{"id":55474,"date":"2025-10-24T19:00:35","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T18:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/?p=55474"},"modified":"2025-10-25T10:01:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-25T09:01:46","slug":"caerffili-by-election-random-thoughts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jacothenorth.net\/blog\/caerffili-by-election-random-thoughts\/","title":{"rendered":"Caerffili By-election: Random Thoughts"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>This piece is totally unplanned; but I want to get it out because I see so many misinterpreting the result and failing – or refusing to understand – what lies behind it.<\/p>\n

\u25ca<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

PLAID CYMRU AND LABOUR, LABOUR AND PLAID CYMRU<\/p>\n

Let me begin by congratulating Plaid Cymru on a great victory. As I’ve mentioned more than once, I was a member of the party for many years and, back in the 1970s, a candidate for both Swansea council and the old West Glamorgan county council.<\/p>\n

But it was a different party back then. Though the victor in Caerffili, Lindsay Whittle, seems in some ways closer to the party I belonged to than the modern party. We shall see.<\/p>\n

The Plaid campaign was strange in that it seemed to be more about stopping Reform than offering any policies of its own. And so it was reduced to a two-horse race; portraying Reform as the agents of Putin, Trump, and English nationalism (get your head around that!), with Plaid as the standard bearer for Wales, decency, and ‘progress’.<\/p>\n

Which was bollocks. The election was really about voters’ rejection of Labour. Everything else flowed from that.<\/p>\n

The people of Caerffili were justifiably pissed off with Labour for two reasons.<\/p>\n

First, 26 years of abject failure by the Labour party managing Wales from Corruption Bay. From which Plaid and Reform profited.<\/p>\n

But let’s remember that Plaid was in coalition with Labour between 2007 and 2011, and the two are currently in some ill-defined ‘agreement’. Furthermore, and just like Labour, Plaid supports the Globalist-Woke agenda on climate, gender, race, etc<\/em>., and would go further.<\/p>\n

Second, there was Keir Starmer factor: cancelling winter fuel allowance, rocketing electricity bills thanks to ‘clean green energy’, rising taxes, rent boys, immigration, Chinese Communist Party influence, rape gangs, Digital ID. A tower of betrayals and lies that will soon topple and destroy Starmer.<\/p>\n

So Plaid profited because they were seen by many as being a change from Labour. An improvement. And marginally preferable to Reform. With a strong local candidate, in Lindsay Whittle.<\/p>\n

But in addition to the shared outlook I just listed, and since Plaid abandoned independence the difference between Labour and the Party of Wales is, well . . . anybody got a fag paper? Don’t bother – there’d be nowhere to fit it.<\/p>\n

Here’s what they both really want: More political power for the Senedd and more funding from London; then they can make California Democrats look like Confederate flag-waving rednecks buck dancing by their likker stills.<\/p>\n

And as someone has pointed out to me, the constituency itself needs to be understood.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

His take is that the northern part of the constituency probably went to Reform.<\/p>\n

But the southern part, which touches Cardiff’s northern suburbs, is home to many ‘progressives’ who realised Labour is cooked and switched to Plaid.<\/p>\n

\u25ca<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

ATTITUDES, REACTIONS, RESPONSES<\/p>\n

One of the more puzzling outlooks came from those claiming to want independence but attacking Reform, and using choice language, for being “English nationalists<\/em>“. Which exposed, yet again, that the modern nationalist movement is home to some very strange, and stupid, people.<\/p>\n

I love to see the England flag. I want the English people to reclaim England. I want three independent countries on this island respectful of each other. The threat is not England or the English, the threat is a form of Unionism that has little respect for us and is subservient to supranational bodies and the Globalist agenda.<\/p>\n

Yet most of those who attack Reform as English nationalists want independence in order to rejoin a bankrupt and increasingly authoritarian EU pushing for war with Russia to distract from its internal collapse. This is insane.<\/p>\n

Reform may be Unionist – but looking at the bigger threat, to which independence under those now promoting it would sacrifice us – Reform appears<\/em> to want the same things I want.<\/p>\n

There was a post-election piece by Martin Shipton<\/a> in Nation.Cymru<\/a> today. Here’s one of the comments. Who’d have thought the president of Russia could be worked into a small comment on a Welsh by-election.<\/p>\n

Though I’m at a loss as to why proximity to Cardiff should matter. Unless it links with my earlier reference to the nature of the Caerffili constituency, and the dread thought of hairy-arsed ‘flag-shaggers’ encroaching on those leafy northern suburbs.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Knowing the political sentiments of some of those commenting to this piece (even the writer), I was struck by how easy it’s been for them – and others I’ve read today – to switch from Labour to Plaid.<\/p>\n

For them, it’s clearly the agenda that matters, not which party pushes it.<\/p>\n

Yet we might still see Labour go for broke, and try to out-Woke Plaid before next May’s Senedd elections. That’s what Paul Embery might have suggested today in this tweet.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Did a Labour Senedd member really say that on the Home Service?<\/p>\n

If so, how will Labour go about it? Just imagine . . . “We have set up a taskforce, with a budget of \u00a320m, to tackle the problem of transphobia in Llanfair Caereinion<\/em>“.<\/p>\n

\u25ca<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

LOSERS, WINNERS, CONCLUSION<\/p>\n

The party I support, Gwlad made little impression; hardly surprising if you lack rich backers and the media ignores you.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

But then, I remember it took Plaid Cymru 40 years before Gwynfor Evans won the Carmarthen by-election in 1966. So maybe it’s time to put Plaid’s victory in perspective.<\/p>\n

First, Caerffili was a by-election; strange things can happen at by-elections. I recall the Orpington by-election of 1962<\/a>. But it didn’t lead to a Liberal revival.<\/p>\n

And Plaid has been here before, winning seats in the Valleys. In the first Assembly elections<\/a> (of 1999) Plaid took Islwyn, and Rhondda, also Llanelli. Plus of course the usual seats further west and north.<\/p>\n

More recently, Leanne Wood won, then lost, Rhondda.<\/p>\n

I can even remember Plaid briefly taking control of Merthyr council.<\/p>\n

So Plaid winning a seat in this area is not unprecedented, but they tend to be flashes in the pan. Will Caerffili prove to be any different?<\/p>\n

The big difference now of course is that Labour is in real trouble. Is it terminal? Is Labour’s century of dominance in Wales over, just as the 1920s marked the end of Liberal hegemony?<\/p>\n

It’s too early to say, because as I said earlier, Labour paid the price in Caerffili for both its own record in Wales, and the unpopularity of a Labour administration in London. A change of government in London would almost certainly help Labour here, but only so much.<\/p>\n

Because I think Labour in Wales was on the skids before Starmer got elected. In the Senedd elections of 2021 Labour got 46% of the vote in Caerphilly. In last year’s UK general election, it was down to 38%.<\/p>\n

And we may never see a majority Labour government in London again. Many younger voters, and middle class voters, will desert to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.<\/p>\n

And where are the Conservatives? Remember them!<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to the Senedd elections next May, and unless something dramatic happens between now and then, we’ll see Reform with most seats, but Wales run by a Plaid-Labour coalition.<\/p>\n

Which means that the big winner last night in Caerffili was, and the big winner next May will be, the Globalist agenda.<\/p>\n

\u223c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The punters looked from Labour to Plaid, and from Plaid to Labour, and from Labour to Plaid again; but it was already impossible to say which was which.<\/span><\/p>\n

Apologies to George Orwell, Animal Farm<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2666 end \u2666<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a9 Royston Jones 2025
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