Completely agree with you there Jac, and I’m probably far more radically left-wing than any in Plaid or Welsh Labour! People do feel that the mainstream left-wing politicians ignore them and their concerns. We all know that immigrants are an easy target, and a convenient scapegoat, which needs to be challenged, but the fears leading to such xenophobia and scapegoating also need to be taken very seriously indeed and addressed. The appeal of UKIP then would largely evaporate.

Not sure the logic of gauging how people vote according to how they self-identify is sound. People are fickle, and often do some of the most unexpected things – I know you are aware of that Jac, as that is, if I understand you correctly, exactly your point. I once remember being quite taken aback at meeting a very died in the wool Plaid Cymru supporting family in darkest Carmarthenshire who were also huge fans of the English royal family! I mean huge, in that they seemed to have just about every commemorative mug and plate going back to Queen Victoria in their china cabinet. I find this kind of behaviour distinctly worrying in the families of relatives who actually do stand up when God Save the Queen is played on the TV or the radio – at home, let alone amongst those who are supposedly nationalist supporters.

I think someone here hit the nail on the head when suggesting that the reason for UKIP’s relative popularity amongst Valleys people is that it is a protest against Labour, irrational fear of those described as immigrants, (though as you state, immigration to this are of Wales is low) and the complete lack of a backbone on the part of Plaid Cymru.

Plaid’s biggest mistake over the past 30 odd years has not been it’s increasing move towards the left, (it’s hardly radically left wing, even by the standards of the 1960s Labour Party, Trotskyists they ain’t) but rather it’s clear lack of an idea of where it wants to go, and where it’s at. I don’t think that independence has ever really been a big problem to potential voters in the Valleys and wider South East Wales, but Plaid’s constant dithering over the issue, some would say lack of honesty has been a huge problem, to the point that for considerable period of time all a Labour politician had to do to cut Plaid in it’s stride was to taunt them over the issue of independence, knowing full well that Plaid would go into a tail spin of denials and justifications that took the heat very nicely off Labour. Support for Plaid in the Valleys has been quite strong for nearly 50 years now, certainly strong enough to scare Labour to the point of vitriolic hatred for the ‘nationalists’.

If Plaid came out with a clear message about independence and what Wales really needs, and actually started campaigning on the basis of the discussions held with people on what they want from the Wales they live in then Plaid might well gain some real traction and kill the beast that is UKIP, and oust Welsh Labour too.

That’s what I’m saying. This is why Ukip is so successful in Wales – because Plaid just doesn’t appeal to enough people. And I’m not even sure it tries.

But to a certain extent haven’t us nationalists who have complained that Plaid is part of the establishment, without creating a viable National movement outside the establishment helped UKIP and British Nationalism?

What pisses me off most about those of us who criticise Plaid Cymru is that we are over concerned about the 5% who vote Plaid, and tend not to give a shit about the 95% of our compatriots who don’t know what the Welsh National cause is! The 95% is the target – the 5% is arguing about how many nationalists can stand on a pin head!

The meat-packing plant did open in 1999, well before the East European countries joined the EU in 2004. I moved to Merthyr in 2006 and have noticed a steady decline in the numbers of Portuguese relative to East Europeans in the last ten years. It seems likely that the original workforce was largely Portuguese but is now largely East European.

Well written and entertaining as it is there’s an element of denial on this blog, maybe its because I live near the meaningless border in the east of Wales where things are obviously different.

You keep telling yourself that.

I believe people in Wales who vote for UKIP for exactly the same reasons as they do in England and its as simple as that.

Actually in the last European elections (to take the two extremes) in Blaenau Gwent Ukip got 4300votes (an expected 30%) but in Gwynedd Ukip got 5780votes (an alarming 20%). I don’t think it’s language. It could be argued that ‘incomers’ to Gwynedd are the ones who vote Ukip but what’s happening in the eastern valleys (Welsh identifying but English speaking) is that Ukip are stealing votes off Labour.

Plaid Cymru would be the biggest party by far and the Ukip presence would be almost non-existent.