May 072015
 

I have, reluctantly, voted for Plaid Cymru. I did so because I want to show my support for the Scottish National Party and its mission to destroy this increasingly ugly construct called the Union. A ‘Union’ that was never anything other than England’s mini-empire in these islands but which, in recent decades, has corrupted further into a fiefdom of the City of London that now treats large parts of England herself as backward provinces to be ruled over by those who know best.

I made this decision because even though my views on Plaid Cymru have not changed since writing Plaid Cymru: Ninety Wasted Years this election is all about Scotland and maintaining the Union. Why else would we be hearing of the possibility of a Conservative-Labour coalition? Why else would the tabloids be running front pages in their Scottish editions that simper, ‘WE LOVE YOU, PLEASE STAY!’ while their editions south of the border pander to English nationalism with ‘FUCK OFF YOU SCOTCH BASTARDS!!!!’ (Maybe I exaggerate slightly.)

The reasoning that led me to vote Plaid today was summed up in a tweet I put out earlier, and the sentence with which I ended that tweet can be explained thus. Plaid Cymru contains many ‘pragmatists’, and others whose loyalty to Wales I question. These people will lose sight of the bigger picture to accept a few more crumbs, and at the back of their minds will be the possibility of again serving as Labour’s little helper after next year’s Assembly elections. If crumbs and coalitions come into play then it could transpire that Plaid Cymru will do the dirty on the SNP.

Plaid tweet

Why do I say that this election is all about Scotland? Well, to begin with, tell me what’s happening anywhere else that isn’t influenced by what’s happening in Scotland. Or just ask yourself, why is Labour unlikely to win a majority? It’s because of the seats it’s predicted to lose in Scotland to the SNP. Why are we even talking of a Conservative-Labour coalition of National Unity? it’s because of the threat posed to ‘national’ unity by the SNP. And of course the fact that these traditional enemies are contemplating coalition tells us that there are no longer any ideological differences between them, preserving the Union is the only game in town.

After being in Scotland last September for the independence referendum I wrote a few posts on Scotland, and in Beginning of the End on September 23rd, I wrote, “Scottish independence is guaranteed within a decade, and it probably won’t need a referendum“. Nothing has happened since to make me change my mind. We are entering the most turbulent period in the constitutional history of the United Kingdom since the partition of Ireland in 1920. The next few years will witness the slow, possibly messy, unravelling of the Union, and it will come about because of what is happening in Scotland . . . and the reaction to it in England, and not just from the politicians.

I am confident that five years from now we Welsh will be living under a very different constitutional settlement. How different that settlement is will depend on many factors, not least how Plaid Cymru plays its hand. To lose sight of the bigger picture, or to suffer a loss of nerve, would be catastrophic. Yes, to some extent Plaid Cymru must ride the SNP’s coat-tails, but the next few years will offer the chance of establishing a system in Wales that finally serves Welsh interests.

To throw all that away for crumbs and coalitions, and not to hold out for the bigger prize – as I fear Plaid Cymru will do – tells our masters that we Welsh, as ever, will settle for less, and they will treat us accordingly. So my message to Plaid Cymru is . . .

STICK WITH THE SNP! BREAK THE UNION!

UPDATE 08.05.2015: The election results from Scotland, with the SNP winning 56 out of 59 seats, means that constitutional change is now inevitable. The problem for us is that the abysmal failure of Plaid Cymru might mean that many in London will conclude that Wales is ‘safe’. The best hope may be that the new Tory government makes an issue of ‘reforming how the UK is run’ (including ‘English votes for English laws’) to avoid being seen as capitulating to the SNP.

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43 Comments on "Thoughts on Election Day 2015"

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Marconatrix
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If as you believe, and many of us hope, Scotland will be out of the Union within a few years, then you in Wales have just those few years to get your act together. Because once Scotland is independent it will be a ‘foreign country’ just as the Irish Republic is now, an so unable to interfere with ‘internal’ UK matters, and will in any case be fully occupied building its own nation. So you’ll be left alone to face the wrath of a rather bad-tempered England. A mangy old lion that’s just had its tail tweaked. Be glad you’ve been allowed a few years of grace and use them wisely. Hopefully events in Scotland over the past year or so will have shown Labour in its true colours. Can the situation in the SE of Wales really be very different from that in West Central Scotland? (That’s not rhetorical btw, I just don’t know why ‘Welsh’ ‘Labour’ hasn’t started to collapse yet).

Pob hwyl, beth bynnag 🙂

Westbay Watcher
Guest

Of course Labour will enter coaltion with Conservative and Plaid Cymru if it suits them. This happened in Swansea County Council ten years ago. Labour got themselves with the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru into a Coalition called the PLC to wrest council control of all the payed Chairs of Committees jobs from a coalition of Lib Dems and Independents. The Labour leader then was David Phillips and Plaid Cymruy was lead by a Darren Price and the Tories by a Rene Kinzett. They are now all yesterday’s men in Swansea.

Ap Dyfnallt
Guest

Supporting a larger party never does the smaller party any good. As the Lib-Dems are about to discover – and as Plaid discovered previously in their Assembly coalition with Labour.

If Plaid sells its soul to the Labour party for short term gain then they are finished in the long term.

Plaid should steer clear of any binding deals in Westminster and vote on principles and practicalities.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a Con-Lab coalition but I think it unlikely.
The Labour party hierarchy seriously underestimated the backlash against their support for the Tories in Scotland. If they underestimate the English backlash by forming a coalition in defence of the union – aka public schoolboy chums ( we’re all in it together, apart from us rich people ) then their traditional heartlands will be decimated in future.

Gwyn
Guest

I may well vote the same way as you Jac, due to lack of options but not with much enthusiasm. PC has always stood for Plaid Cymru for me, not Politically Correct and certainly not Privy Councillor (maybe it’s clearer in Welsh, cynghorydd lle chwech) and the ideas and ideals behind it were clear but no longer
It seems that the leadership in general have gone native, to be at the head of it is an end if not THE goal, to be at the Assembly is IT and to get to the House of Commons is the pinnacle and lets not start on the wanting to go to the House of Lords shame on them
Things that you have talked about, houses, in migration, Welsh schools, energy production, civil servants etc are left by the wayside whilst they do a massive amount of damage to our country
They need to set out and carry out a clear set of goals which are vitally important if we are not to become a county of England which is fast approaching, they would have to stick their necks out, they would have to work hard and all together not the different Section/Adran, which was the first thing that Alex Salmon did, “we’re all in the SNP, equal, together and this is the road we are travelling and that’s where we want to get to…….TOGETHER” and that takes the vision thing and then the doing thing
We should not be bullied into having labels that England want to put on us, socialist, left, left of center, left of Lenin or whatever, most of those are side issues and we fall for it
Do you think that this lot can handle that responsibility? Do you think that they want to handle it? If not, it is time to have a group which bring to the public’s attention (and the authorities) the devious ways that the system and it’s quislings are working against us
If the SNP do well, will this lot understand why? Will they get IT? And having got IT will they do something about it?Gwynfor Evans used to say “act as if you are independent” which I try to do and the ‘is it good for my country?’ questions become very clear, very quickly

Alun
Guest

After the events in Scotland it surprises me that Welsh Labour is on course to gain at least two more seats. As for Ceredigion and despite the alarming fact that only 55% of its inhabitants are Welsh born, and many of those are second and third generation of incomers from across the border, Plaid Cymru is putting up a good fight

Stan
Guest

As far as I can see, no matter which way the cards fall as to who gets in to No 10, Labour are now up shit creek without a paddle. I agree with Jac that Scotland will be on its own very soon. There are 533 seats in England, 294 of them Tory, 191 Labour (Wiki). Once Scotland is gone, even with the Welsh MPs (currently 26 Labour) I just don’t see how they can command a majority again. (I know there are a few seats (18) in Ireland but I think insignificant in the overall scheme of things). With England and Wales there are 573 seats to fight for, so a majority is obtainable with 287. The Tories have that right now with a little to spare, without horsedealing they could do with UKIP or NI parties if they needed.

Say Labour squeeze in this time. They have to hold power keeping the SNP and PC sweet – that will go down well in the areas they command in England. All that money keeping the welfare dependent, lazy Scots and Taffs in the manner to which they have become accustomed. So come the next election what do you think many of their supporters in England will do? And Labour have to persuade voters they have lost in Scotland that the money they will throw Scotland’s way is thanks to Labour and not the SNP – an impossible task surely when they are already signed up to austerity-lite.

We are privileged to live through the last days of a Party that long ago lost connection with where it came from, a dinosaur that failed to adapt to changing circumstance. I really can’t see what fresh ideas it can offer anymore and for the life of me (living in Neath) I cannot work out why so many blindly support it no matter what. Surely its only hope now would be to sign up to some sort of proportional representation which would at least assure them of a sizeable slice of any future cake . Otherwise, my prediction, to put it crudely, is they are fucked. And they know it. And I am LOVING it!

Ceri Digion
Guest

I wish I shared you view that developments in Scotland will put pressure on “Welsh” Labour to demand some sort of parity with Scotland. They (WL) have no original thought between them, and they had their chance at the original Devolution (grown man spits) Act. Their sun rises from England’s arse and they are blinded, not by its brilliance, but by the brown effluent which flows from that country’s orifice.

The Earthshaker
Guest

When I read your words I thought you’d probably regret writing them, but I didn’t think it would less than 24 hours later, Plaid Cymru’s miserable election campaign failure is bad enough, but seeing so many Plaid supporters saying it was a good result is frightening especially in light of the SNP’s spectacular results. Another batch of open goals were missed and what use are 3 Plaid MP’s now?

Last night also proved Wales really is natural Tory country right wing, bigoted, racist and intolerant, are we even a country anymore or are we full integrated into EnglandandWales after this result?

And does anyone know what the odds of a Tory/UKIP Welsh Government are after next years Assembly elections, it could be worth a punt!

dafis
Guest

2 days ago I commented that ………………………we are currently watching one of the most sterile political debates ever inflicted on the TV viewing public with candidates of all colours spewing out pre-rehearsed party lines on a limited range of big “ishoos” with red lines and other postures being all the rage. It’s a shame that even at local level there is little or no evidence that any of our prospective leaders or representatives are listening to real people. Any prospect of all this nonsense changing for the better within the next 5 – 10 years ?

Given the outcome, which certainly differs from my expectations, the sense of urgency required steps up a few gears. Plaid Cymru, our only indigenous representation, got dragged into a narrow agenda, repeating the same old mantras so while Leanne hardly ever slipped up badly she never showed up spectacularly either. So why should our dyed in the wool voting public be swayed by her ?. Also she wasn’t even a candidate and I think most people would be hard pressed to recall more than 5 or 6 names of Plaid candidates, plus the 3 defending seats. A colourless boring bunch who fitted in nicely with the rest of the Anglo Brit assortment on offer.

Looking at the bigger UK picture, the fact that the Tories have a working majority for now undoes much of the good of SNP’s sweeping victory, because the SNP bloc vote will not swing any decisions in the House. However one big elephant remains in the room – the hurried promises of Sept 2014 remain unfulfilled and that will give the beast Alex stacks of ammo to whack the government with ad nauseam. With a bit of luck he will piss them off so badly that they will invite Scotland to leave the Union ( not likely, but …..we can hope ! )

What that issue of unfilfilled promises does for the Welsh case remains a huge ? mark as a reduced pool of funds may lead to a raw deal for Wales especially as Ulster will also start pushing a claim for more loot. Depriving Wales of funds should provoke a rise in nationalist sentiment, but don’t bank on it as we seem to have a huge capacity for having a good moan and going home to develop a new style of grovelling. Indeed it could be a catalyst for a UKIP backed Tory regime in the Assembly post 2016 ( as speculated above ) as there are serious ” uncle Dai ” symptoms among our population showing willingness to become even more attached as long as there is a reasonable flow of funding for pet projects. Should end up competing with Albania, Montenegro etc for pole position in the tourist infested poverty league.

Big Gee
Admin

I also voted for Plaid Cymru (well Mike Parker – as I promised I would, and for the reasons I gave in an earlier thread). I haven’t voted for anyone since the early naughties, and wouldn’t have done so now, were it not for a little debt I felt I owed Mike Parker – NOT Plaid Cymru. Not that it made much difference, when it comes to politics Ceredigion is an odd beast, and ALWAYS out of sync with everywhere else! The last place in Cymru to become Liberal & the last place to let go of the now Lib Dems, as we witnessed this morning. Classic ‘ steady Eddie’ and cautious Cardis – who are always the last ones to put their toe in the water and the last ones to leave the water.

Toothless & spineless Plaid have painted themselves into a corner. The little mouse that lives in a corner of the cheese larder, never squeaks – for fear of drawing attention to itself – and spends most of it’s life fantasising about being a rat – like the fat rat called Labour that dominates the cheese larder.

The embarrassment of seeing the new political map of Cymru develop was only diminished by the ecstatic feelings of pride (and yes envy) that I felt as I watched our cousins from the north march relentlessly through the ranks of the ‘Unionists’ in the greatest political massacre ever witnessed – putting all in front of them to the sword. A true sight to behold. Wonderful! You’d hardly realise the magnitude of the feat, if you judged it by the comparatively silent response about the event from the English media this morning.

I can’t wait to see the mayhem that the ‘Beast of Gordon’ and his merry band will cause in the colonisers’ castle down south over the next few years.

Plaid will still be whimpering in the Bay. The rat in the larder will get ever fatter and once again we’ll be left staring longingly for a few crumbs off the table. Sickening. We can’t even argue that the Tories have no legitimacy in Cymru, now that our political map has swathes of blue all over it.

Stan
Guest

Agree with Dafis above about most people probably unaware of even the names of Plaid candidates. For instance – in Neath they are consistently runner-up to Labour but so far back it would be unrealistic to expect a Plaid gain. But did we get canvassing from any Party (Plaid included) where I live – no. Did I see much in the press about the Plaid candidate or Plaid itself – no. Did most people I spoke to about the local election know the name of the Plaid candidate – no. But article after article in the local paper placed by our former MP, Hain, and by or about the latest local carpetbagger Stephen (Boyo) Kinnock. To me, and I happily admit to being a new kid on the block with this politics lark, Plaid just isn’t selling itself and I don’t think enough people, me included, know exactly what it is selling. I’m not even sure where it sees itself in 5 or 10 years time – and this is a pretty basic question asked to any candidate that wants a job working for you. I think lots of people where I live still regard Plaid as a bunch of oddballs who all went to Welsh school, watch S4C, attend the Eisteddfod and talk funny when you walk into a shop. Sorry, I may be talking through my backside but that’s what I feel is the reaction to the Party by many in the valleys.

Like Labour I think they need to go into a room and take a long, hard look at themselves. I don’t know enough about Welsh politics and Plaid’s history to know if they can get any better. I’m left wondering if they have too little imagination and talent to grow into something better. But their next big test (Assembly elections) is only a year away. How embarrassing if they were to play third fiddle to Labour and UKIP in those. Maybe fourth fiddle – who knows?

dafis
Guest

Stan

If they don’t get their fingers out they will be back in 4th place jousting with the Lib Dems ! Labour will be up there ( or thereabouts ) purely on force of habit and tradition which has to be eroded away by Plaid for the Nationalist cause to get anywhere, and the Tories having enjoyed a bit of a rush in these parts will be up for a fight, with UKIP invading the picture as the upstarts on the block having a much more pushy rebellious image ( regardless of what you or I really think of them ).

Earthshaker earlier touched on the now visible change in political characteristics of Wales. That’s why UKIP has traction, people fear/dislike foreign immigrants into England more than they fear or dislike Anglos tumbling over Clawdd Offa into Wales, yet relatively few E Europeans/Asians/ Africans have made it this far west compared to the communities that inhabit parts of the English Eastern Counties. We don’t really have that much of a problem with those peoples, it’s the “Anglos wiv lodsamoney” that are screwing up our communities along with the dysfunctionals that our 3rd sector seem so content to import as a matter of preference.

So Plaid Cymru needs to re focus and start being more subtle about “fair funding and begging bowls” and state clearly that a primary quid pro quo in making calls for such funding would be “no relocation of duds into Wales”, reduction ( or preferably elimination) of 3rd sector “make work” entities that thrive on initiating problems and sucking up funds to deal with said problems. In addition UK government to dump any support for TTIP or any similar initiative that enables multi national corporations to stick their greedy snouts even further into domestic jurisdiction, be it public or private sector activity.

Funding should instead be driven towards health and social care, real education needs ( as opposed to the superficial training nonsense currently attracting huge amounts of cash yet really amounting to nothing other than a subsidy to businesses ) and infrastructure projects across Wales ( not just a new bit of M4 by Newport ). Arrest the decline, then drive forward to modernise. This will need real initiative not the rash of “initiativitis” that has existed in the Welsh Assembly since the day it opened for business.

D Morris
Guest

Unlike you Jac I couldn’t bring myself to vote Plaid Cymru. I, like other Welsh nationalists, rejected PC & its cosy relationship with the Brit establishment. Any vote for Plaid Cymru would gave its policy makers misguided encouragement and that would be like giving a rotting corpse a blood transfusion……..pointless.

Marconatrix
Guest

So if you abandon Plaid, where do you go? Clearly some go to UKIP, out of desperation presumably? Is there a vacuum waiting to be filled as more and more people in the SE get sick of Labour? If so who or what can fill it? And remember, nature abhors a vacuum.

Carnabwth
Guest

On election day, Radio Wales was a politics ‘free zone’. So they decided to remenisc about VE day and the shared suffering which was of course a day early. They had a historian on there which made Dai Smith sound like a raving Welsh nationalist. And some older lady phoned in to suggest that people should remember the sacrifices etc when voting on that day to which she was told to stop as it was a politics free day. 🙂 The other story they were pushing was that some bloke had set up a web site and was asking for people to vote for a ‘national’ bird for Britain. Was this accidental do you think?

dafis
Guest

When it comes to the BBC in Wales ( as opposed to BBC Wales/Cymru which is a false flag construct ) nothing is accidental unless a raving language activist slips through the fine mesh net, and most likely he/she would get edited out anyway.

dafis
Guest

just found this on golwg360

http://www.golwg360.com/newyddion/cymru/186122-wigley-gwersi-iw-dysgu

look out for 2 comments from a bloke called Roberts , in Welsh. Now I am bilingual but can’t translate properly for toffee so you’ll have to “phone a friend ” . The guts of it is much in line with that said on this site, that Plaid cannot, should not, engage in any smug self satisfaction over this campaign. In the end I added a brief comment telling Plaid to stop learning lessons, but to start the course again from the beginning. Not terribly helpful criticism I know, but getting pissed off with cliches like “lessons learned”, “having conversations2 and all the other crap that is emitted by spin merchants.

Marconatrix
Guest

Roberts bottom (earliest) comment reads :

“Lord Wigley the leader of the PC campaign? I was not aware of any such effort, I’m afraid. Campaign? Apart from the excellent unassisted single-handed effort from Leanne on behalf of what remains of the nation (after the destruction wrought at the hands of her predecessor!) They present themselves as candidates and expect the voters to make the running for them, and then put a cross against their names.That was their intention, wasn’t it just? I haven’t heard a single argument for national rights from any of them for years now. They never open their mouths on behalf of Wales here in Wales, nor in the Union of England and Scotland either — the state we’re living in — but fair dos to them, they were really keen and very quick off the mark go over the top over the matter of the wee lass in the union between two, to hold the coats of the SNP and distribute their pamphlets.”

Best I can do, but I’ve no idea what he’s referring to at the end.

Marconatrix
Guest

Roberts second (top) comment reads :

“All the while Winnie [Ewing]’s fledglings up in Scotland, who’d been inspired by Gwynfor’s success in envisioning new possibilities, were keeping the faith and working away to build up their nation, stone upon stone, Gwynfor’s sucessors here in Wales were planning their personal careers and taking for granted the support they found (in those districts not yet overrun by strangers naturally, including a not insignificant contribution from Scots along with the English btw), and were perfectly happy to swagger around London, I recall seeing one of them being referred to as a “dedicated follower of fashion” in a local London paper, while his successor in that same profitable seat gave angry speeches in the Commons over the deficiencies of Tommy’s kit in Afghanistan, and the disgrace of keeping the Elgin Marbles in the British Museum rather than returning them to Greece. Oh! The shame of having to face ones Greek friends when on an expensive holiday abroad, etc. etc. Yes, the success of the SNP is a quite unfathomable secret!”

[I trust that captures most of it]

dafis
Guest

well done that’s a tip top job – I speak Welsh, I write Welsh moderately well but translating the written word is beyond me for some weird ( or might it be wired ? ) reason.

The Alexiad
Guest

It’s interesting to look at the what the result would have been under the new Parliamentary boundaries that will eventually be implemented (see the map below the first video):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11593496/New-Commons-boundaries-top-Conservative-government-agenda.html

Whilst the new boundaries will result in as many 20 additional seats for the Tories in England, in Wales 6 of the 11 newly elected Tories would never have been elected. (I wonder how much of a fight they will put up to stop these proposals from being implemented?)

Plaid would have gained Ceredigion & N.Pembs but lose Ynys Mon & Bangor remaining static on 3.

Labour would be down 2 and the Lib Dems would go the way of the Norwegian blue.

Brychan
Guest

It appears that the new Tory administration in Westminster is perusing an appeasement policy towards Scotland, and every time Sturgeon asks for more powers, she gets another concession. It’s the Parnell principle, and no doubt the SNP will pursue a policy of obstructionalism in Westminster. For Wales this may have a dire effect, Plaid being tame, and Labour in turmoil. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a re-appointed Sec of State for Wales announcing thousands of jobs in Milford Haven for nuclear submarines. That would certainly bring some spice into the Welsh elections next year.

Big Gee
Admin

I’ve come to the conclusion that ALL of the world’s insane political systems and the guaranteed apocalyptical crash that capitalism is heading for (which is highlighted by the shit that goes round and round in circles and makes no progress) is futile and a waste of precious time. It’s totally screwed up. Greed, love of money, lack of humanity, thirst for power (that can’t be quenched) and man’s insane inhumanity towards man through oppression and wars is a cataclysmic cocktail that will end in total disaster for the human race. We simply cannot carry on like this – it’s doomed to failure on a global scale. What everyone is engaged in is the process of painting the funnels on the Titanic as the ship slips below the waves.

I’m seriously thinking of joining the Ubuntu party.

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