May 272014
 

Now that the dust has settled let’s see who’s still standing, who counts as walking wounded, and who might be deserving of a coup de grâce. Below you’ll find a table I’ve compiled giving a breakdown of the results. (Click to enlarge.) For comparison, the 2009 results can be found lower down. (Again, click to enlarge.) Further statistics and tables for 2014 can be found at the Pembrokeshire County Council website or at Welsh not British, where young Mr Evans has produced yet more easy-to-read graphics. (Though I got confused!)

Recent posts may also be of interest. First, my Wales Euro Election 2014: Runners and Riders and then my brief, pre-election biography of Nathan Gill, Ukip No 1 in Wales. Finally, bear in mind that the results were declared by local authority not by Westminster or Assembly constituencies. So while Anglesey council is the same as the constituency, this is rarely the case elsewhere, with some authorities containing more than one constituency and some constituencies straddling local government boundaries.

First, let’s get some of the minor parties out of the way. I cannot understand why NO2EU, Socialist Labour and the Socialist Party of Great Britain bothered standing. These three hard Left parties got a total of just 1.2% of the vote. I suppose it’s a platform, and a way of advertising themselves, but beyond that . . .

Moving over to the other extreme of the political spectrum we find the British National Party and its former members in Britain First. Their combined total was 1.9%. A great disappointment for the BNP, which got 5.4% of the vote at the previous Euro elections. I shall return anon to the BNP.

The performance of the Greens was patchy, ranging from 2.3% in Blaenau Gwent to 8.0% in Ceredigion. Nationally the party got 4.5% which was down on the 5.6% of five years ago. With all the environmentalist brainwashing going on in our schools I would have expected the Green vote to be rising. Then again, maybe many Greens ‘lent’ their vote to Plaid Cymru this time round to save Plaid’s skin. (Something else I shall return to.)

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One of the shocks of this election was of course the near-annihilation of the Liberal Democrats. Now you know my views on the Lib Dems, but I’m not a man to gloat, so (putting aside the party hat and champagne bottle) I will stick with the facts. Nationally, the Lib Dem vote dropped from 10.7% in 2009 to 3.9% last Thursday. The candles in the gloom were where you’d expect to find them: 12.9% in Powys and 11.4% in Ceredigion. But even these were poor figures considering that we are dealing here with areas containing (or until recently containing) Liberal Democrat AMs and MPs.

Elsewhere, the picture is one of unrelieved bleakness: votes of less than 3% in Anglesey, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot, Pembrokeshire, Rhondda Cynon Taff and Torfaen. The centre ground is obviously overcrowded, and being in coalition with the Tories has its price. This result is part of a decline also found outside Wales, and when we add in the findings of opinion polls, it could be that the Liberal Democrats are coming to the end of the line as a serious political party.

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Euro election 2009Given the result achieved by Ukip, and the added factor this time round of having been in government at Westminster for four years, the Conservatives will be quite satisfied – if not relieved – to have hung on to 17.4% of the vote, down from 21.2% in 2009. The Tories’ lowest vote was 6.2% in Blaenau Gwent, and they got votes below 10% in three other Valleys authorities; with the highest vote, unsurprisingly, being 33.2% in Monmouthshire. This year’s vote was just two percentage points down from 2004.

As for Labour, 28.1% looks excellent when compared with 20.3% in 2009. But 2009 was an election influenced by Gordon Brown being PM and leading an unpopular government heading for defeat in the general election of 2010. To put Labour’s result last Thursday into a longer term perspective, their 28.1% takes them closer to the 32.5% they achieved in 2004. Labour’s lowest vote was 10.3% in Ceredigion and the highest 46.5% in Blaenau Gwent. Which leaves us with just Ukip and Plaid Cymru to consider. Plaid first.

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Plaid scraped home to retain its MEP by just a few thousand votes and a share of 15.3%, compared with 18.5% in 2009 and 17.4% in 2004. The percentage share varied wildly, from 43.5% in Gwynedd to 6.3% in Monmouthshire. Only four local authorities (out of 22) gave Plaid a percentage share above 20%. I have made my views on Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales known in many previous posts: they are a party that reached a ‘plateau’ of support under Dafydd Wigley from which they have been falling back steadily since he was deposed. And if, as we were being told prior to the voting, many Greens, Liberal Democrats and other ‘progressive elements’ were voting Plaid in order to stop Ukip getting a second seat, then the result is even worse.

Plaid’s support was concentrated along the west side of the country, as it has been throughout the party’s history, and even though 118,479 people in the south decided to stick two fingers up to the three main UK parties they chose to do it by voting Ukip rather than Plaid Cymru. Think about that – tens of thousands of working class Welsh people in the Valleys chose ex-public school ‘Frenchy’ Farage and his golf club bigots in preference to Plaid Cymru. Plaid Cymru has completely failed to break through in Denis Balsom’s ‘Welsh Wales’, among those who described themselves as ‘Welsh Only’ in the 2011 census; this failure, coupled with its heartland being colonised (without any protest from Plaid!) guarantees the eventual – and hopefully speedy – demise of this faux national party.

Yet there are those thankful for a ‘nationalist’ party as incompetent and unthreatening as Plaid Cymru. Given the fact that Plaid losing its MEP might have set in train events resulting in consequences unpalatable to such people, I can’t help wondering if, somewhere along the road to Abergwaun, Wales didn’t experience another deus ex machina moment to compare with what happened in Carmarthen back in September 1997.

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Now we come to the undoubted stars of the show, even if they didn’t quite manage to top the bill: Ladies and gentlemen – the United Kingdom Independence Party! Let me concede that this was a spectacular result for Ukip, so let’s consider where it might lead. But before that, let’s set the context by saying that Ukip’s share of the vote has risen from 10.5% in 2004 to 12.8% in 2009 to 27.6% in 2014. By any standards, quite spectacular; though it’s not immediately obvious where the votes came from.

By which I mean, between 2009 and 2014 the Ukip vote increased by 114,398, and in percentage share terms from 12.8 to 27.6. In other words, it more than doubled. Yet the Labour vote also increased from 138,852 to 206,332, or 20.3% to 28.1%. So little if any of Ukip’s vote came from Labour. We can also safely assume that few would make the switch from Plaid Cymru to Ukip. Which leaves the Tories, Liberal Democrats and the British National Party. Yet the Tory vote was down by less than 20,000 on 2009, so we must assume that many who had previously used the Lib Dems as their protest vote switched to Ukip this time. (While others went to Labour.) Another source of votes was obviously the BNP; something admitted by leader Nick Griffin, who says his lost supporters will be back when they realise Ukip can’t deliver on immigration. (And the BNP can!) Finally, while Ukip may have picked up the votes of the disenchanted and the gullible in the Valleys; in Powys, the north, and rural areas, we can safely say that Ukip had far more appeal to English residents than to Welsh.

If those are the sources of Ukip’s votes then these, I believe, are the factors that helped Ukip achieve its success. First, the desire among a large section of the electorate to use elections that don’t really matter to put the boot into established politics, and lazy and corrupt establishment politicians – so they voted for ‘Farage the outsider’. Second, genuine, but non-racist, concerns about immigration and how it affects the social life or character of communities. Third, a protest against something very few of them really understand called ‘Europe’ and its increasing control over their lives. Fourth, Lib Dem voters deserting to what they perceive to be another ‘protest’ party. Fifth, Ukip still has novelty value and has been promoted by large sections of the media, including the BBC, which made Farage almost a permanent member of the Question Time panel and other programmes. Which raises an intriguing question . . .

Many can see that the BBC has in the past few years has taken on the role of State broadcaster. Whether this was as a result of a decision taken within the BBC, or a role taken on at the behest of others, need not bother us here. This change has manifested itself in the plethora of programmes now prefixed by ‘Great British’ and the clear bias in reporting the Scottish referendum debate. So the question has to be, why is the BBC giving a free ride to this threat to the established order, portraying Farage as a good egg who enjoys a pint and a ciggie? I’m open to suggestions, but my belief is that we are witnessing here the ‘elastic theory’ in practice; by which I mean, Ukip is being used to legitimise certain issues that were previously taboo, or the preserve of extremists, and therby move political debate to the Right. From the confusion created by this shift will soon emerge – to steal Ukip’s clothes – a ‘repositioned’ Conservative Party. There may even be a place for the unquestionably popular Nigel Farage in the New Conservative Party. Either way, it will mean the end of Ukip as a major political force. Though of course, there were those who thought they could do something similar with Hitler in 1930s Germany.

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Looking ahead, I see that Mr Gill, our new Ukip MEP, is quoted as saying, “the Valleys are ours for the taking”, meaning that he expects to win Westminster and Assembly seats in this region. I have no way of knowing from which of his orifices these words emanated, but Mr Gill is an Englishman, living on Anglesey, who knows as much about the Valleys as I do about the Hindu Kush. Which is why I never talk of that region. Ergo he talks bollocks. For he knows as well as I do – or should – that Ukip is a protest vote for elections that people don’t take seriously. Which explains why the party has not a single MP, MSP or AM. Ukip has as much chance of winning Merthyr or Blaenau Gwent next year, or in 2016, as I have of winning the Kentucky Derby. And yet . . .

The threat of Ukip having some success in England at next year’s general election, and perhaps holding the balance of power, remains. (I have heard electoral pacts with the Conservatives mooted.) So put yourself in the position of someone in Scotland who has not yet decided how to vote in the independence referendum. Maybe you’re having a pint in an East End bar, or relaxing at home in Inverurie, when who pops up on the television but Nigel Farage. He says that you Scottish chaps (and he’ll use the word ‘chaps’) should be very grateful to be ruled by chaps like him; so you should forget all this independence nonsense because you’re ‘too wee and too poor’ (said in an appalling Scottish accent, an attempt at humour). Then he signs off with ‘Toodle-pip’. Do you think this intervention, and the possibility of a Tory-Ukip coalition after May 2015, might influence Scottish voters?Farage Salmond Tweet

We all know the answer, yet some Ukip people are urging Farage to get involved in the Scottish referendum debate, to put Alex Salmond in his place. (Telling us that Nathan Gill isn’t the only Ukipper struggling with political and other realities.) Which takes me back to the BBC. Why is the Great British Broadcasting Corporation giving an armchir ride to the man who could ‘lose’ Scotland? For no matter what some in Ukip may think I must believe that wiser counsels will tell Farage to stay out of the Scottish independence debate because, being so quintissentially English in a rather annoying way, he can only harm the Unionist cause. But will he listen? We shall see. Whatever the future holds the way Farage and Ukip have been handled thus far by both the political establishment and the mainstream media is perplexing. I can only assume that there is a longer game being played.

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In conclusion, let me just say a few things that might, hopefully, summarise what I feel about Ukip and the wider Welsh political scene. First, we should thank Ukip for exposing that the ‘socialist roots’ of the Valleys are, for many Valleys’ residents, as shallow as their own leader. When working class and unemployed Welsh people in some of the most deprived parts of Europe can vote for a party whose social policies come close to advocating sterilisation of the poor, then we know that the old certainties are gone, and it’s all up for grabs.

A Welsh academic, writing on Daily Wales, suggested that Ukip, by demanding that immigrants become fluent in English, had somehow released a genie that allowed language activists to demand that people moving into the Welsh-speaking areas of the west should learn Welsh. My comments can be found on the article. But he’s half right. The real lesson though is that by detoxifying the subject of immigration Ukip should have made it easier for us to discuss English immigration into Wales. Far greater in scale and effect than anything England is experiencing.

Finally, given the slow death of Plaid Cymru and other changes taking place in Welsh politics, I feel that the time is now right for nationalists to at least discuss setting aside their differences and uniting behind agreed Regional List candidates for the 2016 elections to the Notional Assembly. The advantages could be many. The elections would provide a platform to promote a more focused message than our people have heard for decades. It would also give the opportunity to challenge Ukip in the only route by which they can hope to achieve Assembly Members. And for Plaidistas reading this, it might provide the kick up the arse most of you know your party needs.

  32 Responses to “Euro Elections: Picking Through The Bones”

  1.  

    Thank you, a clearly articulated article encapsulating exactly what i have been thinking…

    But the one thing that is still bugging me is what is the agenda that ALL the media are playing out? any other major party who had gone into that election without a manifesto would have been lambasted… Yet UKIP get a free ride…

    I can see why people voted for them, if i had only read the papers, especially the red tops, i would have thought that he was an outsider with just the one issue… Thats why UKIP “did not appeal to the educated”, we did the research and found out what they were really like…

    I just hope that the end result of this and the Scottish independence vote is that we really can have a meaningful debate with tangible results to improve the status and security of Welsh language and culture…. Not sure I’m going to hold my breath tho…

  2.  

    You have pretty much summed up my own conclusions – Plaid are looking the wrong way in the Valleys, which will only alienate their core voters in Y Fro. What Wales needs is two new parties – one which is unequivocally Welsh/Cymraeg – based on supporters of Cymdeithas, Cymuned, Llais etc and which should stand for election on regional list in North and MidWest – in direct competition to Plaid – let Plaid focus on its 6 constituency targets for now.

    A second party which is aimed at the “Welsh Wales” voters of the Valleys – a centre right party which has economic regeneration as it’s prime policy but which must also place Welsh sovereignty above unionist pandering. This “Welsh Democrat” party should appeal to those UKIP protestors, Liberal/SDP flirters, and soft Plaid & Labour voters. Standing again on the regional list – but across Wales.

    Both new parties could provide a real alternative to Welsh voters and allow a number of alternative coalitions to develop. In due course they could even join together to form a new Plaid Cymru.

    Far from standing up for Wales, the existing Plaid Cymru is encouraging UK unionists.

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      There’s two years before the Assembly elections and so from now on I’m going to push the idea of nationalists standing for the regional lists.

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      Totally agree. UKIP has shown that the Labour vote is there for the taking… but Plaid is incapable of appealing to the Valleys.

  3.  

    Jane; “Thats why UKIP “did not appeal to the educated”, It reads like you’re making the same mistake that the other snobbish political pundits made. Are you suggesting that those who voted for UKIP are all stupid? Tut tut tut!

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      Dennis, I don’t think Jane meant that they were stupid, but I have to ask how much Ukip’s voters in the Valleys know about the party they voted for. Do they know it’s not just just anti-immigrant, or anti-EU, but also, because it’s so thoroughly English, it is anti-Welsh. That’s the wider problem – too many are giving Ukip an easy ride because they don’t understand how dangerous it is, or else they think they can use it, then discard it when it’s served its purpose.

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        Based on the article you quoted int your tweet, i think the use and discard hypothesis is most likely, however the assumption that they will never get a Westminster MP is highly dangerous given the free ride they have been having up till now…
        .https://twitter.com/jacothenorth/status/471375189985726464

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          No, I say it’s possible they will get MPs, especially if they come to an ‘arrangement’ with the Tories, and that’s why Ukip could be a big asset to the Yes campaign in Scotland.

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            I couldn’t agree more.

            My comment on seeing the election map turn purple was – well that pretty much guarantees a Scottish YES vote!

    •  

      Nope i was actually quoting Farage’s response to why UKIP did not succeed in London…. HE may or may not think that …

      I am however suggesting that anyone who gets their news information only fromTV and newspapers will get a different view of UKIP from those who have done additional research, even if it is only reading the preceding article here on the subject of Nathan Gill…

  4.  

    I followed your link to the ‘Daily Wales’. I am not J Jones.

    After reading comments from UKIP supporters, it is easy to suggest that they are all stupid but there is a difference between stupidity and ill-informed. Many Kippers are convinced that all of the main parties are liars and that any comments from people who they label as intelligent are biased against Farage.

    Someone who is convinced that all those who appear to be in control are against them is easy prey for the devious who claim to be on their side. Once netted by an experienced con merchant masquerading as like-minded and anti-State the captive feels, paradoxically, as if they’re experiencing freedom from what has shackled them and a golden age is just around the corner.

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      I have a good idea who ‘J Jones’ is and I never suspected it was you. I know who you are.

      Are you suggesting that M. Farage is a – I hesitate to repeat it – “con merchant”?

      •  

        J. Jones is Jon the retired Stonemason. A gentleman that I always agree to disagree with. Jon is a person who honestly opposes Welsh nationalism, but is always happy to discuss the issue in a reasonable way. Jon and I have feuded about the national cause for many years but always with mutual respect. Jon is not, and never has been a troll!

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          Thank you for that, Alwyn. Are you also saying this person is Welsh? He obviously doesn’t do much stonework now because I find his name on just about every site I visit. And he’s never a casual caller, that’s what makes people suspicious. That, plus his vast wealth of knowledge and memory.

  5.  

    D Morris,
    It was a Ukip spokesperson Suzanne Evans that admitted Ukip had difficulty appealing to the educated and cultured – live on Radio 4.

    •  

      Apologies, Docks Soul is correct, i read the quote second hand in the independent and missed the correct attribution.

  6.  

    The problem that I have with any readings of the runes from the Euro Elections is that so few voted. Our No 1 MEP succeeded to persuade about 11% of the total electorate to vote for him and our No 4 MEP got a massive 4% mandate!

    The 4% that Plaid has is interesting though. Every single opinion poll published in the past 30 years has put support for Welsh Independence within the +- range of 10%, most opinion polls suggest that just under half of Plaid Voters support independence. So 8 out of every ten of us who support independence jibbed out of voting for the only national party on the ballot paper, but worse still the anti Plaid Nationalist who criticise Plaid and claim a purer vision could have have captured that 8% wasted vote and come second if they hadn’t jibbed out of ensuring that another nationalist choice was on the paper. What has not standing and not voting achieved?

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      That’s why I’m suggesting there is an alternative nationalist option in the 2016 Assembly elections (Lists), and we can take it from there.

  7.  

    J.Jones is not Stonemason, stonemason is John Tyler of Caerphilly, now retired I spend my time helping an autistic friend and managing diabetes, occasionally leaving comments with the BBC blogs as “John”. Thank you Alwyn for not considering me a troll.

    •  

      Very many apologies, John Tyler, for mixing you up with Jon Jones. The comments about a decent opponent with whom I disagree entirely, but respect as an honest person whose opinions are sincerely held, were about you and I stand by them.

  8.  

    I will be a KIpper MP from Wales.

  9.  

    I’ve read the Stonemason’s contributions before and they different to Jon Jones’s in style. And doesn’t Jon Jones claim to live on Ynys Mon?

    •  

      John Tyler has commented on this blog, and I’ve encountered him elsewhere. He disagrees with me, but he’s fair and reasonable. ‘J Jones’ is a different kettle of fish, bitter and nasty hiding behind faux politeness and artificial bonhomie. Totally opposed to everything Welsh, everything that makes Wales different.

  10.  

    Good luck with the new political venture, it looks like it’s needed if this quote from a senior Plaid insider quoted on the Wales Eye blog is true

    “We need to embrace change but present ourselves as a constructive opposition when that change affects ordinary people in Wales.

    “We shouldn’t always play the nationalist card, and need to re-think things totally in the light of the European elections.”

    http://waleseye.com/day/2014/05/28

    •  

      If I knew what that comment was trying to say I might respond. But I suppose it sums up Plaid’s incoherence.

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        Incoherent nonsense is right, it also proves what i thought before the election that Plaid Cymru like the other parties have no idea how to deal with UKIP’s rise and if UKIP weren’t so dangerous the original quotes above would be funny.

  11.  

    “We can also safely assume that few would make the switch from Plaid Cymru to Ukip.” Sorry, you can’t assume that. While canvassing for the Welsh Labour Party, I met individuals in Llanrwst and Llandudno who made precisely that switch. These voters may well not have been died-in-the –wool nationalists, and they were simply moving from one party of protest to another. Labour did pick up a little support from historic LibDem voters, as you suggest. Incidentally, I came across a number of English-born people who normally vote for Plaid and did so in the Euro-elections.

  12.  

    Thinking more about this, for a new party to stand on regional list only makes perfect sense as the number of seats gained will be fairly proportional to votes. The threshold for winning a seat is around 6-8 % depending on other parties performances which is an achievable target – a ‘Llais y Fro’ standing in NW & MWW regions should be able to win 2 seats in each region, A ‘Welsh Democrat’ party focussing on the 3 southern regions should be able to do the same. That would shake up the Senedd!

  13.  

    Hello Royston. The following is from Roger Scully’s Elections Wales blog. What do you think?
    “Ian has also run a couple of correlations for UKIP vote share by LA. One is with the percentage of the population of each LA born in England. Interestingly, the correlation here is fairly weak but also negative: on average UKIP scored a lower vote share where the English-born population was higher. The second is between UKIP vote share and the ’2011 Deprivation Index’ for each LA: here the correlation is moderate (r=0.30) but positive; this is consistent with the individual-level research on UKIP support, which suggests that far from being a party of ‘Golf Club Bores’ as some media stereotypes would suggest, UKIP support is drawn disproportionately from the socio-economic ‘left behinds’. Most people who vote for UKIP have never seen the inside of a golf club.”

    •  

      I’ll read through it when I get a chance, but there’s nothing really surprising about the deprivation correlation. In the US South, South Africa and elsewhere it was the ‘poor whites’ who were most virulently racist, because they felt they had most to lose, or would be the first to lose, from an enfranchised black population. I’m sure the chairman of de Beers Mining didn’t really give a fuck about apartheid. That’s the mistake many socialists make – believing inequality is kept in place by big corporations and other enemies of the ‘workers’, and that white workers will join in fraternity with their black brothers. Ain’t so; common sense dictates that those with most to lose will raise the biggest objections to any change, political, social or otherwise. Just remind yourself who marched in support of Enoch Powell – London dockers to the van.

      Another factor, certainly in the Valleys, is that no matter how things may have changed the Tories will be forever beyond the pale for many voters. Ukip, a new kid on the block, unburdened with historical baggage – Tonypandy, Thatcher, etc – got votes that the Tories couldn’t have got even with the same message.

      A third factor, relating to the English in the rural and coastal areas, is that many of these, especially the better educated and /or the more affluent, might have found Mr Farage and his cohorts a bit common. And they’ve always got the Tories to vote for, unlike Dai in Tredegar.

  14.  

    I didn’t sense that English people in Wales were abandoning the Tories (or to a very small extent the Greens). UKIP

Ok, you’ve read what I think, now what do you have to say?