Voting Brexit Party for Welsh independence


In June 2016 I explained why I was voting for Brexit in a post on this blog entitled, ‘EU Referendum: Why I Want OUT!‘ I followed it up after the referendum with ‘Brexit, Wexit: Things Can Only Get Better!’

I’m telling you this in the hope of proving that what follows is both intellectually and on all other levels consistent with what I wrote three years ago. Consistency being in short supply in Welsh politics at the moment.


I explained in June 2016, with the six points reproduced below, why I believed Brexit could result in Welsh independence.

  • We shall lose the EU hand-outs and these will not be replaced by Westminster.
  • Leaving the EU will result in economic meltdown.
  • The City of London will be replaced as Europe’s No 1 financial centre.
  • Brexit is fundamentally English nationalism.
  • Post Brexit the UK will experience the most repressive and anglocentric government ever known.
  • Scotland will probably become independent.

Since writing that I have also come to believe that the Brexit shambles, and the possibility of a hard border in Ireland, could well result in a reunified Ireland.

I concluded my pre-referendum piece in June 2016 with, ‘If you care about Wales, and if you want to see Wales survive and prosper as a nation in her own right, then you must vote to leave the European Union as the precondition for leaving the United Kingdom’.

I wrote that because I hoped for the debacle we see now, the confusion of political parties imploding and new ones appearing out of nowhere, with the emergence of an intolerant English nationalism that tries to shout everybody else down. I also wanted economic collapse. Does that make me irresponsible? Maybe, but only in the short term.

After the referendum Plaid Cymru’s leadership should have sat down, held hands, and engaged in an honest discussion in the hope of figuring out why so many Welsh people had gone against its recommendation and voted to leave the EU.

Had they done so they might have realised that many Welsh voters were pissed off with falling standards in health, education, housing and so many other fields; and they were relatively poorer than they’d been ten or twenty years earlier, with their concerns ignored by politicians they felt to be ‘distant’ and out of touch.

So they allowed themselves to be seduced and they took their frustrations out on the EU by voting for Brexit.

An honest inquiry like that should have made Plaid Cymru realise that many Welsh people were pissed off enough to vote for Brexit because devolution had failed them due to the ‘Welsh’ Labour Party being less than useless.

But when presented with the ever-open goal of England’s management team in Cardiff Bay Plaid Cymru always prefers to put the ball over the bar.

Wales voting for Brexit was as much due to Labour’s and Plaid Cymru’s inadequacies as it was to London’s neglect, proven by the situation in Scotland. There the SNP took Labour on in a no-holds-barred struggle – and won. With the result that since the SNP took control in 2007 things have visibly improved across the board for most Scots, and this influenced their vote in the EU referendum.

For by 2016 not only was Scotland doing much better than Wales by every measurable criterion, but the SNP had successfully convinced a majority of Scots that any problems affecting them could be attributed to London, not Brussels.

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Plaid Cymru’s failure to emulate the SNP’s success was due to the party spending almost two decades doing no more than a little light sparring with Labour prior to elections. The enemy was always ‘them wicked Tories, innit’, even when the Conservative Party was in opposition in Westminster!

A major reason Wales voted for Brexit in 2016 was Plaid Cymru’s failure to emulate the SNP. Worse, when not cwtching up to Labour the party was pushing a discredited ideology and obsessing over ‘niche issues’ rather than the everyday concerns of real Welsh people.

Plaid Cymru is now repeating past mistakes by linking up with groups like the Green Party that view Brexit, and Wales, through an Englandandwales prism. But it has no alternative because it failed to create a Welsh dimension for Brexit.


Since the overthrow of the Red Queen it appears that Plaid Cymru has, confusingly, moved further to the left! Not only that, but the party has reneged on its 2017 election promise to secure the best Brexit deal for Wales by recently coming out as a hard-line Remain party.

Both these trends were in evidence a week last Saturday at the All Under One Banner Cymru march in Cardiff. Not only was the event restricted to Plaid Cymru and its offshoots but there was as much if not more talk of socialism and EU membership than of Welsh independence.

One speaker, Sandra Clubb, of Undod – Plaid’s ‘independence-but-only-if-it-means-a-socialist-dystopia’ group – even called for a socialist feminist republic. I bet that would be jolly!

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Sandra Clubb is the wife of Gareth Clubb, Plaid Cymru’s CEO.

Consider this: Plaid Cymru was never able to shake off the perception that it’s a party for Welsh speakers. This belief limited the party’s appeal and cost it the votes of otherwise well-disposed, Welsh-identifying anglophones.

Rather than learning from this difficulty Plaid Cymru is now further limiting its appeal by saying, ‘We are the party of independence – but also a socialist party wanting EU membership’. Thereby alienating non-socialists and those none too keen on the EU . . . in a country where the majority voted for Brexit!

This self-destructive positioning can only happen when there is a monumental misjudgement of the public mood brought about by echo-chamber ‘debates’. Social media does indeed have a lot to answer for.

As for the undoubted increase in support for independence, this is due to the same anger as influenced the Brexit vote – but with three more years of it! And there are more who feel this way.

With growing numbers of people increasingly pissed off it’s inevitable that some will look with fresh eyes at Welsh independence. But this has little or nothing to do with anything Plaid Cymru has done.

Yet we see Plaid Cymru trying to ride this wave, and even control it, by presenting itself as the only party offering independence. Which explains why Ein Gwlad was not even informed of the Cardiff march, let alone invited to participate.

One obvious manifestation of this mood has been YesCymru.


I was so glad to see the emergence and growth of this new movement, bringing many new faces into the independence tent by avoiding ideologies and having no links with any political party – as is the case with All Under One Banner in Scotland. But it couldn’t last.

That’s because despite having made little or no contribution Plaid Cymru still wants to both capitalise on and control the growing mood for radical political change within Wales. While also being the local franchise for a UK-wide anti-Brexit movement of the woke and the ‘progressive’.

My understanding of YesCymru is that it’s a loose collective of independent local groups. But to counter centrifugal tendencies it has a Central Committee, and a Constitution. Towards the end of last year, first at an Annual General Meeting, and then at an Emergency General Meeting, both were changed to personnel and rules more attuned to the thinking of Plaid Cymru’s leadership.

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To cover all the bases, in January, Plaid Cymru launched Undod, an outright socialist group, which as we’ve seen, is calling for a socialist feminist republic. Now some tell me I’m out of touch, so maybe there are tens of thousands marching for this feminist republic. If so, they have not marched past Château Jacques.

And although YesCymru maintains the pretence of being ‘a non-party political grassroots organisation’, this pretence is wearing a little thin. A couple of recent incidents will explain what I mean, in relation to both the EU and Plaid Cymru.

Last Wednesday, Nigel Farage visited Merthyr, and the local branch of YesCymru was out protesting. More than that, they blocked a road to stop people from attending the Brexit Party rally.

Then on Saturday, when Plaid Cymru was out leafleting in Chepstow, the local YesCymru crew turned up in support.

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We’ve seen (in the passage of the Constitution I linked to above) that YesCymru claims to be ‘non-party political’, but what does the Constitution say about the EU?

What it says is (my highlighting):

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That reference to ‘the wider European family’ could mean cousin Helmut in Düsseldorf, but I suspect it hints at something else.

If you’re going to write something as soppy and vacuous as what we see in the panel above then why not start with something along the lines of, ‘A new relationship based on mutual respect between the nations of these islands’ before moving on to Europe and the wider world?

Though in fairness, I must say that many YesCymru branches do remain ‘non-party political’, and also avoid the Brexit debate. Using a rule of thumb, the further a YesCymru branch is from the poisonous influences of Cardiff Bay the more likely it is to be true to YesCymru’s espoused principles of neutrality and focus on independence.


As a student of history, I know that Welsh independence is more likely to emerge from political chaos and economic disaster than from the Tory party anchoring itself on the centre right, Farage’s new party imploding, ‘Welsh’ Labour and its third sector continuing to run Wales (down), the UK remaining in the EU, and Plaid Cymru . . . well, just being Plaid Cymru.

For these, or any combination of them, will keep Wales in the UK.

Which is why I have always believed that leaving the EU acrimoniously and using the resultant shitstorm to our advantage will be the best outcome for Wales in the long run. I say that because this election on Thursday isn’t really about the EU, or Brexit; it’s a preliminary skirmish for an impending conflict to determine who controls the UK.

In Scotland, the SNP is using the 2016 Remain vote to push for a second independence referendum that it might well win. Across the water, la revanche du berceau continues to undermine Unionist supremacy, with the possibility of more moderate non-Catholics preferring unification with a now secular and prosperous South to remaining in a poor, bigot-heavy statelet.

Quite possibly the Brexit Party will cobble together a manifesto and stand in the next general election – which might be called before the year is out – which means we might end up with a coalition of Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage.

Of course, such a troika will need to reach out beyond England, but it already has allies north of the border and in the Six Counties in the form of the Conservative and Unionist Party, the DUP, Orange Lodges, Glasgow Rangers fans and assorted Loyalist gangs.

And they’re already on the streets. Saturday saw a little sabre-rattling in Glasgow.

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There are dark forces waiting in the wings, using organisations and groups like those in the panel above. These shadowy elements are determined to gain power by one route or another. (And I’m not the only one who sees this.) Which is why nothing must distract us from the bigger picture and the best interests of our people.

Voting for the Brexit Party and encouraging their shadowy friends to show their hand is more likely to draw a response that results in Welsh independence than voting for Plaid Cymru in a meaningless election when the party’s long-term objective seems to be – wait for it! – a return to the status quo ante referendum!

Do you recall those halcyon days, boys and girls? When Wales was a land of milk and honey (or beer if you preferred); those talented and imaginative politicians in Cardiff Bay ruled wisely, making all corners of our land prosperous, and we all danced in the streets shouting, ‘Good old Carwyn, may he reign forever!’

Cos I must have missed it.

♦ end ♦

CLARIFICATION: From the many comments received to my Facebook page it seems that some people think I actually support the Brexit Party. Let me explain . . .

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The Brexit Party and their shadowy friends are the means to an end. Socialists will understand this as ‘raising the revolutionary consciousness’ of the masses. Putting it bluntly, Dai Public is more likely to want independence after a kick in the nuts than yet another patronising pat on the head.

Call me cynical, call me an absolute bastard, but I’m a realist, and I know that just drifting along as we have done for 20 years – which is what Plaid Cymru wants – will get us nowhere.

It was neatly summed up in a letter in today’s Western Mail where someone concluded by saying that Brexit would result in “economic collapse and the breakup of the UK”.

Which is exactly what I’m saying. Short-term pain for long-term gain.

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Mel Morgan

Voting Brexit Party for independence strikes me as similar in logic to voting for smallpox because you’re in favour of vaccination.

David Smith

Do you not think that the 600,000 or whatever English settlers in Wales swung the vote, especially given the demographic makeup of a lot of this number (i.e. old). I suppose it’s sad but true that as much of this bloc as possible will need to be won over to have the best shot at winning a Welsh indyref.


Off topic, but the BBC in London has just penned an article about Cantre’r Gwaelod and says, “The forest has become associated with a 17th Century myth of a sunken civilization.” It’s an obvious attempt to distort the history of Wales to wholly implicate pre-existing global warming with the effects of man since industrialisation.

The fact is that there is written reference to Cantre’r Gwaelod in what has been labelled “Black Book of Carmarthen” the oldest surviving manuscript in the Welsh language written in the 9th and 12th century. Even the Halliwell manuscript written in middle English also refers to the Lord of Cantre’r Gwaelod around this time. Both put the inundation of the remaining land as the mid 6th Century.

Why has the BBC decided to manufacture and distort physical evidence and artefacts both in the Welsh and proto-English language? We know from scientific analysis both of the tree rings and radio-carbon dating that this part of the ‘sunken forest’ dates back as early as 4000BC and the inundation was due to rising sea levels from glacial melt, a natural warming process after the last ice age, with some inhabited remnants.
“4700 conventional radiocarbon years (c.5580 to c.5320 cal. years BP ) reported from Borth (Heyworth 1985)”.

Even more curious is that they attribute a new ‘discovery’ to storm Hannah in April. They have purchased copywrite of photos from April to accompany the article. Not exactly needed. The BBC has ample footage and narrative from Neil Oliver in an episode of ‘Coast’ filmed by them in 2006. Perhaps they were adverse to the Scots accent too?


I just noticed another bizarre article by the BBC, recently published. We see an attempt to ingratiate the great Albert Einstein, a German born Jew, with Britain.

It should be noted that the astronomer Arthur Stanley Eddington who conducted the ‘bending of gravity observation’ did so not out of scientific advance, but because he was a Quaker, subject to imprisonment as a conscientious objector in WW1, and the experiment was effectively done in exile.

A true representation of British appreciation of Albert Einstein can be seen in this exchange in the Westminster House, sometime later, in 1933.

John Simon was the Foreign Secretary (later rewarded with Viscount Stackpole of Pembroke). Not only did the British refuse to condemn the persecution of the Jews at international level, but also opposed the Locker-Lampson bill to extend British citizenship to Jewish refugees from Nazi persecution, and specified Albert Einstein.

Incidentally, Lansbury, the other speaker in the debate, the one who questions the veracity of the persecution of Jews, was the leader of the Labour Party at the time. Something you won’t get reported by the BBC.

Big Gee

The panic is setting in big style Brychan. Britannia is sinking below the waves and there’s an hysterical effort to stay afloat – using the same techniques as they always have.

They should note the result of Canute sitting on the sea shore demanding the tide not to come in!

I notice another attempt at unifying the ‘British’ mindset in a recent production soon to be broadcast called ‘Wales at war’.

Pretty pathetic really. Talk about scraping the barrel!

It’s akin to painting the funnels on the Titanic as it quietly sinks below the waves.


We see the BBC today, telling us that of the “Unusual Treasures of Wales” there is a Roman chariot. Trouble is, the chariot been dated to 600BC. The Romans did not arrive on the British Islands until 43AD, so the artefact was in fact a brythonic (early Welsh) artefact and nothing to do with the Romans.

It also mentions the ‘cape of gold’ found near Mold, dating back to 1,700BC, but this of course is not in Wales. It is on display at the British Museum in London. Then it mentions the medieval ship found near Newport which it said sailed from the Basque “region of Spain” in 1450. It should be noted that this would have been from the kingdom of Navarra. That was not incorporated into Spain until 1876.

British Bullshit Corporation.


In another Anglicisation of Wales report from the BBC tells us, today, that the Earl of Pembroke, William Marshal, is now honoured with a tapestry woven by a group of seven “feminist” women from Lewes in Sussex. This tapestry is to be displayed at Pembroke castle.

What the BBC fails to tell us is that William Marshal, who was a marcher lord resident at Chepstow got his hands on the castle at Pembroke by marrying Isabel de Clare, the daughter of Richard Fitz Gilbert de Clare. As a woman, Izzy the daughter and betrothed vassal, under English law of the time, could not be trusted to own property.

Before the occupation the laws of Hywel Dda would have allowed the woman own the land herself. Good needlework ladies!


Jac, I was wondering, did your Welsh peers at University, who were also studying history, have an equal fervor for Independence or was the focus already lost on multiple causes, such as CND etc, or was their fire for independence lost, because of the limitations of the British run institutions they ended up working for? I imagine many of these peers formed part of the intelligentsia that informed Plaid Cymru policy making decisions, if so why was their focus lost and was their social class also an issue?
If the main problem, as mentioned earlier, is the various institutions and how they operate, what needs to be done to change them and what institutions in particular, need to change?

Recommended by a Friend

Plaid Cymru is has many faults, but it is the only pro-Welsh independence party in this ludicrous election. Eingwlad has failed to put up candidates. Could have got people elected and certainly would have saved the deposit. Telling people to vote for English nationalist lunatics is not good enough.

Big Gee

We at Ein Gwlad are not here to stroke our own egos, or to gain ‘Brownie points’ by taking part in an irrelevant election that ultimately has nothing to do with our stated goals.

We are a party that is totally focused on our country and her citizens. We will not be distracted from that. Playing games in this side line freak show, just to be seen mixing with the big boys, and projecting an image of something we are not is something we do not encourage.

The election itself is nothing but an accident of timing. Had the government in Westminster done it’s job properly, the UK -including Wales – would not be having this pointless exercise in the first place. It is purely a pointless exercise foisted upon us because EU protocols and bureaucratic rules dictate that as we are technically still within the EU, then the UK has to stand in these elections. It is purely a technicality, it has no relevance to our future.

As Jac rightly points out:

  1. The EU election will be nothing but a ‘nonsense’ as those elected from the UK will not have enough time to unpack their bags or warm their seats in Brussels, before they are shown the door. From Ein Gwlad’s perspective, we will keep out of it, keep our powder dry and save our pennies for the election that will properly count for us in 2021. Standing in a sham election does not further our goals an inch. Standing in these elections for us would be a mammoth waste of resources, time and money – for nothing! We analysed and discussed this at length within our Steering Committee, and came to the conclusion that standing in these elections, just for the exposure element is not what we are about. When we stand in an election it will be for the right reasons, and not an exercise to show we are there to be seen running with the pack. That is a silly game for the establishment parties – including Plaid. We think laterally and pragmatically – we do things VERY differently.

  2. This is Jac’s personal blog, where he is free to write according to what he thinks and does as an individual. We wholeheartedly encourage that freedom of speech, which is embodied in our Constitution and Manifesto. That ‘freedom’ has to be respected at all times. That does not necessarily mean that what Jac writes is of necessity a reflection of what Ein Gwlad does or doesn’t do. Jac is a treasured member, and as long as he is on side, we will continue to welcome him at our side. Some have mistakenly spouted that Ein Gwlad is ‘Jac’s party’, it’s not, and the first one to endorse that is Jac himself. We’ve had too much of this ‘whipping’ rubbish amongst the establishment parties, where individual members have to curb their freedoms, in order to please their party’s doctrines and ideology. That is partly the reason why they have become dead men walking across the European continent.


Zac’s tweet today about the proliferation of consultants in Cardiff strikes a chord here. Most of these advisers are able to charge a premium rate by virtue of being a “big brand” and by exploiting the commercial naivety of their prospective clients. Some time ago there was a TV programme about how the consulting arm of a Big Four accountancy practice was able to tie Ceredigion and other authorities into a deal where good fees were secured PLUS a slice of any savings generated from adoption of their advice. And most of the savings were delivered by cutting out services – sweet fuck all to do with performance efficiencies just slicing away services that communities depended upon.


Yes Dafis, I recall the interview with Ceredigion’s elected leader on the subject. I believe she decided to terminate the interview and walk out of the office rather than answer relevant questions.

Big Gee

If you knew the pedigree of the Plaid Council Leader in Ceredigion as I do, you would not be surprised Dafis.

I worked alongside her when I hosted a political current affairs programme on Radio Ceredigion years ago (Llais y Barcud). I worked with her as deputy chair of Plaid Ceredigion when she was chair, before my time as the chair, and spent time with her on the campaign trail. If you experienced that – you wouldn’t have batted an eyelid when she allowed the Council to be scammed of big bucks for ‘consultancy’ work by PricewaterhouseCoopers (doing business as PwC).

All show & no substance – it’s amazing how far it gets you, along with personal shopping trips to M&S in Cardiff with the incumbent AM for Ceredigion. And cosying up to Dai Lloyd Evans and his cronies, when Llais Ceredigion stood in elections to block the Independents from staying in power. Basically a female shit-pot, who will never be forgiven for her treachery – which she probably thought was a ‘clever’ move at the time.

A classic definition of Plaid Crachach – as they’re known, but more often than not the dimmest light bulb in the room, coupled with an amazing naivety!

If neurons produced enough electricity to light a bulb, they wouldn’t manage to light up a bicycle lamp between them!!

Red Flag

Latest European seat allocation projections. Brexit Party are going to do very very well but I think this over-states them a bit and possibly understates the Tories.:-

Scotland (6 seats)

North East England (3 seats)

North West England (8 seats)
BRX, BRX, LDem, Lab, BRX, Grn, BRX, LDem

Northern Ireland (uses STV as opposed to D’Hondt)

Yorkshire & Humber (6 seats)
BRX, BRX, LDem, Lab, BRX, Grn

Wales(4 seats)

West Midlands England (7 seats)
BRX, BRX, Lab, BRX, LDem, BRX, Grn

East Midlands England (5 seats)
BRX, BRX, Lab, BRX, LDem

Eastern England (7 seats)
BRX, LDem, BRX, Grn, BRX, LDem, BRX

South West England (6 seats)
BRX, LDem, BRX, Grn, BRX, LDem

London (8 seats)
BRX, LDem, Lab, Grn, BRX, LDem, Lab, BRX

South East England (10 seats)
BRX, LDem, BRX, Grn, BRX, LDem, BRX Con Lab, BRX

Brexit Party – 35 seats
Lib Dems – 15 seats
Labour – 8 seats
Greens – 7 seats
Cons – 1 seat
DUP – 1 seat
Sinn Fein – 1 seat
UUP – 1 seat
Plaid – 1 seat

Red Flag

“Jac – You left out the SNP.”

There you go:-

Brexit Party – 35 seats
Lib Dems – 15 seats
Labour – 8 seats
Greens – 7 seats
SNP – 3 seats
Cons – 1 seat
DUP – 1 seat
Sinn Fein – 1 seat
UUP – 1 seat
Plaid – 1 seat

David Smith

Would you be opposed to a supranational union with England in a similar manner as Belarus-Russia? I hate to say it but the geographical reality of our situation is we share a long, meandering border that I don’t think any of us want any customs posts along, and which is devoid of any real topographical basis beyond the Severn and Dee as anchors. We will need some sort of accord or harmony with England on trade deals and customs arrangements, at least as far as I can see.

Eos Pengwern

The US and Canada show that long, rural borders with the occasional urban cluster along them cause no problems, even in the absence of any sort of formal union.

But it goes without saying that independent Wales would be much better off if relations with independent England were cordial. I’ve previously referred you to Ein Gwlad policy in this area, which we’ve thought through in quite a lot of detail.

Jonathan Edwards

CUD is right “Need to create a Welsh narrative in any way we can really. Beyond language, identity and history but institutions as well. A narrative that can stand on its own two feet – as we should as an Independent nation.”
Legal and political theory tells us that when its when a country falls into chaos that the biggest political changes happen. Classically you call a Constitutional Convention from the ashes of the old to devise a Written Constitution for the new world which needs building. Think W.Germany after WWII. Simple narrative, starts with Plaid winning a far far broader appeal, and getting the old Assembly to vote to set up a new one. Simple, but not easy.
I cannot join Jac in his liking for constructive chaos partly because Wales should be above chaos. OK, so maybe we are pretty chaotic. But the Welsh chaos would be dreadful and grim and never-ending. Why?
Because we lack that Welsh narrative in people’s minds. Convention/Constitution/self-rule. Pretty much none of our Welsh leaders have the knowledge and guts to build a new Wales. Such a shame. The Irish managed to grow out of a much more toxic chaos than this Welsh one.


There are two quite valid points Jac has made which those of ‘polite society’ prefer to ignore. Something, which is true, and applies to England, as unmanageable.

(1) Brexit is fundamentally English nationalism.
(2) Post Brexit the UK will experience the most repressive and anglocentric government ever known.

I call them the wearers of grey tracksuits.

This species can be found in places like Sunderland, Margate, Plymouth, Southend, Wigan and Grimsby. It’s places where white flighters like Reckless and Gill actually come from. Those of the grey tracksuit tend to be of low educational attainment, economically unproductive, poor, ignorant, too flabby to yomp, often unemployable in an advanced economy, think that someone owes them a living cos their ‘British’, innit. In the United States they are called ‘trailer trash’. They are the ignored. The stinking core of the Brexit vote, the turds which Farage and Co can whip up. He sees them as low lying fruit.

I have a sneaky suspicion that Brexit will not deliver them the golden chalice to which they have been promised.

Previously, these have been disposed of. In the days of empire, such schemes as planting in Ulster, gunned down in Flanders, or euthanasia by cholera has been the typical option. Options that don’t exist any more, although some have been appearing in Wales with ankle bracelets and the need to sign a register.

Will they become the business gurus of a new global market, or will they rot and riot?

I see no signs of those of the English tracksuit putting down their giro and lager to slave in the cabbage fields to replace the departing Poles and Romanians. What of the future for England?

Red Flag

Interesting polls this morning. First one is Britain votes, with a base of over 9,000. To be brutally frank, I don’t think either SNP or Plaid will be happy:-

1st and 2nd placed parties only.

Scotland:- SNP 38%, Brexit 20%
Wales:- Brexit 35%, Plaid 18%
London:- LDem 24%, Brexit 21%
North East:- Brexit 35%, Labour 26%
North West:- Brexit 32%, Labour 22%
Yorkshire & Humber:- Brexit 33%,18%.
East Midlands:- Brexit 37%, Labour 16%
West Midlands:- Brexit 40%, Labour 15%
South East:- Brexit 37%, LDem 21%
South West:- Brexit 42%, LDem 20%.

Second one is a brutally simple Opiniukm Poll and confirms something they and others picked up on over a month ago – that people were moving towards No Deal and finish it.

“If House of Commons can’t agree a deal”:-

Go ahead even if it means no deal – 47%
Cancel Brexit – 34%
Delay until we can decide what to do – 10%
Don’t Know – 10%

(Don’t Know, when pushed, split along the ines above which means No Deal breaks 50%)

Red Flag

With regards Scotland/SNP, I don’t think the SNP will be happy because they are only pulling 38% over something that is a key policy area for them.

David Smith

Whenever I see a unionist, quasi-literate account on Twitter with the apron emoji in their handle, they are invariably one of the Rangers faithful. These people have traversed self-parody, to god knows what. They are sad, near-identikit beings that natural selection seems to have passed by.


Weirdly enough, until around 10 years ago Rangers fans were far more pro-independence and nationalist than Celtic fans who tended to be die-hard Labour supporters.

The SNP has pretty much destroyed the Labour Party in Glasgow and its hinterland (something Plaid is unable to do in Glamorgan/Gwent) and is great at winning support of leftists without while remaining a broad church centrist party.

However, this realignment has somewhat alienated their old core vote in the East of Scotland. These people are soft nationalist, Protestant, pro-Monarchy and proud of Scotland’s role the Empire.

Unlike us, the Scots have no inferiority complex when it comes to the English because they see themselves as the tougher, more robust cousin of their fellow Germanics ‘doon sooth’. Ulster loyalists are a similar breed, they might be proud of their British identity but most of them don’t really like the English.

Although we face the very real threat of colonisation and assimilation, in a sense we’re lucky here in Wales because despite our regional differences, we are one people and always have been. Sectarianism plays no role in our national life. These days hatred towards our language and culture generally comes from people born elsewhere.

The Scots were never one people and they needed strong institutions to create a Scottish nation. However, these old ethnic divides within Scotland are easily exploited. In contrast, we are far more united than many realise.

If we can put up a good fight and survive the next few decades we’ll be alright. Daw eto haul ar fryn!

Neil Singleton

Any votes in Northern Ireland and Scotland simply amount to sectarian headcounts.

Neil Singleton

Yes in Scotland. Rangers and Celtic? Catholics vote for Independence, Protestants vote Remain in UK, just like N. Ireland. The SNP has a very close association with Sinn Fein.

Neil Singleton

So sad that you insult me for expressing facts that do not fit into your narrative. The SNP has a long history of “associating itself” with Sinn Fein. Alex Salmond publicly expressed the view in 2014 that “he would never work with the Conservatives but he was very happy to work with Sinn Fein as the two parties objectives were the same i.e. Independence from the British State.” Furthermore, I have relatives in Scotland some of whom are SNP members who tell me that the SNP has a very close relationship with Sinn Fein “at the highest levels in both parties”.


Scottish Catholics (mostly found in the de-industrialised Central Belt, including Glasgow and Edinburgh) have traditionally voted Labour. Since the destruction of Labour in Scotland by the SNP, over 50% of Catholics switched to voting SNP, aware that Labour had let them down.

About a third of Protestants support the SNP and indendence. But there are more Protestants than Cattholics. Therefore, although the change of heart by Catholics has given a huge boost to the indepence cause, there are probably more Protestant indy supporters than Catholic indy supporters.

A ‘sectarian headcount’ on the subject of independence would not divide along the lines suggested by Neil Singleton. More usefully, both denominations counted together would probably give a majority of Scots in favour of independence.


Not exactly true I.e I voted brexit as did many I know and I am a catholic. Btw, according to reports the turnout in n.ireland was 45% for the EU election. In a lot of traditionally nationalist areas the turnout was very poor. So despite all parties bar the unionists parties declaring the ‘majority’ want to remain it hasn’t roused the locals that much to even vote. That’s despite the parties selling this election as a demonstration of the people’s commitment to remain in the EU. Go figure.

David Smith

It could also be looked at that as SNP:Brexit is almost 2:1, there is a re-affirmation of the near 1.5:1 ratio of the remain vote in Scotland in the referendum.


I think at this point either way it goes the pro-Indy movement probably needs to accept that we’ll be leaving the EU. If Brexit goes ahead… yeah there’ll be chaos as you say. If we Remain then the EU is going to do everything it can to dissuade us from leaving the UK. Guy Verhofstadt paints a very clear picture of what some in the EU want and do not want. How Catalunya has been treated by the EU shows that people with that mindset are the ones calling the shots. Going through the reapplication process will deliver the same pains as Brexit would. We’d be effectively leaving two Unions at once.

Effectively we’ve got two pathways ahead of us: a staggered separation from both Unions (that is Brexit followed by Welsh Indy) or both at the same time if we Remain.

I’ll be voting Plaid on Thursday though as we’re not ready for Indy. Or rather the Indy movement is not ready for Indy. It’s not about Brexit. It’s about a solid sense of foundation in which we can build an Independent Wales. We lack a sense of self – at this point an Indy Wales would be torn between pro-Europeanism and Unionism with nothing in the middle – and that’s the dangers of building the Indy movement out of Brexit. We’d effectively be like the Italian States – caught between the Guelphs and Ghibellines.

Need to create a Welsh narrative in any way we can really. Beyond language, identity and history but institutions as well. A narrative that can stand on its own two feet – as we should as an Independent nation.


Well the attitudes to Scotland as well – first its reapply after they’ve left the UK then its “If you have a referendum before the UK leaves you can stay”. Very clear intentions there. Mirrored in the establishment with the Remain lot trying to support the Lib Dems as the Remain party for Wales (and their twitter antics the last few days) rather than Plaid.


Wow Jac.
Have you considered the implications of what you are saying?

I can hear the sounds of breaking finger nails across the Gwendraeth. Mari Arthur has already warned us of the impending Trimsaran halloumi famine. Sales of the Guardian in Ceredigion will plummet. Waitrose will be forced to close their outlet at Cardiff Gate and third sector executives will find it hard to pick up bottles of chardonay when driving home though Llandaf.

Have you thought about future generations?

Labour MPs in Wales will not be able to get overseas education grants from Denmark to send their kids to Atlantic College. Dafydd Elis Thomas will have difficulty getting parts for his contemporary, but slightly understated, wood burning aga and it might even result in limited access to smoked ricotta and kale mousse wraps at Swansea ethnic womens empowerment seminars.

Interesting times ahead.


Just to add, I’ll be voting for Jill Evans not because I believe that Plaid Cymru can deliver independence, but as a personal vote.

She wants independence to the core, and is dismayed at the sometimes obnoxious cul-de-sacs that others in Plaid are taking the party. Never trusted by the crachach and constantly sidelined into honorary positions, the Europe seat being traditionally a non-job, and was shipped off to Strasbourg. She does however, have a close eye and understanding of the Rhondda valley and looks on some of the antics of some of her fellows with disdain.

It should be remembered that Jill identified, some years ago, that re-qualification for EU Objective One funding was a disaster awarded in the face of failure. Some others in Plaid regarded it as a desirable honey tree.

It would be a very different proposition if McEvoy or Caiach was on the Plaid list, but the decision to exclude was an act of amputation of the parts of Wales any party seeking independence must include.


Guardian, or its online sibling, will do fairly well in Ceredigion as long as the Uni at Aber and lesser extent Lampeter continues to be a haven for imported AngloBrit academics. Those toxic colonists with their snobby arrogance towards natives have provided Labour and some extent LibDems with a core presence for decades, and with Plaid become “progressive” real patriots will have to flock down to Gwilym’s place by the sea for reliable representation!

Gwilym ab Ioan

You say the nicest things about me sometimes Dafis – but as a natural shrinking violet – it embarrasses me greatly!!


You do a good job of being modest, yet it’s your competition for the patriot vote that have most to be modest about. Their underachievement is plumbing new depths.

Eos Pengwern

That’s a baffling comment, Dafis. What do you mean by it, exactly?


Gwilym is a modest guy tending not to sound off about his evident talents. Others, long established players on the Welsh political scene, rate themselves highly but if they ever engaged in some serious self appraisal they would realise that their impact has been miniscule. Geddit ?

Eos Pengwern

Ah, yes I see; I’m afraid I’d completely misread what you wrote at first, and thought you were taking a poke at us in Ein Gwlad. It’s just as well I asked for clarification rather than jumping in with both feet.

I’ll be frank that its frustrating for us sitting on the sidelines at present while Brexit sucks all the oxygen out of political debate, but whatever happens we can be sure that the landscape will be very different by the time we enter the fray at the next Senedd election.

I expect that there’ll be little left of the Brexit Party by then, and both Plaid and Labour will have thoroughly alienated themselves from the eastern half of the country; especially if Labour push for a second referendum. We just need to get ourselves ready with as many feet on the ground as possible to take advantage of the situation.


No “reply box down below so stick another in by ‘ere then :

Eos, Paid a poenu am gamddehonglu fy Saesneg. Er taw yn Saesneg nes wario fy holl yrfa drwy addysg a gwaith roeddwn yn dal i feddwl yn amlach drwy gyfrwng y Gymraeg ac mae hynny yn gallu achosu cymlethdod pan yn mynegu fy hun yn Saesneg ysgrifenedig weddol ffurfiol.

Eos Pengwern

Popeth yn iawn felly, Dafis; wrth ail-ddarllen peth a sgwennoch chi, mae yn ddigon glir ond rhywsut ces i fy nrysu ar y cyntaf.


There’s hardly an university left in Lampeter. Seriously. – totally disembowelled by Coleg y Drindod what’s its name taking over the world University

max wallis

No point in voting BRX as 35-36% gives them 2 seats even if they sink to 30%. With Plaid polling stronger than Labour, tactical anti-Lab voters do best to switch to LibDem (on the rise already). It just takes a few % switching from Plaid and BRX (and Greens and ChangeUK) to give them a seat instead of Labour.
it’s moreover irresponsible to vote for ‘no deal’ brexiteers, who’ll cause a border within Ireland and community conflict that will set back peaceful transitioned to a united Ireland by a decade. Show some solidarity with our celtic cousins, Jac!


I am afraid the Irish nationalist parties have the same mentality as Plaid I.e they wanna stop brexit even though I believe(as do others) that brexit offers a great chance of irish unification. I voted brexit in the small hope that this indeed would create turmoil for the UK. The status quoers in Ireland pay lip service to Irish unity allthewhile bricking it if it indeed comes on the table.. Pure frauds and indeed possibly compromised. Btw, the threats of violence being touted should not be taken seriously I.e most Irish republicans wouldn’t jeopardise the mess Westminster has made by their own hand. Only compromised groups would give London a get out gift. P.s unionist violence was always controlled by Whitehall I.e if they begin violence you know who is pulling the strings.

Red Flag

In the last European Election in 2014, the four seats were won by:

Con (21.2%)
Lab (20.3)
Plaid (18.5%)
UKIP (12.8%)

The Liberal Democrats finished 5th and did not get allocated a seat.

As it is looking at the moment, Brexit Party will take 1st and 3rd, Labour 2nd, and either Plaid or the Lib Dems taking 4th.:

Plaid/Lib Dem.

That’s two for hard brexit, one for soft cuddly Brexit and one for Remain.

Plaid are currently polling around 16% for this election(lower than last time) having succesfully gone backwards in the most politically-charged environment this country has ever seen since the suffragettes.

Far off in the distance I can hear a cupboard door creaking open in Plaid HQ so that the usual ‘we were squeezed’ excuse can be brought out and dusted off, ready to be presented next Monday morning.

Plaid are going nowhere fast because their appeal is too narrow and that’s all there is to it. I resigned from Plaid in December just gone and am currently campaigning for the Brexit Party.


I reckon that all they’ve done since intro of Devolution is imitate SNP. Unfortunately they operate in a different environment so mimicking another’s experience just won’t fit. Also when it comes to the crunch Ms Sturgeon has enough cojones about her to drive in hard and roll back her opponents and obstacles whereas Plaid has developed a line of rhetoric which folds up as soon as an opponent barks or an obstacle confronts it.


Come the day when we get a referendum and we win it are plaid going to advocate staying in the UK because Dave of Doncaster says we didn’t know what we voted for, or Kevin from Kent says it might knock our economy, or Audrey from Aberdeen says it’s all to comp!icated and boring? Are we f@@k. Plaid are giving the Brit nat unionists all the ammunition they need to never give us a peaceful, Democratic way of leaving the UK. I’m no conspiracy theorist but I swear to god I’m now convinced Plaid are controlled opposition. It’s basic stupidity. When the Catalans were getting beaten and imprisoned for winning a referendum, Plaid were all over it, where are they now a referendum is being denied? Their The chief cheerleaders after an easy vote. The Catalans won that referendum and then The EU and Spain shat on them. Plaid are either stupid, opportunistic cowards or part of the British power machine. Explain the hypocrisy and stupidity to me because I just don’t get it.

Red Flag

Latest poll for the Euros for Wales. (YouGov for ITV & Cardiff University)

BRX 36%
Plaid 19%
Lab 15%
LDem 10%
GRN 8%
Con 7%

That would break down the four seats as :-


Which is still two hard Brexit, one soft cuddly Brexit, one Remain.

Now the interesting thing is Labour are not just losing Remain voters to Plaid/LDem/Green – they are now losing Leave voters in quite some numbers to Brexit Party. In addition, voters in all parties bar Brexit Party are proving to be highly volatile – losing voted to each other and also losing votes to Brexit Party (a significant chunk of Plaid, Lib Dem and Green voters voted Leave back in 2016 – 33%, 32% and 20% respectively). So you are getting movement from all the other parties to Brexit Party, all the other parties less Brexit Party to each other, Leavers solidifying around Brexit Party and disregarding historic party loyalties, and Remainers likewise disregarding historic party loyalties and switching around in quite large numbers in some sort of attempt at tactical voting.

( it also shows those standing on a Brexit position – BRX, Lab, Con, UKIP total 61%, and those standing on a Remain/Revoke position – Plaid, GRN, LDEM, CHUK total 39%).

Any politician that thought they were being clever messing brexit about and didn’t think this would happen is a half-wit. You reap as you sow and the establishment parties deserve what’s happening – and this is just the start.

And class-based politics is well and truly over.


I’m trying to find the logic in the campaign to ‘lend Plaid your vote’ to send a message to London for remain. This message is saying a number of things..

(a) people will not vote Plaid because of what they inherently stand for, a cynical attempt to disguise the independence policy,
(b) do not vote Plaid if you are a ‘Leave’ believer in Welsh independence, excluding half the population of Wales,
(c) after the current election, revert to your previous voting pattern, as if a Welsh voters are a disposable commodity.

I did notice this message change at the last minute to ‘I’m Plaid First Time’, a better catch phrase, which may have recovered some vote.

In my Llanelli constituency the Plaid official electoral leaflet did not highlight and lead with Jill Evans and the other candidates standing. It consisted of a big picture of and words from Helen Mary Jones TERF/AM, who’s not a candidate, has not been elected to any official role, not standing in any election, and not the party leader.

Plaid Cymru in Llanelli is a small clique of the ‘in crowd’, inward looking, a group of self appointed people who seek the right to rule for who they are rather than what they do. This probably also explains their social media feed consisting of ‘selfies’ rather than the people and area they seek to represent. Did they not have any photos from the indy march?


In Carmarthenshire BREXIT party got more votes than PLAID CYMRU.

BX 19004
PC 18040
LAB 7263
LD 4598
GN 2853
CON 2339
UKIP 1855
CNG 1371

So I think that, Helen Mary Jones is toxic figure and it was a huge mistake to put her as the lead in the local Plaid Cymru campaign, and the party branch in Llanelli is dead after having been assainated by their own.