Comments on: Euro Elections: Picking Through The Bones

By: Llew

Llew — Sun, 01 Jun 2014 15:30:08 +0000

I didn’t sense that English people in Wales were abandoning the Tories (or to a very small extent the Greens). UKIP

By: Jac

Jac — Fri, 30 May 2014 18:27:38 +0000

I’ll read through it when I get a chance, but there’s nothing really surprising about the deprivation correlation. In the US South, South Africa and elsewhere it was the ‘poor whites’ who were most virulently racist, because they felt they had most to lose, or would be the first to lose, from an enfranchised black population. I’m sure the chairman of de Beers Mining didn’t really give a fuck about apartheid. That’s the mistake many socialists make – believing inequality is kept in place by big corporations and other enemies of the ‘workers’, and that white workers will join in fraternity with their black brothers. Ain’t so; common sense dictates that those with most to lose will raise the biggest objections to any change, political, social or otherwise. Just remind yourself who marched in support of Enoch Powell – London dockers to the van.

Another factor, certainly in the Valleys, is that no matter how things may have changed the Tories will be forever beyond the pale for many voters. Ukip, a new kid on the block, unburdened with historical baggage – Tonypandy, Thatcher, etc – got votes that the Tories couldn’t have got even with the same message.

A third factor, relating to the English in the rural and coastal areas, is that many of these, especially the better educated and /or the more affluent, might have found Mr Farage and his cohorts a bit common. And they’ve always got the Tories to vote for, unlike Dai in Tredegar.

By: Robert Tyler

Robert Tyler — Fri, 30 May 2014 15:09:55 +0000

Hello Royston. The following is from Roger Scully’s Elections Wales blog. What do you think?
“Ian has also run a couple of correlations for UKIP vote share by LA. One is with the percentage of the population of each LA born in England. Interestingly, the correlation here is fairly weak but also negative: on average UKIP scored a lower vote share where the English-born population was higher. The second is between UKIP vote share and the ’2011 Deprivation Index’ for each LA: here the correlation is moderate (r=0.30) but positive; this is consistent with the individual-level research on UKIP support, which suggests that far from being a party of ‘Golf Club Bores’ as some media stereotypes would suggest, UKIP support is drawn disproportionately from the socio-economic ‘left behinds’. Most people who vote for UKIP have never seen the inside of a golf club.”

By: Penddu

Penddu — Thu, 29 May 2014 20:39:21 +0000

Thinking more about this, for a new party to stand on regional list only makes perfect sense as the number of seats gained will be fairly proportional to votes. The threshold for winning a seat is around 6-8 % depending on other parties performances which is an achievable target – a ‘Llais y Fro’ standing in NW & MWW regions should be able to win 2 seats in each region, A ‘Welsh Democrat’ party focussing on the 3 southern regions should be able to do the same. That would shake up the Senedd!

By: Bill Chapman

Bill Chapman — Thu, 29 May 2014 17:15:37 +0000

“We can also safely assume that few would make the switch from Plaid Cymru to Ukip.” Sorry, you can’t assume that. While canvassing for the Welsh Labour Party, I met individuals in Llanrwst and Llandudno who made precisely that switch. These voters may well not have been died-in-the –wool nationalists, and they were simply moving from one party of protest to another. Labour did pick up a little support from historic LibDem voters, as you suggest. Incidentally, I came across a number of English-born people who normally vote for Plaid and did so in the Euro-elections.

By: Thinking Out Loud

Thinking Out Loud — Thu, 29 May 2014 14:09:38 +0000

In reply to Jac. Incoherent nonsense is right, it also proves what i thought before the election that Plaid Cymru like the other parties have no idea how to deal with UKIP's rise and if UKIP weren't so dangerous the original quotes above would be funny.

By: Jac

Jac — Thu, 29 May 2014 11:40:53 +0000

In reply to Thinking Out Loud. If I knew what that comment was trying to say I might respond. But I suppose it sums up Plaid's incoherence.

By: Thinking Out Loud

Thinking Out Loud — Thu, 29 May 2014 11:01:22 +0000

Good luck with the new political venture, it looks like it’s needed if this quote from a senior Plaid insider quoted on the Wales Eye blog is true

“We need to embrace change but present ourselves as a constructive opposition when that change affects ordinary people in Wales.

“We shouldn’t always play the nationalist card, and need to re-think things totally in the light of the European elections.”

http://waleseye.com/day/2014/05/28

By: Jac

Jac — Thu, 29 May 2014 10:10:31 +0000

In reply to daffy2012. John Tyler has commented on this blog, and I've encountered him elsewhere. He disagrees with me, but he's fair and reasonable. 'J Jones' is a different kettle of fish, bitter and nasty hiding behind faux politeness and artificial bonhomie. Totally opposed to everything Welsh, everything that makes Wales different.

By: daffy2012

daffy2012 — Thu, 29 May 2014 08:50:13 +0000

I’ve read the Stonemason’s contributions before and they different to Jon Jones’s in style. And doesn’t Jon Jones claim to live on Ynys Mon?