The Double Whammy

At the risk of repeating myself . . . There is an issue I touched on in an earlier post that has been nagging at me to the point where I think it needs another post to elaborate and explore it better.

In my attempts to explain the machinations of the Planning Inspectorate I have often used the example of Denbighshire. Partly because I like (inland) Denbighshire and partly because it serves the purpose well. In particular, I drew attention to the anomaly of Denbighshire being told – by the Planning Inspectorate – to build 8,500 new housing units (some of which have already been built) between 2006 and 2021 despite the population being projected to increase by only a further 2,927 between 2014 and 2021.

In an earlier post, Bodelwyddan and the Bigger Picture, I drew attention to a Planning Inspectorate report of 2013 into Denbighshire’s Local Development Plan, and the report’s rejection of the county council’s very reasonable attempts to get the new housing figure reduced in line with the revised population projections. What the inspectors said can be found in part 4.8 of their report, reproduced in the panel.4.8 What I neglected to explain fully in the earlier post was what is meant by “the LDP’s objectives and aspirations”, which expose the absurdities behind forcing a Welsh local authority to plan for some four or five times the number of new housing units it actually needs. So what are the “objectives and aspirations” of the LDP?

In essence, the LDP argues that because Denbighshire has an ageing population it must remedy this by bringing in to the county a younger population. The Planning Inspectorate is therefore saying, ‘Because you attract so many elderly English people to Denbighshire you must improve the county’s age profile by attracting a younger English population’. This is the insane ‘aspiration’ of the LDP, this is the double whammy I refer to in the title.

Yet at the 2011 Census the percentage of the county’s population in the 65+ age bracket was just 21% (the figure for Wales is 18.4%). But only 42.7% of Denbighshire’s 65+ population was born in Wales. While the figure for the 0 – 49 age group was 67.8%, and well over 70% away from the coastal towns. So the 65+ figure for Denbighshire isn’t really high enough to justify the numbers of new dwellings being demanded by the Planning Inspectorate. Strengthening the suspicion that the county is being forced into allowing thousands of new dwellings, close to the A55, for commuters from Merseyside, Manchester and Cheshire. Nothing at all to do with correcting a generational imbalance, that is merely a pretext.

Using the Denbighshire argument the Planning Inspectorate could demand excessive numbers of new housing in any area with an above average percentage of the population in the 65+ age bracket. Which would mean Gwynedd SW Wards mergedjust about any rural area. This is clever, and naughty, considering that it was the Planning Inspectorate that very often insisted on the flats and retirement bungalows that attracted the retirees and the elderly in the first place. Making the Planning Inspectorate’s solution a bit like ‘treating’ a hangover by getting drunk again and repeating the process endlessly. (Something I read about, somewhere.) There has to be a better way – the planning equivalent of not getting drunk in the first place.

In the area where I live the 65+ age group accounts for 30.1% of the total population, and of that group just 31.6% was born in Wales. (Click to enlarge panel.) By the Inspectorate’s own reasoning, this is not healthy, and something should be done to remedy the problem. But a younger element cannot be attracted to the area a) because there is little or no work and b) southern Gwynedd – unlike Denbighshire – is too far away for English commuters. So either we remedy the generational imbalance by bringing in a non-working younger population or we curb the numbers of retirees and elderly moving in. The answer is becoming obvious, especially when isolated.

The whole Western world admits to the accelerating problem of a falling birthrate / ageing population and wonders how to cope. Yet here, on the periphery of Europe, one of the continent’s poorest countries is actually encouraging elderly people to move in! This will result in the death of the Welsh language and the loss of Welsh identity, it will push the NHS and other services beyond breaking point while, economically, this house of cards cannot endure, because the idea that it’s possible to have a healthy, functioning society when the bulk of the adult population is economically inactive is simply delusional. While to misrepresent this phenomenon as proof of ‘Caring Wales’, or to make a virtue of it by arguing that it shows how ‘attractive’ Wales is to outsiders, is no better than telling a rape victim she should be flattered that someone found her so irresistable.

Curbing the numbers of retired and elderly people moving to Wales must henceforth be a priority for the ‘Welsh Government, because if this is not done then the costs will rise, and eventually engulf us. Now, obviously, the ‘Welsh’ Government, even if it was so minded, could not pass legislation stating this as an objective, but it could certainly introduce legislation to ensure that the flats and retirement bunglaows aimed specifically at buyers of a certain age, living outside of Wales, are no longer built in the numbers, and the concentrations, of the recent past.

Curbing this unsustainable influx would also ensure that the Planning Inspectorate could not engage in the black arts of planning as it has in Denbighshire – using one form of colonisation to demand another.

10 thoughts on “The Double Whammy

    1. Jac

      You’re right about the opposition, and its composition. This why such such referenda would never be allowed to be binding. Because even if the local authority agreed to abide by the democratic wishes of the people the power in such matters lies with the Planning Inspectorate, which answers to the Department for Communities and Local Government in London. And the Planning Inspectorate has an obvious agenda in Wales.

  1. Keith Parry

    . The Planning Inspectorate must be abolished and replaced by a Welsh National Planning Body, under the control of the Welsh Government dealing with all planning matters in Wales.

  2. daffy2012

    But if you had several of this referenda in Wales which went against the LDP’s then it would publicly show that there is something radically wrong with your so called ‘democracy’ in Wales. I surely must be the next step.

  3. Young people born and bred in Mumbles,Swansea cannot afford to purchase property in the area – Swansea City Council,with a complete lack of consideration for them,approved a development at the Mumbles Pier. This consists of luxury flats,ail tailor-made for the affluent who will use them as second homes or rent them to make their owners even richer. The traders were in favour as they were led to believe it would be good for business.
    It was all disguised in the belief that it would pay for the repair of the Pier,and provide easy access to the new Lifeboat house. When and IF this development is built I will be keeping a close eye on its level of occupation and if its simply another bit of Wales taken over by those using Welsh resources to make money to spend over the border!!!!

    1. Red ²

      Would it have helped young people in the Swansea area if the Council had refused planning permission for the development? If so, how?

    1. Jac

      This is rather weird. We are constantly told that fewer and fewer people can afford to buy, which means more are renting. So there are plenty of potential tenants. This company has received funding from the ‘Welsh’ Government, as have housing associations, yet it’s going bust. The whole social housing sector needs investigating.

  4. daffy2012

    O/T
    Saw this article on Golwg360:

    http://www.golwg360.com/newyddion/cymru/145114-penseiri-o-lundain-i-wneud-celf-pontio

    A London architectural company have been commissioned to design the inside of one of the floors for the Pontio center in Bangor.

    “Mae Prifysgol Bangor wedi cael £15m gan Lywodraeth Cymru a £12.5 miliwn gan Gronfa Datblygu Ranbarthol Ewrop i godi’r adeilad, sy’n agor fis Medi ar gost o £40 miliwn.”

    So, the Uni of Bangor receives money from the Welsh Government and from the European Reigional development fund totalling £40 million then give at least some of the work to a London company. OK it’s only £25 k but that would have been a lot of help to a local firm and besides, what’s the point of the ERDF? It will be interesting to find out who is give then contract to build the place. Somebody has commented on the story that an English construction company has been contracted to build the new student accommodation at Aber. Thought it might be of interest.

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