US Elections, Observations And Hopes

This is my personal take on what happened in the USA last week. I’ll give some thought to the curious electoral system. The trajectory I hope to see from now on. And I’ll conclude by briefly considering the effects Trump’s victory might have on the wider world.

THEN AND NOW

I woke around six o’clock last Wednesday morning, though I’m not sure why.

Anyway, I switched on the TV, expecting to see talking heads discussing the turnout in Wisconsin, and whether the result offered a bright new dawn for transgender Latino birthing persons, but I could tell from the faces and demeanour of the respected and impartial presenters that Trump had won.

I was amazed at how quickly the result had become known.

To understand my surprise, we need to go back four years to the events of 2020. When ballots were still arriving days after the polls closed, often in the middle of the night and from out-of-state locations.

Which leads us to the consideration of ID; whether someone turning up at a polling station should establish their identity before being allowed to vote. As we do in Wales.

For reasons I cannot fathom, Democrats are opposed to demanding ID. California even went so far as to make it illegal to ask for ID! Republicans say it should be mandatory.

It’s also being reported that Harris won all the states where voter ID is not required . . . but only those states. Not that I’m suggesting anything, you understand.

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But just think what could happen.

An unknown man goes to vote . . . then comes back 5 minutes later, to vote again. The people manning the polling station say, ‘Hang on, you voted 5 minutes ago’. Mystery man responds, ‘No I didn’t – and you can’t prove I did!’.

What went right for Trump this time? Well . . .

There’s no doubt that in 2020 there were ‘irregularities’, and these favoured the Democrats. I say that because they all seemed to happen in Democrat-controlled cities, and swing states. More on this later.

Harris getting over 10 million votes less than Biden won in 2020 takes some explaining. Seeing as there were more voters this time. And especially as this was the election to save civilisation from the Nazi hordes awaiting their cue from Donald J Trump.

And then there were the countless celebrity endorsements for Harris. Did these count for nothing? How could out-of-work coal miners in West Virginia not heed the advice of Leonardo DiCaprio?

Though it’s said Oprah Winfrey was paid £1m or more to have Harris on her show!

Earlier this year, who among you was not moved by Robert de Niro’s performance outside the New York City courthouse where Trump was being tried? The renowned thesp turned up surrounded by more heavies than in any of his movies.

Speaking in NYC De Niro says of Trump, “He doesn’t belong in my city”. Trump was born there. But when Trump deports criminals who sneaked into the USA De Niro and other luvvies will demand they be allowed to stay because they ‘belong’. Click to open enlarged in separate tab

And then there was the civil fraud case brought by Soros-funded New York Attorney General Letitia James against Trump for over-valuing his assets in order to get a bank loan.

This was a civil action, not a criminal case. For the bank involved, Deutsche Bank, had made no complaint!

This being New York, Trump was of course found guilty. James’s co-conspirator, the goblinesque Judge Arthur Engoron, slapped a fine of $454.2m on Trump. And even wanted him barred from doing business in New York.

But things soon unravelled for James, Engoron, and the Democratic Party.

For in its testimony, Deutsche Bank said, ‘No problemo, everybody exaggerates their wealth, or the value of their assets, to get a loan.

Managing director David Williams said the bankers viewed clients’ reports of their net worth as “subjective or subject to estimates” and took its own view of such financial statements.

This was a squalid business, even for NYC, so blatantly political. And the Appellate Court agreed.

Conclusions:

When it became clear Trump had won those who were supposed to be impartial made no effort to hide their bias. Telling us that any vestige of credibility the legacy media might have had is gone. Forever.

After cheating their way to victory in 2020, partly thanks to the fortuitous and wholly unexpected arrival of Covid, the deep state Democrats were unable to do the same again.

The average American resents being told to make sacrifices by luvvies who use private jets to fly to awards ceremonies where they tell each other how virtuous and superior they are.

Like other people, Americans want a legal system that is above politics and personalities; a system that administers justice blindly. Not a system corrupted by an evil old man.

And most Americans, of all ethnicities, reject ‘women with penises’, pronouns, anti-white racism, and all the other Woke nonsense.

When you consider the media bias, the amount by which the Harris campaign out-spent Trump’s, the celebrity endorsements, Trump being called Hitler, and everything else the president-elect had to put up with, you realise that with a level playing-field the margin of victory would have been huge.

That should be a sobering thought for leftists, liberals, the media, and their Globalist manipulators.

THE LONG SHADOW OF TAMMANY HALL

A message we heard over and over again from the media was that Trump is ‘divisive’. But which politician isn’t? And yet, when we look at the electoral map, we see the real divide in the USA.

At its simplest, it’s between urban and rural.

On the one side, the major cities, with their ghettoes and immigrant communities, their white liberal suburbs. On the other, the rest of the country.

The cities have an enormous effect on how the states vote, in ways that skew results and disenfranchise large areas. The map below shows how the states voted on November 5.

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I want to draw your attention to a few examples of what I’ve just described.

Take Illinois, where Harris – with 93.6% of the vote counted by Nov 13 – won with some 54% of the vote. The Chicago metropolitan area deciding how the state voted. Here’s a map of Illinois by county.

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This pattern is replicated across the country. Go back to the map of the states and see that Colorado went for Harris thanks to the city of Denver. In Minnesota it was Minneapolis-St Paul. But perhaps the most egregious example is found in Virginia.

In the western counties of the state, as you head up into the Appalachians, Trump polled 80 – 85% of the vote, but it was all decided in the north east, in the suburban overspill of Washington DC. Many of those who voted for Harris here are working for bloated or even unnecessary federal agencies.

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And of course, many if not most of those living in this suburban overspill were not born in Virginia. Which means they helped outvote native Virginians.

Something similar obtains on the other side of DC, in Maryland, where suburban sprawl, and the city of Baltimore, helped the Democrats easily outvote the eastern side of that small state.

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Collectively, DC and these counties in Virginia and Maryland make up the Washington metropolitan area. A conurbation that has grown apace with the reach of the federal government.

I believe the only exceptions to this winner takes all system are Maine (3 – 1 Harris) and Nebraska (4 – 1 Trump).

So why do the Democrats exercise such a stranglehold on the major cities?

Go back far enough and you come to Tammany Hall, “a blend of charity and patronage”, that delivered the vote for the Democratic Party in New York City.

The Democrats controlled the major cities through appealing to immigrant groups, organised labour, and the increasing black vote coming up from the South. In return for those votes it could arrange jobs, contracts, housing, and other benefits.

The ‘bosses’ could deliver the vote. In Boston, one of the most powerful was John Francis ‘Honey Fitz’ Fitzgerald, grandfather of president John Fitzgerald Kennedy.

There was, perhaps inevitably, an overlap with organised crime. And when JFK won the 1960 election, with the slimmest-ever majority, the Chicago Outfit felt they’d made a big contribution.

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Tammany Hall may be gone, and the power of the Mafia is diminished, but the Democratic Party still controls the cities through that “combination of charity and patronage“. And still delivers the vote.

In addition to the core of each city there are the suburbs to consider. Here we find the business class, the professionals, and many of those running the agencies, funded by DC, the state, or the city, providing the goodies that keep the citizens voting Democrat.

Though it’s questionable if inner-city neighbourhoods see any tangible and lasting benefits from these arrangements.

Welsh readers might see a valid comparison between US inner cities and the Valleys, the latter abandoned and decaying, but still voting Labour. But with the real beneficiaries of this system being the chisellers of Corruption Bay, found in the nicer suburbs of Cardiff, out in the Vale, or even Abergavennyshire.

It’s a stranglehold that’s almost impossible to break. Because without political power the Republicans can’t promise the homes, or the jobs, or any benefits to woo voters. With minorities urged by their leaders to regard the party with suspicion. ‘Leaders’ who are often on the Democratic Party payroll, or otherwise catered for.

Which brings me to my final consideration in the urban-rural split.

Those who live outside of the cities, those areas that voted 70%, 80%, or more, for Donald Trump, especially in the South, the Mid West, and the Northern Plains, will differ in many ways from city-dwellers.

Yes, they’re far more likely to be white, but so are the suburbs, which is why it would be wrong to focus too much on race. The difference is that those out in the sticks are more likely to own their own home, and land; are more likely to be self-employed, and self-sufficient; and will be suspicious of government, especially the federal government.

The hicks are also far more likely to (legally) own guns. But we won’t go there.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not arguing against one person one vote. I fully support all US citizens, who can prove their identity, being given a numbered paper ballot on the day of the election, at the polling station, so they can cast their vote(s).

Does anyone object to that? And if so, why?

LOOKING AHEAD

We need here to avoid another over-simplification, that between left and right. Though I know I use these terms myself, so let me explain why, and why they’re misleading.

The struggle today is not really between right and left.

On the one hand we have those who want to tell us what we’re allowed to eat, what we can drive (also how far and at what speed), what we must believe, who our friends are, and who we must hate.

The UN’s 2030 Agenda.

They do it by hypnotising us with engineered crises / threats and while we’re fixated on the swinging pocket-watch they take our money, property, and personal freedoms.

On the other side, are those who see the threat and are prepared to resist it. Mainly, but no longer exclusively, from the political right.

I condemn the left for buying into the Globalist agenda. Most socialists and liberals because they see no further than Wokeism, taking childish enjoyment from ‘bourgeois’ angst; but for the hard-core, Globalism is a replacement Soviet Union in the old ambition to bring down the West.

And while the Globalists may be planning corporate colonialism in Africa and elsewhere, their primary targets are Europe and North America. Which is why Trump’s victory is important to us, because its effects will not be limited to the USA.

The president-elect is known to be sceptical of the EU, wary of NATO, and suspicious of the regime in Ukraine. He’s promised to reject net zero, regarding the ‘climate crisis’ as a ‘threat’ no more real than Russia, both dreamed up to promote the Globalist agenda.

But it takes more than the left to push forward the agenda.

Globalism, the deep state, the military-industrial complex, call it what you will, is supported and defended, its aims advanced, by a professional political class, and a huge bureaucracy, focused on Washington DC.

This vast apparatus is the target for the incoming Trump administration.

The man given the job of bringing down this monster is Elon Musk, who made Twitter / X more efficient, popular, and profitable, after sacking some 90% of the staff.

His deputy is former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who spelt it out only yesterday.

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The only ones who’ll object to this cull of the bureaucracy will be those who benefit from it. Those who work in these non-jobs, and those who gain politically or materially from them.

Reducing the federal budget, cutting aid to Ukraine, the UN, and other drains, making the US self-sufficient in energy, will reduce taxes and bring down prices across the board.

It must be done, not just because the American people are hurting, but because the USA may be broke. Forbes didn’t come straight out and say it, but the headline to this piece in May leaves little doubt . . . of the problem, and the cause.

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If you really want to scare yourself, just think: ‘Now, those who are bankrupting the federal government, and by extension, the USA, are controlled by the Globalists. So do the Globalists want to bankrupt the USA?’

Damn right they do. And the same applies to Europe.

The Globalists have created the monsters that can only be pacified with massive and expensive sacrifices designed to bankrupt individuals, nations, continents.

Having engineered the collapse, the Globalists will then step in with their solutions.

It’s how Hitler did it. Send out the Brownshirts to bloody the streets brawling with socialists and communists – then promise to bring law and order back to those same streets. Take power by promising to solve the problem you’ve created.

Welcome to the world of Universal Basic Income (UBI), Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC); which will mean an end to democracy, freedom of speech, and individual economic autonomy.

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You’re now a serf, because you opened the door to authoritarianism promising to solve non-existent problems and fight imaginary enemies.

OVER HERE

What happens in the USA always impacts on the rest of the world because of that country’s economic strength, military power, and cultural influence. Which is why the new administration taking control in January will impact on us all.

If Trump carries out his promises, on dumping net zero, cutting federal waste, increasing production, reducing taxation, dealing with unlawful immigration, he can make the USA more prosperous and more at ease with itself than it’s been since the 1950s.

And no matter how much the politicians and the media lie to you about it, if Trump turns the USA around it’ll be impossible to hide the truth.

People this side of the Atlantic will then ask: ‘Why are we destroying our economy, our country, our children’s futures, by following an anti-human, de-growth agenda, dictated by some of the biggest corporations and richest individuals on Earth?

And the only honest answer will be – ‘Because you’re incredibly fucking stupid!

So stop being stupid, catch up with reality, and look forward to Donald J Trump becoming the 47th President of the United States of America.

I can’t wait!

And don’t forget to support the farmers in their London protest on the 19th. Because the bastards who are coming for the farmers’ land are the same bastards coming for your car and your flight to Majorca. The same bastards who want you to go vegan. The same bastards who think your electricity bill should be at least £1,000 a month – ‘to save the planet, innit‘.

♦ end ♦

© Royston Jones 2024

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Moch

Great piece again jac.

I watched some of the CNN coverage at 2 AM ish and could not believe the sheer arrogance and contempt the obviously Democrat commentators/presenters had for the electorate..

They were saying that this and that area of a state was predominantly inhabited by African American or Latino so they WILL definitely vote democrat..

Oh dear what a shame it all went tits up for them.

Lets hope Welsh Labour carry on with the same contempt & arrogance to the electorate and are given one mighty bloody nose in 2026.

David Smith

Apparently some rap ‘artist’ (I use that term in the loosest possible sense) is having a moan about the charity sent to Africa from Europe being ‘dehumanising’ or some equivalent crap. There is literally nothing that can satisfy these pricks is there, and they do absolutely zilch for race relations to boot.

Dafis

Interesting piece of info you’ve put out about land near Llanafan Nr Builth Wells. At least those people are not likely to cover the ground with a big turbine structure and all the junk that goes with it. They may of course set up a few solar panels and small wind driven generation units to meet their own needs on site.

Much as I dislike PA BritNat types with all that Anglo supremacist bullshit that comes with them I find them more acceptable than the recent crop of landgrabbing corporate shits and their lackeys. Justified by Milliband’s cockeyed views on saving the world they appear set to cover as much ground as possible with turbines, panels, trees and pastures for a new influx of non native species. Squeezing grants, carbon credits out of our financial system is proving very rewarding for these despicable bastards.

Dafis

In that case I trust that HnH haven’t alerted some land grabbing green gospel driven outfit that bits of land could be available to purchase in the Llanafan area. Or the OPD inspired mob start looking at it !.

David Smith

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14083151/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-racist-dogs-Wales.html

Another missive for you Jac. It is getting harder and harder to believe that the Senedd is not a plant geared to put people off independence. How else to explain how out of step with general public wants and needs these cunts act? Labour could have used the funds for that ‘study’ on alleviating some of Starmer’s winter fuel axe. But pandering to nutters takes precedence over meat and potatoes issues, that affect people of all creeds and colours.

David Smith

I bet 99.9% of Muslims don’t give a toss. Any that do should avail themselves of the fact that dog ownership is a big part of our culture. I’d submit to them in that case, in the nicest possible terms, that If it’s an insurmountable grievance on their part, off they should fuck to the dog-free utopia of their choosing.

Gruff Williams

Globalists: are we referring to specific individuals ?

David Smith

I think there is some school of thought, somewhere, that ‘globalists’ is a kind of antisemitic dog-whistle.

David Smith

Didn’t he make a mint off Black Monday in the early 90s, in what will have amounted to betting on ruination and loss of livelihood?

David Smith

I’m not sure what you’re implying by your discussion of large cities deciding who the respective state votes for. It’s already not a true case of one man, one vote, due to the Electoral College. The States is supposed to be One Nation Under God, and on this basis, it’s apples and oranges when compared to what is universally agreed by all here, even unionist Westminster governments, that the UK is a multinational state. A multinational state with one member dwarfing the other three put together 5:1. Illinois-ians in Chicago or the sticks are still Illinois-ians, and still Americans too.

David Smith

Yes, I often use that as a counter-argument against the assertion that Cardiff rule is London-rule-lite. While criticisms are manifold and justifiably so, the Rhondda, ain’t the ‘Home’ Counties.

Neil Singleton

I found it interesting/revealing that the only states the Dems won were those in which voters did not have to produce ID to vote……mmmmm!

David Smith

Like with so many measures, policies, and even inanimate objects, the mental gymnastics have been undertaken to arrive at that all-important conclusion, it is somehow racist.

Ifor l'engine

Don’t believe the hype in the media, the new President of the USA won’t have that much effect globally.

The view from the UK is distorted by the similarity in language, non-anglophone countries are liitle affected by American influence and often actively resist it. 

Culturally America is probably much more diverse than people realise.  The English – by self-reported ancestry- only make up 22% of the population . German-Americans are not far behind with roughly 17% of the population. ( Donald Trump is German on his father’s side and his wife is Slovenian).
You also have the Irish 9%, Italians 5% Chinese 5%, etc.
About 55 million Americans speak Spanish – approx 16% of US citizens . About 2 million speak French ( or French creole ) at home and another million of so speak German.

A bigger version of England with a funny accent it most certainly is not.  Therefore trying to project UK expectations onto the rest of the planet doesn’t work.

Likewise the view from the UK of the status of the American economy and military is also overstated. For example people tend to think of America as a big country, but it only has a population about one quarter the size of India or China. Or, closer to home, about three quarters the size of the EU. Indonesia isn’t far behind the US either.

The US economy is fragile. It hasn’t seen a surplus since the days of Ronald Reagan and its debt is increasing. If BRICS push their policy of dedollarisation then it could be in serious trouble.

USA standing military is around 1.4 million. Compared to China approx 2 million, the EU 2 million and India and Iran ( yes Iran ) both approx 1.4 million. It’s success since WWII has been patchy. Their only real claim to fame was in the Persian Gulf – check it out and come to your own conclusions.

If you look anywhere, apart from the London based media, it is fairly obvious that American influence is in decline. Globally people are generally fed up with their agressive foreign policy. Perhaps illustrated by a quote going the rounds on the internet ( generally attributed to Nelson Mandela ) which says “When two neighboring countries fight each other, just know the USA visited one.”

In consequence NATO was falling apart before the war in Ukraine; and BRICS is a response to US interence. Trumps option’s and influence are therefore limited. Even the war in Ukraine may be over before he can intervene.

 

David Smith

If you think American influence is overstated, take a trip to pretty much any non-natively anglophone European country you like, head to a bar and strike up a conversation with anyone who appears to be under 40, in English. The fact that said conversation will almost invariably be struck up, is not down to British imperial influence.

Moch

Lots of Americans have Welsh ancestry as well ,going by my DNA hits /matches on the genealogy sites but many with nordic or german surnames nowadays.

Wynne

I seem to recall that Trump’s previous campaign slogan was “drain the swamp”. Those living in the swamp will no doubt try to put major obstacles in his path. He will need to appear in public behind bullet-proof glass when in office!

Stephen Morris

You mention the Tammany Hall Democrats. Their notorious corruption in the 1930s at least gave raise to a wonderful Broadway show, ‘Fiorello’, about Fiorella La Guardia (after whom the smaller of NYS’s airports is named) who subsequently did a lot to clean up the city.

https://youtu.be/hayIxnLyQ6s?si=KL9lFxi1gWGWiRkJ

83658294628

The best guide to the next Trump presidency is undoubtedly the last Trump presidency.

On that basis it will be an incompetent shambles that the next guy will have to sort out. But if he keeps up the usual deep state rhetoric his supporters will be kept happy. At least for now.

The greater concern remains what happens in the longer term. The most likely outcome of his approach will be the continued enrichment of a tiny establishment elite, and the lowering of living/working/health/environmental standards for the majority. Much the same as Conservative rule has delivered in the UK.

That combined with the likely appeasement of Russian aggression in Europe makes for a volatile mixture of events that are likely beyond his comprehension.

Invented perils like ‘wokness’ will only distract the gullible for so long. In the meantime I suspect most things will be left unchanged, and what is reversible should democracy continue.

As a result, as I am neither American, a women, a minority, or in a nation which borders Russia, I am largely unbothered by his win. But maybe I am just too selfish.

Dafis

Everything was cheaper under David Cameron but that was so long ago it’s irrelevant !

The USA’s bout of inflation post Covid was much like that which happened in UK, Europe and other parts of the world. However the USA has seldom experienced a real ripper of inflation so it left deeper scars despite recent slow down in the overall rate.

Opponents of Trump (different from those of us who are not admirers) fail to see that much like the UK experience the fall in the overall rate of inflation hid for some time a much slower fall in the basic staples of life, like food, domestic consumables and fuels. Even the USA with its indigenous wealth in foods and energy resources suffered from price gouging by major retailers and their big corporate suppliers.

I remain dubious whether Trump will tackle these issues effectively. After all he is of “the corporate cliques” even though he poses as a maverick. He may choose to abandon some of USA’s global defence commitments but I can’t see that leading to a reduction in spend with the big military/defence corporates who “own” so many of those in Washington even among Trump’s allies. Most likely it will be privatisation of stuff currently undertaken by government agencies so another bumper bonanza for shadowy corporate cliquesters and their bankster backers. Private military contractors will look south to the border and see it as one big goldmine.

Finally Trump presents some seriously feeble political people in the UK with a massive distraction. Now I don’t blame him for that, the fault lies with those who choose to be distracted because they will spend far too long gassing off about him and what he might do and devote too little time to sorting out the issues that fall within their area of responsibility. Getting one’s knickers in a knot because Trump is going to rub out lots of E,D & I stuff is not helpful especially as it will probably be one of his more flippant gestures.

Dafis

Globalism is about the axis of evil formed between corporate cliques and their allies in governments around the world. To date globalism fails to present an unified face mainly due to a number of figures who fancy themselves as “the big shot” or capo de tutti capi to use a term coined in a different age. Just like the organised crime groups of old these fuckers are happy to collude but have the occasional schism while they pull or push in different directions.

Trump will have a go at pulling in a different direction, many will be happy to go along with him. The interesting bit will be when some other person or group decides he’s trod on their toes and they decide to push back.

From a personal point of view I’m more reassured by the recent comments from the President of Azerbaijan who told likes of Millipede and Starmer that he isn’t about to stop extracting energy resources out of his gas and oil fields just to suit some little prick with an overdeveloped sense of self importance and a misguided understanding of how energy will be produced in the coming decades.

Dafis

Maybe they were aware that Aliyev was going to kick their hifallutin’ ideas in the nuts ! Good for him.

Dafis

Just a guess. Bunch of guys working in the Azeri hospitality sector offered a cheap deal and maybe a ride on a camel to some UN bigshot then tipped their government that it would be an ace opportunity to send a message to those wanchors out west. Job done. Their new tag line – COP for that you dumb fockers. Put it on your turbine and spin it.

83658294628

Everything was cheaper in the past, so associating that with Trump is at best a lazy analysis.

What we are all dealing with now is largely a legacy of Covid and Russia’s invasion on Ukraine.

Equally we also know that the worst of that, at especially Covid, is likely behind us from an inflation perspective. At least that is what the markets are currently reflecting.

i suspect that trend will continue, and no doubt Trump will take credit for it, as he did the legacy of Obama’s reforms in his first term. As is ever the case in politics, ‘what is good is down to me, and what’s bad was the last lot’. If it wasn’t a successful approach it wouldn’t be repeated everywhere.

83658294628

I agree it’s a facile argument. That’s why I was surprised you drew attention to it in your first response and called it out as it did. At least we agree that such arguments about prices being less under Trump are silly.

As I said previously, most of those rises have been down to Covid and Ukraine. Food and energy prices being the most obvious example. Sure some of that cost increase can be attributed to other things, be that Brexit or even climate action. Although it should be said that in terms of the latter, some of those increases equate to long term reductions relative to inaction. Nor should it be seen in isolation of course.

I don’t see much value in pretending that climate action has had more of an impact than those other things I’ve mentioned in recent times.

the point about disposable income is obvious and dealt with in my initial comment. What we do know is that much of Trump’s economic policy is liable to have a negative impact on such things, most notably his approach to import tariffs.

I happen to think it makes some long term sense to deal with China more aggressively, but let’s not share Trump’s denial of its short term implications. Hopefully, as I suggested previously, the rebound to the norm from Covid influenced inflation will help Americans avoid some of the pain.

83658294628

Let’s be honest here Jac, you made a silly and flippant response of little value, myself and another poster called you out on it. And now you’re talking about the JFK assassination while applying my points are speculative.

I can only wonder if you’ll let this comment be posted and call it a day, or just hide behind your admin rights.

Either way it’s been good fun.

David Smith

One thing the globalists are bang on the money with is depopulation for my money. Simple market economics dictates more people vying for resources which are ultimately finite will drive up the cost. That, and probably women entering the workplace and doubling the supply of labour has hit what a wage packet is worth. Not a popular opinion obviously.

David Smith

I have a friend in Belfast of Irish Republican stock who wants in no way whatsoever an United Ireland. She has her Irish passport and is happy with it. Her reasons? It’s cheaper to be part of the UK. My dad has the same attitude to an independent Wales: Cardiff rule won’t change a thing. The heart argument overwhelmingly is won in many cases for the breakup of the union, the economic is where the deciding battles will be fought. Consider the disparity between the census showing majorities for Scottish and Welsh exclusive identity in the minority, and the polls on independence.