How to win elections.

No matter how inept, cowardly and treacherous Drakeford is, that will not stop people in Cardiff West from voting Labour. There is an element of ‘donkey vote’ just like in the valleys. Convincing these voters to change pattern by exposing Drakeford as a fraud, or by logical alternative argument on policy is helpful but it’s NOT the key to breaking that voting pattern.

It’s a bit like trying to convince those of religious adherence that it’s just nonsense, by explaining the facts of evolution, age of earth, or other scientific knowns. They adhere to a religion because they want to believe.

The same applies to the donkey vote for Labour. They want to believe that a promised land can be delivered and no matter how obvious that delivery of it is failing. In the mind of those who vote Labour, they will convince themselves that somehow these failures are as a result of ‘someone else’. It’s why ‘blame the Tories’ works even though Labour is responsible. It’s a bit like saying to those of religious adherence that bad things happen because of the ‘devil’.

The key to breaking the Labour vote is to understand the Labour voter.

Be of them. Not in terms of policy or saying the right thing, but by background, culture, living the same experiences, and self identity. The reason why the breakthrough candidate is so important, and why Neil McEvoy is so popular in Cardiff West, no matter how much he is slurred or slagged off by detractors. It’s not the cut of his suit, and he’s certainly not a well-polished mannequin. He’s exactly like anyone else who gets up in the morning to go to work in Cardiff West.

That’s how I think he’ll win the seat.

very encouraging piece of info there. Nice to know that the “real” people in Cardiff West don’t go much on posturing preening pseudos. As you say the hard core Tories will stick with whatever shyster the party chooses to nominate. As for the rest there is huge potential to draw voters away from Drakeford whose personal cred is seeping away at an alarming rate (alarming for his party, that is). Plaid opting for a “professional” a smooth talking cardboard cut-out in a suit will be like waving a red rag to a bull in large tracts of that constituency, where a genuine activist stance is much appreciated. So if NM ‘s crew plus those increasingly drawn to his personal banner without necessarily buying into the entire package step on the gas they could still achieve the biggest win ever. We live in increasing hope.

When I read “mutual masturbation” I feared we were back discussing the Ynys Mon crossbow killing.

Though I’m sure you’re right about the ‘more established’ or less trendy elements within the constituency. This is Neil McEvoy’s core vote. And he will also win over a few trendies, because they’re not all Labour and Plaid. A non-trendy element I know in that constituency, old-time nationalists, mates and drinking partners of Keith Parry, have given up on Plaid and will never vote Labour.

By dint of profession I suspect it unwise for practicing barristers to hob-knob with BBC journalists over avocado toasties and Chablis at trendy lunch counters in Pontcanna. Even if it does offer opportunities for mutual masturbation of their egos.

This will not win votes in Cardiff West for Plaid Cymru.

The Tory vote of Llandaf and St Fagons is unlikely to shift anywhere and whilst the trendy middle class vote of ‘young professionals’ and the ‘creative classes’ may shift between Labour and Plaid in the unique setting of Canton or Riverside, it’s not what will decide who wins Cardiff West.

Having taken the risk of touring the area in my Swans shirt, there’s a constituent vote of Cardiff West which are very friendly and informative. They talks tidy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypcZ7NuBxbU%5Bremovetoplay%5D
I wonders if Jac posts this.

That will be decided by those who work the checkouts at Culverhouse, the nurses who do shifts at UHW, and the men of high viz who short the recycling a Viridor. These are the ones who know who McEvoy is. Those who live by hand and mouth and reside in Ely and Fairwater. They are the ones who are deserting Labour and have switched or switching to McEvoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf5Ya4DwJyE%5Bremovetoplay%5D
The Westgate is closed.

I am also amused, if you walk a few hundred yards from Canton rail depot, you’ll find a distinct community of ‘ethnic’ background. Plaid Cymru appear to think that fronting a posh lady in a hijab will mop up this vote. How wrong they are. A chat over a vape and a falafel and you’ll find the slogan ‘It’s us’ translates as ‘It’s them’. They’ve seen through that posturing. The name of McEvoy, however, is always mentioned with affection and respect.

Many a dark was sunk in conducting this research.

Well they kept it on the down low. So they know people will react to it. Just reeks of contempt for Plaid members, supporters and the movement as a whole. They may say it isn’t and doesn’t… but they’re underrating the discontent within their own ranks I think – as Leanne did in the leadership race.

Will probably keep Drakeford in office as you say… and that may come with a myriad of issues as well. He’s become very unpopular over the RGH A+E closure and a lot of people I speak to seem to want rid of him and Labour in general. If Plaid are seen to have kept him in power it may come back to bite them – as will standing against another pro-Independence candidate when they made way for Unionists in the last election.

Its make or break for Plaid. They don’t see it… just like Labour doesn’t see their vote collapsing… as they didn’t see their vote collapse in Scotland a few years ago.

Thanks for the pointer. I did not know that Plaid had someone in place for Cardiff West. Personally I think the McEvoy/Plaid fallout will see Drakeford scrape back in which will be hell of a shame.

I see the Plaid man is a barrister. I don’t know if yet another lawyer is a good thing but he seems a sharp cookie. Though CVs aren’t always the best way to judge.

I suppose that “keeping your hand in” is an appropriate alternative method. Those big dock leaves in the hedges will command a premium when in season. Or back to the cut up newspaper on a nail, but don’t use the nail as you might impale youself.

I’m already working on it. I’ve rigged up a hose from the tap on the shed wall up through the bathroom window. Grandchildren will love it!

I may have been a bit hard on Bethan Sayed in the past. She has, in fairness, pitched in with invaluable advice to the world about how to clean our backsides, what with the shortage of bogroll in the shops.
https://twitter.com/bethanjenkins/status/1236264778030632961
I’m not sure it’ll catch on in my home. Seems a bit of a rigmarole, plus I’m not that good at aiming a hose, even in the wider confines of a garden or washing the car. I’d end up flooding our bathroom. The jug method might be better (or do you use it as well?) but I guess I’m too much a creature of habit nowadays, and my back end is too used to that comforting wipe with cushioned paper. So we’ll struggle on and hope Tesco continues to do us proud.
Don’t think I’ll be in a rush to shake hands with Ms Sayed if she’s ever round our way canvassing. I can always use coronavirus as an excuse, I suppose.