{"id":5768,"date":"2014-02-07T13:18:40","date_gmt":"2014-02-07T13:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/?p=5768"},"modified":"2014-02-07T18:56:37","modified_gmt":"2014-02-07T18:56:37","slug":"housing-some-clarification","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/housing-some-clarification\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing: Some Clarification"},"content":{"rendered":"

I hope I can explain this without it getting too complicated. Here goes . . . <\/strong><\/p>\n

In a number of recent posts I have stressed the importance of household size \/ composition <\/strong>in determining how many new dwellings will be needed. So I thought I\u2019d better check with <\/strong>the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the correct definition, which is: \u201cA household is defined as one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room, sitting room or dining area\u201d. Which means that a group of students sharing a house would presumably be a household, but a retirement or nursing home for elderly people would be a \u201ccommunal establishment\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is important because each household is a separate dwelling. It follows therefore that <\/strong>predicted household size coupled with projected population increase will be used to assess the <\/strong>number of new dwellings needed. The smaller the household size, then the greater the number <\/strong>of dwellings.<\/strong>\"Households\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Returning to the ONS, that agency\u2019s Table KS101EW<\/a>, says that when the Census was taken in <\/strong>March 2011 the number of persons living in a household in Wales was 3,011,182. Table CH01<\/a>, also ONS<\/strong>, tells us that at the Census Wales had 1,302,700 households. If we divide <\/strong>the number of persons living in households with the number of households we have a figure of <\/strong>2.31 persons per household. <\/strong>Yet in its (2008-based) household size projections, Knowledge and Analytical Services (KAS), an arm of the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) in London, but based in Wales, predicted a household size for 2011 of 2.23<\/a>. <\/strong><\/p>\n

This difference of .08 may seem unimportant . . . until you remember that it equates to 46,764 dwellings and (x 2.31) a population of 108,025.<\/span> To put that into perspective, at the 2011 Census there were just 31,600 households in Ceredigion. <\/strong>Also bear in mind that, due to the ONS \u2018outsourcing\u2019 household size projections to the DCLG, it <\/strong>is KAS projections that are used to determine how many new homes will be needed in Wales in <\/strong>future years. Clearly, anyone wishing to make Wales plan for more new homes than she really <\/strong>needs has only to underestimate household size. <\/strong><\/p>\n

I understand that new household size projections covering the next 25 years are due out any <\/strong>day. These projections from the KAS will be invalid from the outset if they do not start at 2.31 in 2011, <\/span><\/strong>because this figure comes from the Census, it is not guesswork.<\/span> The new household size <\/strong>projections must also take into account other evidence that suggests a slowing in the rate of <\/strong>household size decline, if not a static household size. <\/strong><\/p>\n

These new projections must then be used to revise Local Development Plans and all other <\/strong>housing need projections in Wales.<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I hope I can explain this without it getting too complicated. Here goes . . . In a number of recent posts I have stressed the importance of household size \/ composition in determining how many new dwellings will be needed. So I thought I\u2019d better check with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for … <\/p>\n

Continue reading Housing: Some Clarification<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[216,207,82],"tags":[739,741,685,740,177],"class_list":["post-5768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-census-2011","category-colonisation","category-demographics","tag-departnment-for-communities-and-local-government","tag-household-size-wales","tag-knowledge-and-analytical-services","tag-ons-office-for-national-statistics","tag-statswales"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3gS9T-1v2","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/124"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5768"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5768\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}