremists.
Wise up, mon ami – your bateau has sailed.
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A ROUNDUP
Next door to France, in Belgium, there were also national and regional elections. With a turnout of 87.42% for the federal election. The big winners in the regional elections for Flanders were Eurosceptic Flemish nationalist parties, though Vlaams Belang – the ‘separatist’ party – did not perform as well as expected.
On the national stage, the same two parties topped the poll. Other, mainly francophone parties, trotted in behind them.
As in France, the big loser was the party running the national government, but unlike France, there was also a national election, which the ruling coalition lost. This resulted in prime minister Alexander De Croo handing in his notice to the king. But he’ll hang on until a new coalition is formed.
Belgian politics is ‘messy’. A small country divided by language and regional rivalries, with its capital, Brussels, also serving as the EU capital.
In Italy, there was no big surprise. Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, heading the national government coalition, came top. And although the usual suspects call her the ‘heiress to Mussolini’ and a neo-fascist, I fear she may be little more than a political chancer with a real talent for self-promotion.
An example would be her visit to Albania just before the EU elections, to inspect the centres where would-be migrants will be held while Italy vets their claims. This Rwanda-style deal seems to be pissing off many of the comrades, so it has that in its favour.
And those whose applications fail will presumably be recruited by Albanian gangs and end up over here tending cannabis factories. Everyone’s a winner!
We can’t ignore Germany, the largest member of the bloc in terms of population and just about everything else. As in other countries we’ve looked at, the results were a disaster for the party or parties running the national government.
Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, who head up the ruling coalition, came a poor third with just 13.9%. The big winners were the Christian Democrats (with their Bavarian ally) on 30%, and to the right of them, the AfD on 15.9%. The Greens came fourth with 11.9%.
Catching up on reports as I wrote this I came across something that indicates how the political focus has shifted to the right.
Associated Press is one of the most reliably Globalist mouthpieces. A joke as a news organisation, it can be relied on to spout the Davos-UN line on climate, ‘refugees’, etc.
Normally, AP would be horrified by advances for conservatives, but here it seems to be taking consolation from the success of the German Christian Democrats.
Scholz says he won’t be calling an election, but the decision may be out of his hands.
The BBC found similar comfort in a ‘resurgent’ centre-left in France. Mmm. I’m sure there was a Straw Clutchers party standing somewhere.
Next door to Germany, in Austria, it was a similar story. A big surge in support for one of those parties that puts leftists into Wolfie Smith mode.
We’ve looked at France, Germany and Italy, so the other large country in the west is Spain. There, it was a familiar tale, though with a strange twist.
I quote from the Reuters article I just linked to: ‘Alvise Perez, a far-right social media influencer running against what he describes as universal corruption, managed to obtain three seats with a campaign mostly conducted through the messaging app Telegram.’
Here’s a link that might tell you more about Señor Perez, who dedicated his victory to an 81-year-old man who’d been sent to prison for shooting a burglar.
I’d hoped to bring results from Ireland, where there were also local elections. But counting has been slow, and when I was finishing off this article yesterday evening the results for the Euro elections had still not been finalised.
I would also have liked to tell you about the local elections, but that would have meant a lot of digging. The insurgent parties and individuals I’ve mentioned here in recent times are probably included among Independents and Others.
It’s worth noting that Sinn Féin was topping every poll until it became clear that it supports open borders, which hurts its working class base more than other groups.
But I can tell you that John Moran is the new mayor of Limerick.
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YOUNG EUROPE
In order to explain a few more things about Poland, France, the wider picture, and the standard of BBC journalism, I’m using the two clips below.
Polish premier Tusk is a Globalist and Permanent War party puppet, and therefore a favourite with the BBC.
But Auntie disapproves of his rival, the Law and Justice party, so it has to be labelled ‘right wing’. But when there’s another party, even more likely to bring on an attack of the vapours, such as the Confederation party, it must be branded ‘far-right’.
But note, the panel also reveals that this party from beyond the Pale is the most popular among 18-29- year-olds. While the other panel tells us that in France 18-24-year-olds have swung behind Le Pen’s RN.
Across Europe young people are rejecting the parties of the centre, and the greens, to move left and right, with the right gaining far more than the left.
This swing to the right among the young is significant. For we’re not dealing with the ‘gammons’ so beloved of leftists and their media, those sad caricatures nostalgic for a time when white families appeared in TV adverts.
This support from young people is rooted in events of the here and the now. And that’s why I find it so encouraging.
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FINAL THOUGHTS
I see these European elections as a blow for the Globalists. They also see it, and they’ve been quick to respond. The head of the UN’s refugee agency, Filippo Grandi, ‘criticised the politicisation of migration in European elections‘.
Listen, pal, you and your Globalist mates, the politicians you’ve won over, the European Commission, the media you control . . . you all politicised the issue long ago, by doing away with border controls, and by demonising those who oppose your plans.
You are in no position therefore to criticise decent people who’ve had enough of your behaviour. The fightback is underway, both in Europe and the USA.
For the day after he took office, your puppet Biden opened the southern border. Now that his handlers finally realise how unpopular a decision that has proven to be, and with a presidential election looming, they’re back-pedalling like crazy.
Let’s also remember the damage being inflicted by the climate scam. It’s destroying the Welsh countryside, making everything more expensive, while personal freedom suffers from the restrictions it demands.
Which is why, on July 4, I expect a rag-bag of candidates, some of them off the wall, one or two sought by various constabularies; with a back-of-a-fag-packet ‘manifesto’, and a leader used by leftist yobs for target practice, to do rather well.
Because that’s where we are. Think well on’t.
♦ end ♦
© Royston Jones 2024
I would love for you to return to the topic you have made in the past on the subject of Cwmpas and Gwyr Community Land Trust. A post I made on Protect the Bishopston Green Wedge involving National Community Land Trust Network and Cwmpas is relevant.
Will look at it.
Hey Jac, just watched a Doc. I would recommend The Grab.
Had a quick look at the trailer. Will definitely watch it when I get a chance.
Can’t seem to get hold of the actual film. Tried YT, Prime. Where and how do I get it?
mass media and all sorts of easily offended chatterboxes are getting very worked up about the alleged impact of Reform. Silly sacks should have sussed that despite his general shallowness old Farage is a master at drawing attention to himself, stimulating responses both positive and negative and is head and shoulders above the timid correctness of the other grey men and women who are spouting bollox on behalf of the mainstream deadleg parties.
Reform may have a big impact in England by further diluting the depressed Tory vote and may pinch odd seats that Labour might have presumed would swing back to them. I don’t think Reform will take seats in Wales but may damage other parties’ hopes of making gains or defending what they already have. I don’t particularly like Farage but along with Galloway (any other mould- breakers ?) he serves to upset the presumptuous equilibrium of the Established parties and that includes our hapless Plaid.
The persistent use of the “far-right” adjective in connection with anything remotely off centre is now beyond irritating. Earlier this week I was listening to a Welsh radio broadcast hearing a Welsh academic discuss EU elections. It was refreshing to hear the Welsh language being spoken without any of the fashionable urban affectations ( using English or mangling Welsh words) but my elation got well and truly deflated by the guy’s persistent use of “dde eithafol” almost every other phrase. So academia combines with media to perpetuate a myth without ever venturing to the other end of the spectrum and branding its inhabitants as far left or loony left or whatever might come in handy. Abominable, and I speak as a mildly “left” bloke with a hefty dash of traditional identity concerns.
As for our UK elections well what a shambles. Lying is now openly the game to play. These exaggerate claims and promises will fuck any and all of those UK uniparties that have tried to bore us on TV every night. I’ve watched segments but always find something better on another channel, like old westerns or anything that is openly declaring itself as fiction. Trouble is that Starmer will not be properly held to account 12 – 18 months down the track when the whole shambles get derailed. Any of his herd who wants to get back into EU will only want it for their career prospects as the shift in the mix of EU Parliament is hardly good for the sensitive palates of UK’s Remainer stock.
On the plus side, Dafis, after roughly two years of Starmer, Wales goes to the polls in the Senedd election. Worth looking forward to. I wonder who’ll be leading Labour?
I couldn’t give a shit who leads Labour as they are all variations of a sloppy lazy wasteful theme, hence my suspicion, even belief that we are unlikely to see a situation where all parties will have tried a lot harder to wake the sleepy electorate up by then. One senses that none of the Unionist parties are at all motivated to stimulate anything resembling “thought” among the public and therein lies a big part of the problem. The fact that Y Senedd now resembles a third rate comedy show does nothing to attract interest and reinforces the fallacy that everything is really run from Westminster/ Whitehall. Maybe the purse strings are held there and that is an inhibitor, but our local dimwits are content to operate that way despite their protests to the contrary. If Gwlad and Propel could gain real traction then we might see the cats scattering loads of pigeons. Getting the ball rolling is the big challenge.
The political geography of Belgium is messy too. The Brussels Capital Region is majority French-speaking (but officially bilingual), is an enclave of Dutch-speaking Flanders, and is constiutionally shared between the two main language communities. The border with the Netherlands is like a Jackson Pollock painting. Wowzers!
Still if you think about it, the arrangement pisses all over the notion of the UK being truly a team effort, and not just England and her Dominions. Imagine the furore if someone had the gall to propose London constitutionally no longer being an English city, instead ‘belonging to us all’!
Belgium is an artificial construct, dreamed up after Napoleon’s defeat. Flanders was certainly an established entity, and so, to a lesser degree, were the francophone areas, but putting them together made no sense. I believe the reason given was religion, with Flanders considered to be the Catholic part of the largely protestant Netherlands.
Brussels has become increasingly French in language since it became the focus of the EU. Foreigners moving there, given the choice, will always learn French rather than Flemish.
There will obviously be an element of self-perpetuation / chicken and egg to the EU-driven increase in French speaking in Brussels, but I did just see on Wikipedia that the transition from Flemish to French took place in the 19th century.
After Belgium was created. The francophone element in the population, thanks to the French connection, achieved a dominant position. Many Frenchmen became officers in the Belgian army. For a similar reason, the language of the Belgian colonies was French. There were persistent rumours among the Flemish-speaking population that Flemish recruits to the army were whipped, or even shot, for ‘disobeying’ orders given in French, which of course they couldn’t understand.
Reminds me of the Protestant Ascendancy in Ireland, and no doubt comparable stories have played out many times throughout history, ever since the existence of distinct cultures and societies, and power and influence disparities between them.
The Protestant Ascendancy should more correctly be called the Anglican Ascendancy, for not only did it exclude the Catholic majority, it also excluded a sizeable minority – especially in the north – of Scottish Presbyterians. Which explains how they could come together in the United Irishmen and the Rising of 1798.
Another group excluded were the ‘Old English’, the descendants of the Anglo-Cambro-Normans. Those with Fitz in the name, and others. For during the time of the Reformation they remained Catholic. Yet despite centuries of intermarriage with the Catholic Irish many of this group still protested that they weren’t really Irish. Not Irish Irish. Not Gaelic Irish. Trouble was, nobody could really see any difference.
Even the concept of ‘Celticness’ is I’m sure hotly debated to this day. I thought the ‘Old English’ became “More Irish than the Irish themselves”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/More_Irish_than_the_Irish_themselves? Beyond the Pale, that is!
Don’t forget Poland and Lithuania also border Russia itself, the Kaliningrad exclave.
Ah! Königsberg.
I think it is easy for people in the UK to misunderstand what is happening in the EU.
Firstly the EU, In terms of population, is huge. It has about 440 million people – almost the same as the populations of the USA (330m) and the Russian Federation ( 150m ) combined.
The best projections that I can find predict only around 25% of MEPs in the new EU parliament will be what the English press label as ‘far-right’, and the individual groups are hopelessly divided on policy. Considering them agglomerated as a single entity is very misleading.
Secondly most EU countries have a plethora of parties. The tendency has been that the right unite under a single banner, while the centre and left remain fragmented.
France, for example, has six main political groups, but it also has about thirty “Other nationwide represented parties” Nope – that’s not a typo – it’s 30.
This is why, in the EU elections in France, the Rassemblement National got the most MEP’s of any party – but only got around 30% of the vote. Also the rise of RN has been largely fueled by the decline of another right wing party, namely Les Républicans.
Also, unlike the UK, most right wing parties have no intention of trying to leave the EU. Even Marine Le Pen has admitted this was a mistaken idea. This is one reason why young people no longer find the right wing parties in Europe unacceptable. The right has moved to the left to accomodate them.
The rise of the right therefore is not as dramatic as the English media would have you believe.
Coming back to the question of labelling by the media, the ‘far-right’ in France isn’t what the English press would call the far-right in the UK. It’s basically a resurgence of Gaulle-ism.
Anti Americanism is on the rise in most of Europe. The concept of US hegemony and a bipolar world order is being challenged ( à la Charles de Gaulle ). The war in Ukraine has led to great disillusionment with the concept of ‘The West’ led by the nose by the USA. The EU is on the move, but not in the direction the English media tells you.
Ifor! I was looking forward to your contribution. As usual, I shall try to address your concerns in the order you raised them.
You begin: ‘I think it is easy for people in the UK to misunderstand what is happening in the EU.’ Is that a dig at me!
Your third paragraph seems to miss the point of what I was trying to say. I wasn’t doing a head-count of ‘right wing’, ‘far-right’ MEPS. I was discussing a trend, particularly among younger voters. Which allows me to jump to your sixth paragraph. Some younger voters may be attracted by the reduced hostility towards the EU, but I suggest there’s another reason.
The hostility towards unlimited and unrestricted immigration may be dismissed as ‘racism’ by the BBC and the Guardian, but it’s more nuanced. These ‘migrants’ have to be housed, so who loses out – younger people looking for their first home. This lies at the root of the unrest in Ireland. A country with a housing crisis is accepting and housing migrants from around the world. I’m not denying that there is an element of racism in the mix, or that a new kind of ethnic nationalism might be emerging, but the issue both have been gifted is housing.
Economic and other pressures are also more likely to be felt by the young. People of our age will have paid off our mortgages, maybe have a bit stashed away, and can get by. But my children and grandchildren are not having it so easy. One reason is the economic impact of net zero. This helps explain the drift from the greens.
Your final paragraph is interesting, and thought provoking. There is a certain anti-Americanism on the rise, and those responsible for it are the dangerous bastards I regularly identify on this blog. Many people now understand that the US is something of a sham democracy, because since JFK was assassinated, both parties have followed the orders and implemented the policies of the deep state.
The deep state that must have ‘enemies’, that believes regime change is a legitimate element of foreign policy, that wants permanent war. Run by people like that insane fucker Victoria Nuland who was in Kiev organising the 2014 coup. And whether you like it or not, it explains why Trump is under constant attack.
This growing realisation of there being something dark and worrying at the heart of the US administration helps explain the anti-Americanism you refer to. I don’t believe it’s directed at the people. And the decline of the bi-polar world order. Which many on the left will regard as a positive thing and a progressive move. I see it differently. For Russia has been forced to keep unsuitable company, outside of the European fold.
I say that because when communism collapsed and the Russians became free, it would have been wonderful to see some sort of unity across the continent by bringing Russia back into the European family of nations. But those bastards I’ve just referred to couldn’t let that happen, they lied about NATO expansion and just about everything else.
I may have voted for Brexit, but I remain a European. And that’s why I support the right of Europeans to defend themselves and their identities. Free from communism, US imperialism, and Globalist schemers.
The General would have told them all where to go!
It’s a simple concept really. Basically all bar one (Belarus) of Russia’s former Soviet Republics and satellite states, have oriented away from it within 35 years. On one level it’s a national humiliation probably comparable to Germany’s after WW1. On another, it’s cornering an animal, when there’s basically almost a complete arc of NATO states along the stretch of border nearest to its most population-dense regions.
NATO works hand in hand with the EU. The prospect of EU membership and oodles of free money is a big attraction to turn your back on Russia. Study how the promise of EU membership influenced events in Ukraine.
“This growing realisation of there being something dark and worrying at the heart of the US administration helps explain the anti-Americanism you refer to. I don’t believe it’s directed at the people….” Interesting discussion, and I had to unpick this bit. We’re talking about attitudes to Trump, aren’t we? The elite in the UK and EU are pro-Biden/Democrat/war in Ukraine, and anti-Trump without troubling to work out why. Many people in the UK are pro-Trump because Trump is for his own people and for his own country. They’d like our leaders to be the same. I don’t think that many in Europe see that the present US Leaders and the EU and UK leaders are being played by the US Deep State. Eisenhower and JFK were both aware of the dangers of the Deep State,, but its not widespread. Poor old Wales is of course lost in all this.
Your concluding sentence is the most important. You say earlier that Trump is for his own people and …country. Our UK leadership ( if you can call it that) could be described as that too if you limited the people to the Anglo Brit demographic. Sadly the concept of “country” has been distorted on these islands because that Anglo Brit demographic has spread to all corners like a virus taking with it the damaging superiority complex of the nouveau colonialist. The best you’ll get out of them is a patronising attitude which yields next to nothing. Add to that the sickening presence of compliant Uncle Dai’s, Twm’s et al and you can see that even a Trump kind of leadership in the UK would be of next to no benefit to us here in Wales.
Indeed Wales is lost and shaping up for 5 more years of being abused and scorned.
An interesting manifesto from the Reconquête! party. A complete ban on wind farms. Goodness.
I must confess . . . I haven’t read it. But now I might.
That’s more like it. And to add spice here in Wales we should also pledge to nationalise all wind energy installations owned by foreign carpetbaggers into local community cooperatives. No Bay fingers in those pies.